I.E. Analysis Week 4

Week four of my five-part series shows encouraging stability, rather than a rapidly growing wave.  There is only one race (NY-23) where the NRCC spent in Week 4 but not Week 3.  There were 10 races (CO-07, FL-02, IA-01, MN-01, NC-11, NY-19, PA-07, SD-AL, TX-17, WA-02) where the DCCC spent in Week 4 but not Week 3.  Three of those (FL-02, PA-07, and TX-17) were positive for Dems, in that they were finally spending in what I had long assumed were uphill districts to say the least.  Four (CO-07, IA-01, NC-11, and WA-02) were emerging Republican targets, but not sufficiently emergent for the NRCC to pay attention to them.  The buys in IA-01 and NC-11 were under $100K.  I consider these all to be in an abundance of caution.  The remaining three (MN-01, NY-19, and SD-AL) were all modest investments in races that have already been on the map.  There were no three alarm fires in the bunch.

Nor has the NRCC locked down any more seats than last week.  In fact, this week saw two Democratic districts (FL-02 and PA-11) achieve battleground status from the jaws of death, while only one new district (NM-02) was downgraded to the “I’m not quite dead yet” category.  As a result, I spotted the Republicans 17 seats last week, and I spotted them 16 seats this week.  The NRCC did, however, officially stop spending in five districts (CO-04, FL-08, FL-24, PA-03, TN-08) that it pretty much already had locked up as of last week.

Another interesting development is the emergence of a Democratic firewall.  There were very large increases in DCCC funding for certain districts, including CA-11, FL-25, IL-10, IL-14, IL-17, IN-09, MI-07, MO-04, NH-02, NM-01, OH-18, OR-05, PA-12, WA-03, and WV-01.  I suspect that these are some of the closest races in the country, and that the majority will hinge on the outcome of some combination of these races.  I am actually slightly more hopeful of retaining the House than I was last week, but to be clear I was not hopeful at all last week, and am only a little hopeful this week.  In any event, here is your weekly I.E. analysis.  

Goners (14D, 2R):

AR-02 – Nothing from either side ever.

CO-04 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC never did.

DE-AL – Nothing from either side ever.

FL-08 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC never did.

FL-24 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC never did.

IL-11 – NRCC continued its token $30K spending here.  DCCC never spent here.

IN-08 – NRCC has not spent for a few weeks.  DCCC never did.

KS-03 – Nothing from either side ever.

LA-02 – Nothing from either side ever.

LA-03 – Nothing from either side ever.

NY-29 – Nothing from either side ever.

OH-01 – DCCC continued its token $30K ad buy.  NRCC never spent here.

OH-15 – DCCC stopped even its token ad buys this week.  NRCC never spent here.

PA-03 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC stopped spending a few weeks ago.

TN-06 – Nothing from either side ever.

TN-08 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC never did.

“I’m not quite dead yet!” (4D, 0R):

NH-01 – DCCC has never spent here.  NRCC stable at $320K.  Guinta must have a solid lead.

NM-02 – DCCC reduced its investment from $180K to $20K.  NRCC maintained a $175K pace.  Things are not going well for Dems in NM.

TX-17 – DCCC spent $60K here this week, its first spending to date.  NRCC stopped spending here this week.  Republicans seem to believe they have finished off Edwards.

WI-08 – DCCC stopped spending here this week.  NRCC decreased its investment from $110K to $100K.  Close Penn poll and Kagen self-funding ability are rays of hope.

Battlegrounds (39D, 1R):

AL-02 – DCCC increased from $245K to $265K.  NRCC increased from $220K to $240K.  Stable race, probably with a modest Bright lead.

AZ-01 – DCCC increased from $230K to $250K.  NRCC decreased from $250K to $225K.  Probably a modest, stable lead for Gosar.

AZ-05 – DCCC decreased from $250K to $240K.  NRCC decreased from $380K to $320K.  Would have expected Dems to increase here.  Not a great sign.

AR-01 – DCCC increased from $440K to $470K.  NRCC stable at $250K.  Dems clearly believe they can win this district.  Spending huge here for some time.

CO-03 – DCCC decreased from $330K to $250K.  NRCC increased from $270K to $340K.  I actually suspect that Salazar may be out in front a bit here.

FL-02 – DCCC spent $150K here this week, its first significant spending to date.  NRCC decreased from $400K to $155K.  Republicans must be feeling very good here.

