Monmouth University Poll
Frank Pallone (D)-53%
Anna Little (R)-41%
Undecided-6%
Little leads 51-38 of independent voters, but the district has a 2-1 Democratic registration edge, and Little is only winning over 8% of Democrats. Pallone has decent favorables and job approval. This should be Pallone’s closest election in a while, but you’d still have to say it is Likely Democrat at best (or worst) depending on your preference.
As I said in another thread, it’s Monmouth County that’s giving Pallone problems. He’s up big in the inland areas. The shore counties were the ones that led the 1990 tax revolt. They’re good breeding grounds for teabagger types.