IL-Sen: My god, Mark Kirk is an asshole. The excellent ArchPundit catches Kirk bragging about funding “the largest voter protection” operation in 15 years in “key vulnerable precincts” where “the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat.” And pray tell which precincts are those? Says Kirk: “South and West Side of Chicago, Metro East, Rockford.” Those aren’t just Dem strongholds – they happen to be the places where almost all of the African Americans in Illinois live. What a fucker. “Jigger,” huh.
KY-Sen: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to Kentucky to campaign for Jack Conway on Monday.
OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 36 (35)
Rob Portman (R): 55 (55)
Undecided: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±3.1%)
OH-Gov: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)
John Kasich (R): 50 (54)
Undecided: 7 (7)
(MoE: ±3.1%)
IL-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is joining Gov. Pat Quinn for a rally in Chicago on October 12th at the Chicago Journeymen Plumbers Local 130 Hall.
NY-Gov: Carl Paladino, international man of mystery? The noted scuzzball is apparently buying time on all the networks for 5 p.m. today to make a “major announcement.” Sounds pretty stunty to me.
SC-Gov (PDF): Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Vincent Sheheen (10/1-4, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):
Vincent Sheheen (D): 44 (41)
Nikki Haley (R): 49 (51)
Undecided: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
CO-03: Morans.
IL-14: A Randy Hultgren internal from the Tarrance Group shows him leading Dem Rep. Bill Foster 44-38, with 4 points going to Green Party candidate Daniel Kairis.
MD-01: Clinton Alert 2.0! The Big Dog is holding a fundraiser in Washington, D.C. this Sunday for Rep. Frank Kratovil. Man, after all the work he’s done this cycle, I hope Clinton has a phat vacation planned for after election day.
SC-02: Rob Miller says he won’t vote to retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. He also said that he plans to draft Joe DiMaggio in his fantasy baseball league next year and that he’s getting his wife a jetpack for Christmas.
Fundraising:
- FL-Sen: Marco Rubio, $5 million raised (a new record)
- NRCC: Securing a $6.5 million loan
SSP TV:
- MA-Gov: Deval Patrick hits Charlie Baker for raising premiums as a healthcare CEO (while noting that he capped them as governor)
- FL-Gov: Rick Scott tries to paint Alex Sink as a hypocrite on various financial goings-on during her tenure as state CFO
- FL-08: A new spot from Alan Grayson hits Webster on women’s issues
- MA-04: Republican Sean Bielat is out with two ads (apparently cable only): the first attacks Barney Frank on the bailout (and features someone calling Bielat “a reasonable guy” – such praise!); the second is basically the same low production values, faux man-on-the-street shtick, and also has a dude saying, “If you don’t like the new guy, get rid of him in two years!”
Independent Expenditures:
- DCCC: Forty-eight different reports, all below
- Concerned Taxpayers: MD-01: $38K on media against Frank Kratovil (D)
- Crossroads GPS: CO-Sen: $780K on media against Michael Bennet (D); FL-Sen: $350K on media for Marco Rubio (R); IL-Sen: $1 mil on media against Alexi Giannoulias (D); KY-Sen: $100K on media against Jack Conway
- EMILY’s List: CO-04: $160K on TV against Cory Gardner (R); WI-07: $20K on mail against Sean Duffy (R)
- NEA: OH-13: $550K on TV against Tom Ganley (R); AZ-05: $650K on TV against David Schweikert (R)
- NRCC: $111K on various media expenditures (they look radio-sized) in AZ-08, MA-10 & MO-04
- NRSC: $1.3 million on various media expenditures (these look more TV-sized) in CO-Sen, KY-Sen, WA-Sen & WV-Sen
- Revere America: NH-02: $356K on media against Annie Kuster (D) (see Blue Hampshire for more)
shot a campy ad depicting “hicky” West Virginians in a studio in Philadelphia, with the following casting call:
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Is this a potential opening, or no big deal?
I’ve seen the MS-1 DCCC ad running in the Memphis market. Focuses on Alan Nunnelee’s tax record and support of the “fair tax”. The ad is a little corny and cartoonish, but fairly effective in relaying the message in a clear and concise manner.