FL-22 – No spending from either side amidst incredibly well funded candidates.  Polls show a toss-up.  I won’t argue.

GA-02 – DCCC increased from $150K to $180K.  NRCC increased from $120K to $160K.  Bishop may have a modest, stable lead.

HI-01 – Both parties maintained their level of investment, with DCCC at $160K and NRCC at $130K.  Seems like a stable race that could go either way.

IL-17 – DCCC increased from $320K to $390K.  NRCC increased from $150K to $440K.  Part of the emerging Democratic firewall.

IN-09 – DCCC increased from $270K to $450K.  NRCC stable at $200K.  Part of the emerging Democratic firewall.

MA-10 – DCCC increased from $130K to $160K.  NRCC decreased from $310K to $275K.  Dems seem relatively unconcerned here.  I take that as a good sign.

MI-01 – DCCC decreased from $270K to $250K.  NRCC increased from $210K to $245K.  This could be a big surprise Dem victory.

MI-07 – DCCC increased from $220K to $300K.  NRCC increased from $210K to $230K.  Another Dem firewall district.

MD-01 – DCCC decreased from $360K to $310K.  NRCC increased from $355K to $370K.  Kratovil is amazing to even be in this thing.

MO-04 – DCCC increased from $227K to $350K.  NRCC stable at $280K.  Yet another firewall disctrict.

MS-01 – DCCC maintained its investment at $230K.  NRCC decreased from $300K to $200K.  Republicans may be feeling good about this one.

ND-AL – DCCC maintained its $255K investment.  NRCC decreased from $240K to $170K.  Probably a modest but stable lead for Berg.

NH-02 – DCCC increased its investment 10-fold, from $34K to $340K.  NRCC maintained its $130K investment.  Dems may sense some momentum here, and are clearly all in.

NM-01 – DCCC increased from $115K to $370K.  NRCC maintained $160K investment.  Another firewall district for Democrats.

NY-19 – DCCC spent $90K here this week, its first spending to date.  Nothing from the NRCC.  I suspect both parties are reluctant to dive headlong into big NYC media buys.  Polls show a very close race.

NY-20 – DCCC increased from $110K to $230K.  NRCC decreased from $200K to $175K.  I suspect Murphy still has a decent lead.

NY-23 – DCCC increased from $160K to $220K.  NRCC spent $175K, its first spending to date.  Not sure why Republicans did not spend here previously.

OH-06 – DCCC increased from $65K to $290K.  NRCC increased from $100K to $130K.  This one is emerging as a significant concern, and part of the firewall.

OH-16 – DCCC stable at $295K.  NRCC decreased from $427K to $332K.  Renacci may be taking control a little here.

OH-18 – DCCC increased from $270K to $620K.  NRCC decreased from $550K to $315K.  One of the most heavily sought after districts in the country.

OR-05 – DCCC doubled its investment from $230K to $470K.  NRCC decreased its investment from $270K to $100K.  Republicans may be feeling good about this one (UPDATE – or maybe they’re bailing out if today’s Elway poll is believed).

PA-07 – DCCC spent $250K here this week, its first spending this week.  NRCC upped its spending from $45K to $70K.  Nice to see Dem investment, but I suspect Meehan is ahead.

PA-10 – DCCC increased from $140K to $170K.  NRCC decreased from $220K to $190K.  I fear that Marino may have a modest lead.

PA-11 – DCCC increases from $35K to $200K, putting this race back on the table.  Republicans maintain investment at $155K.  Kanjorski back from the dead.

PA-12 – DCCC increased from $250K to $400K.  NRCC decreased from $280K to $260K.  This is another firewall district, despite special election result.

SC-05 – DCCC decreased from $270K to $230K.  NRCC increased from $200K to $300K.  Spratt may be faring better than many think.

SD-AL – DCCC spent $80K here this week, its first spending to date.  NRCC decreased from $226K to $150K.  Noem is clearly making a race of it.

TN-04 – DCCC increased from $110K to $175K.  NRCC decreased from $310K to $220K.  I’m guessing Davis still has a modest lead.

TX-23 – DCCC decreased from $235K to $170K.  NRCC decreased from $265K to $245K.  Rodriguez may have a modest but stable lead here.

VA-02 – DCCC increased from $150K to $180K, while NRCC decreased from $150K to $130K.  Rigell probably has a modest but stable lead.

