SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 (Morning Edition)

  • IL-Sen: My god, Mark Kirk is an asshole. The excellent ArchPundit catches Kirk bragging about funding “the largest voter protection” operation in 15 years in “key vulnerable precincts” where “the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat.” And pray tell which precincts are those? Says Kirk: “South and West Side of Chicago, Metro East, Rockford.” Those aren’t just Dem strongholds – they happen to be the places where almost all of the African Americans in Illinois live. What a fucker. “Jigger,” huh.
  • KY-Sen: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to Kentucky to campaign for Jack Conway on Monday.
  • OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):
  • Lee Fisher (D): 36 (35)

    Rob Portman (R): 55 (55)

    Undecided: 8 (9)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • OH-Gov: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):
  • Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)

    John Kasich (R): 50 (54)

    Undecided: 7 (7)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • IL-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is joining Gov. Pat Quinn for a rally in Chicago on October 12th at the Chicago Journeymen Plumbers Local 130 Hall.
  • NY-Gov: Carl Paladino, international man of mystery? The noted scuzzball is apparently buying time on all the networks for 5 p.m. today to make a “major announcement.” Sounds pretty stunty to me.
  • SC-Gov (PDF): Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Vincent Sheheen (10/1-4, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):
  • Vincent Sheheen (D): 44 (41)

    Nikki Haley (R): 49 (51)

    Undecided: 7 (8)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • CO-03: Morans.
  • IL-14: A Randy Hultgren internal from the Tarrance Group shows him leading Dem Rep. Bill Foster 44-38, with 4 points going to Green Party candidate Daniel Kairis.
  • MD-01: Clinton Alert 2.0! The Big Dog is holding a fundraiser in Washington, D.C. this Sunday for Rep. Frank Kratovil. Man, after all the work he’s done this cycle, I hope Clinton has a phat vacation planned for after election day.
  • SC-02: Rob Miller says he won’t vote to retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. He also said that he plans to draft Joe DiMaggio in his fantasy baseball league next year and that he’s getting his wife a jetpack for Christmas.
  • Fundraising:

    • FL-Sen: Marco Rubio, $5 million raised (a new record)
    • NRCC: Securing a $6.5 million loan

    SSP TV:

    • MA-Gov: Deval Patrick hits Charlie Baker for raising premiums as a healthcare CEO (while noting that he capped them as governor)
    • FL-Gov: Rick Scott tries to paint Alex Sink as a hypocrite on various financial goings-on during her tenure as state CFO
    • FL-08: A new spot from Alan Grayson hits Webster on women’s issues
    • MA-04: Republican Sean Bielat is out with two ads (apparently cable only): the first attacks Barney Frank on the bailout (and features someone calling Bielat “a reasonable guy” – such praise!); the second is basically the same low production values, faux man-on-the-street shtick, and also has a dude saying, “If you don’t like the new guy, get rid of him in two years!”

    Independent Expenditures:

    258 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 (Morning Edition)”

    1. shot a campy ad depicting “hicky” West Virginians in a studio in Philadelphia, with the following casting call:

      “We are going for a ‘Hicky’ Blue Collar look. These characters are from West Virginia so think coal miner/trucker looks.”

      Is this a potential opening, or no big deal?

    2. I’ve seen the MS-1 DCCC ad running in the Memphis market. Focuses on Alan Nunnelee’s tax record and support of the “fair tax”. The ad is a little corny and cartoonish, but fairly effective in relaying the message in a clear and concise manner.

    3. I know, I know. The Reeps here will say this confirms all the others polls and show I’m a crazy sore loser. But before anyone starts Reid’s political funeral, Ralston yet again calls BS on it AND reveals what I’ve been suspecting all along.

      Private polling out there by reputable pollsters shows identical results — Reid up a bit. But starting 2 think magic 8 ball is better tool.

      So anyone out there want to guess why many public polls say one thing (tie or Angle lead) while the private polls say something totally different (Reid slightly ahead)?

    4. All the polling is moving in the republican direction again, especially in the Senate races.  The generic ballot is moving back in the R direction too.  

      That D bounce of the last weeks might’ve only been temporary.

    5. But its not 2008. Its 2010. I think its time to face reality. Reid is clearly slipping in Nevada and spin isn’t gonna change that fact. The negative ads have failed to sink Angle and has the election draws near voters ate gonna decided whether they like Reid or not. Also Ralston is no longer acting has a neutral journalist on this race anymore, his comments look like Reid campaign t.p trying to bat down each poll that’s out that’s unfavorable to Reid.

    6. Not holding fire for 2012 then. Lots of people there who are being written off. Encouraging to see. Has to based on something.

    7. Via TPM:

      Lieberman’s approval rating stands at only 31%, with 57% disapproval — even lower than the 36%-54% for Sen. Chris Dodd, who is retiring. Broken down by party, Lieberman’s rating is 20%-69% among Democrats, 46%-41% among Republicans, and 31%-56% among independents.

      Respondents were also asked this question: “Generally speaking in 2012 will you vote to reelect Joe Lieberman or would you rather replace him with someone else?” The answer was only 24% to re-elect him, against 66% who would vote to replace him.

      PPP also tested three-way race for Lieberman, Rep. Chris Murphy as the Democratic nominee and Republican financial commentator and Ron Paul activist Peter Schiff (who recently came in third place in the Republican primary for Senate) as the Republican candidate. The result was Murphy 39%, Schiff 25%, and Lieberman 19%.

      Another three-way race put in Gov. Jodi Rell, who is retiring this year with relatively decent approval ratings, as the Republican candidate. This time it’s Murphy 37%, Rell 29%, and Lieberman 17%.

      In a direct two-way match, Murphy leads Lieberman by 47%-33%.


    8. The DCCC expenditures make me somewhere between worried and alarmed.  On the one hand, it’s good that we’re still fighting in VA-05 (Go Tom!) and MD-01, MS-01, MI-01, the OH bunch, and going after the pickup in FL-25, but some of the other buys are leaning toward the fight being in a range that means likely GOP takeover.  A huge media buy in SC-05 is bad news.  If the battleground is really moving toward MO-04, IA-03, CO-03, TX-23, IL-14, IL-17, CA-11, NC-08, that’s big trouble.  If it continues towards OR-05, GA-02, IN-02, that’s a slaughter.

    9. Not particularly reliable but…

      NH-Gov: 51% Lynch (D), 41% Stephen (R) (ARG 10/3-5)

      NH-Sen: 47% Ayotte (R), 42% Hodes (D) (ARG 10/3-5)  

    10. Poll doesn’t pass the smell test:

      Larson won by about 45% in ’08. I don’t have the ’06 numbers.

      This is the same pollster that had Murphy down yesterday. They’ll be reporting on Himes later today. I imagine he’ll be down. I believe the pollster has Republican ties, seemed to help drive the narrative for Scott Brown, if I remember correctly.

    11. What if Ritter had no retired and everything else happened the same? McInnis imploded, Maes won the nomination, and Tancredo ran as a 3rd party. Tancredo and Maes ran the same exact campaigns they are running now, except with attacks on Ritter instead of Hickenlooper. With Ritter’s unpopularity, would that be a close race between Tancredo and Ritter?  

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