Lee Fisher is surgeing!
Ras has Noem back in front of Herseth-Sandlin by 3 (47-44)
Also shows a typical Blunt lead of 8 points in MO-Sen (51-48)
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
http://www.politico.com/static…
Is Mike Murphy working for Diane Denish too?
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com…
http://americanactionforum.org…
Leads 48-42.
I know, I know. The Reeps here will say this confirms all the others polls and show I’m a crazy sore loser. But before anyone starts Reid’s political funeral, Ralston yet again calls BS on it AND reveals what I’ve been suspecting all along.
So anyone out there want to guess why many public polls say one thing (tie or Angle lead) while the private polls say something totally different (Reid slightly ahead)?
All the polling is moving in the republican direction again, especially in the Senate races. The generic ballot is moving back in the R direction too.
That D bounce of the last weeks might’ve only been temporary.
But its not 2008. Its 2010. I think its time to face reality. Reid is clearly slipping in Nevada and spin isn’t gonna change that fact. The negative ads have failed to sink Angle and has the election draws near voters ate gonna decided whether they like Reid or not. Also Ralston is no longer acting has a neutral journalist on this race anymore, his comments look like Reid campaign t.p trying to bat down each poll that’s out that’s unfavorable to Reid.
Not holding fire for 2012 then. Lots of people there who are being written off. Encouraging to see. Has to based on something.
Via TPM:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
A lobbyist close to him says he has been telling people for a few weeks that he will run, and he met with Cornyn recently.
42-27(Crist)-21 (Meek).
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.c…
The DCCC expenditures make me somewhere between worried and alarmed. On the one hand, it’s good that we’re still fighting in VA-05 (Go Tom!) and MD-01, MS-01, MI-01, the OH bunch, and going after the pickup in FL-25, but some of the other buys are leaning toward the fight being in a range that means likely GOP takeover. A huge media buy in SC-05 is bad news. If the battleground is really moving toward MO-04, IA-03, CO-03, TX-23, IL-14, IL-17, CA-11, NC-08, that’s big trouble. If it continues towards OR-05, GA-02, IN-02, that’s a slaughter.
Not particularly reliable but…
NH-Gov: 51% Lynch (D), 41% Stephen (R) (ARG 10/3-5)
NH-Sen: 47% Ayotte (R), 42% Hodes (D) (ARG 10/3-5)
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…
If only I had a dollar for every POS poll!
Poll doesn’t pass the smell test:
http://www.ctcapitolreport.com…
Larson won by about 45% in ’08. I don’t have the ’06 numbers.
This is the same pollster that had Murphy down yesterday. They’ll be reporting on Himes later today. I imagine he’ll be down. I believe the pollster has Republican ties, seemed to help drive the narrative for Scott Brown, if I remember correctly.
While Bright says he definitely won’t vote for Pelosi for speaker.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
Since all along, despite polls to the contrary, I’ve expected Bright to lose, he probably won’t get to cast that vote.
http://thepage.time.com/2010/1…
Kasich by 4, Portman by 10.
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/po…
Dino Rossi (WA-Sen) $4.4 million http://twitter.com/FixAaron/st…
Robert Hurt (VA-05) $900,000
Gabby Giffords (AZ-08) $700k
Harry Mitchell (AZ-05) 490k
Kevin Yoder (KS-03) 730k
http://twitter.com/FECtweets
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…
Probably not but worth watching.
Hickenlooper getting close to 50.
http://www.publicpolicypolling…
What if Ritter had no retired and everything else happened the same? McInnis imploded, Maes won the nomination, and Tancredo ran as a 3rd party. Tancredo and Maes ran the same exact campaigns they are running now, except with attacks on Ritter instead of Hickenlooper. With Ritter’s unpopularity, would that be a close race between Tancredo and Ritter?
Does anyone know what Jim Talent is thinking these days? Is he likely to run? Is he still thinking about it? If not, who would run?
Monmouth says Meehan 49, Lentz 45. I had this as a writeoff, so good news if this is at all accurate.
http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin…
MerriRepublicman has Himes ahead 49-47.
http://www.nationalreview.com/…
Which means he’s practically safe.