VA-05 – DCCC increased from $95K to $230K.  NRCC maintained $185K pace.  Real vote of confidence in Periello from the Dems here.

WA-03 – DCCC increased from $280K to $500K.  NRCC decreased from $310K to $275K.  Dems have been going after this district hard for a long time.

WI-07 – DCCC increased from $170K to $190K, while NRCC decreased from $155K to $140K.  Duffy probably has a small but stable lead.

WV-01 – DCCC increased from $250K to $330K.  NRCC increased from $190K to $220K.  Part of the Democratic firewall.

Head Scratchers (3D, 1R):

GA-08 – DCCC still spending a token $10K.  NRCC maintained its spending at about $75K.  I would have guessed Marshall was ahead, but Landmark Communications says Scott up big.  

IL-10 – DCCC increased from $125K to $670K.  NRCC maintained its token $50K spending.  I would suspect Seals is ahead, but We Ask America says different.

NV-03 – DCCC spent its typical $400K.  No spending from the NRCC here this week.  Truly do not know what to make of it.  Early voting may be telling Republicans they are either way ahead or behind.

PA-08 – NRCC continued its token $40K spending.  Still nothing from the DCCC.  I’m hesitating to downgrade this only because of the Penn poll showing Murphy up.

Lean Retention (21D, 1R):

AZ-07 – DCCC cut its spending for Grijalva from $60K to $30K.  Nothing from the NRCC.  I think this was a good wakeup call and nothing more.

CA-11 – DCCC made huge increase in spending from $50K to $350K.  NRCC continued its token $50K spending.   Seems the Dems are trying to put this one away.

CA-20 – DCCC increased its spending from $40K to $115K.  A little disconcerting, but probably just precautionary.  Nothing from the NRCC.

CO-07 – DCCC spent $164K here this week, its first spending to date.  Appears precautionary for now.  Nothing from the NRCC.

FL-25 – DCCC spent $362K here this week, a huge increase.  Encouraging, but the NRCC still has not felt the need to get involved.

IA-01 – DCCC did a $14K media production here this week, probably to counteract big outside spending.  Nothing from the NRCC.

IA-02 – DCCC spent $215K here this week.  Nothing from the NRCC.  This is probably the most endangered of the IA seats.

IA-03 – DCCC continued its weekly spending in the $125K range.  Nothing from the NRCC.  Boswell is in control.

IL-14 – DCCC made huge increase in spending from $75K to $400K.  NRCC maintained its token $50K spending.  Like CA-11, Dems are going for the jugular here.

IN-02 – DCCC increased its spending from $190K to $220K.  Republicans maintained spending at $80K.  Donnelly seems to be ahead.

KY-06 – DCCC spent a modest $140K, while the NRCC stopped spending this week.  I suspect Chandler has a high single digit lead or maybe better.

NC-07 – DCCC reduced its investment to $60K from $80K.  NRCC increased its investment from $45K to $75K.  Spending is not reflective of a great pickup opportunity.  

MN-01 – DCCC spent $125K here this week, its first spending to date.  NRCC decreased from $180K to $160K.  Dems probably just being cautious here.

MS-04 – DCCC still has not spent here.  NRCC decreased from $175K to $140K.  I suspect Taylor has a stable lead.

NC-08 – DCCC increased from $250K to $375K.  Still nothing from the NRCC.  I suspect this is precautionary to make up for the usual, sloppy Kissell fundraising.

NC-11 – DCCC spent $95K here this week, its first spending to date.  Nothing from the NRCC.  Again I suspect it is precautionary from the DCCC.

NJ-03 – NRCC increased its token spending from $30K to $45K.  Nothing from the DCCC.  Polls show this one close, but I am skeptical given lack of spending from both sides.

OH-13 – DCCC has stopped spending here this week.  NRCC not spending on self-funder Ganley.  Sutton is in good shape.

NY-24 – DCCC increased its spending from $190K to $230K.  NRCC increased from $70K to $80K. Arcuri seems to be ahead.

VA-09 – DCCC has never spent here.  This is the NRCC’s Moby Dick, as it increases from $180K to $200K.  Boucher seems to have the lead.

VA-11 – DCCC spent $240K here this week, buying its first TV ads.  Nothing from the NRCC.  It’s a big buy, but it’s an expensive district.  Probably precautionary.

WA-02 – DCCC spent $260K here this week, its first spending to date.  Nothing from the NRCC.  Virtually the same analysis of WA-02.