Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread 2.0
450 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread 2.0”
Nothing would please me more than seeing Angle and Buck lose to Reid and Bennett!
(I just posted this on the other open thread but thought I would re-post it if that’s ok)
A good day for Democrats in Early Voting Saturday. They had their best day raw vote wise vs Republicans in Clark County (+1778) and Washoe County (-94). Percentage wise they had their 2nd best day in Clark county (+9.98%) and their best day percentage wise in Washoe County (-2.04%) Dems also had their best day in CD 3 raw vote wise (+540) and percentage wise (+5.35%)
If Michigan is going to dig out of its current rut, it will need a governor whose independence inspires others to follow, someone who can both stand up for what the state needs and bring disparate groups together around a common mission.
Of the two major-party choices on the ballot, Republican Rick Snyder is the one who better fits that description.
Typically, the Free Press endorses Democrats. I’m not really surprised though. I thought they might endorse Snyder. I think part of the decision is to back the likely winner since their primary endorsements (Hoekstra and Dillon) both lost.
Rasmussen today has Onorato trailing just 50-45 with leaners, 49-44 without leaners.
Rassy is showing a turnout model of 43D-40R-17I, and 85% white. That compares to the 2006 exit poll of 43D-38R-19I, and 88% white.
Rassy has Obama’s job approval at an improved 47-51, not nearly as bad as other recent polls. I’m guessing an improved turnout model causes that, with more base Dems making it past the likely voter screen.
Crosstabs, while much less reliable than the turnout model evaluation, show Onorato losing indies 48-40 and bleeding 17% of Dems while picking up only 10% of GOPers.
Of the 5% of the sample who are undecided or choose “some other candidate,” a plurality are indies, and Dems make up the next biggest group.
Ultmately this corroborates the Q-poll which had almost identical PA-Gov numbers, and also PPP which showed a surge in both PA-Sen and PA-Gov but obviously was more favorable to Dems than these other recent polls.
Muhlenberg continuing to show Corbett up much more comfortably than others now is the outlier in PA-Gov.
san jose mercury news endorsed chris cooley. i’m not surprised. they also like both maldonado and newsom, but chose newsom. straight d for everything else.
I crunched the numbers for the three Dem-held districts, and here’s how early voting has broken down so far:
IA-01: 18,385 D, 12,693 R, 6,414 I (49/34/17)
IA-02: 23,836 D, 14,825 R, 8,915 I (50/31/19)
IA-03: 21,277 D, 16,775 R, 5,947 I (48/38/14)
Compare to registration totals:
IA-01: 135,211 D, 102,980 R, 152,121 I (35/26/39)
IA-02: 156,277 D, 108,750 R, 141,995 I (38/27/35)
IA-03: 151,234 D, 127,795 R, 125,912 I (37/32/31)
Independents are either waiting until election day or sitting out the election.
Republicans are doing well in the small, rural counties, but the Democrats seem to have a really strong early voting operation in the larger counties. Their lead in IA-03 is solely due to Polk county, where they have a nearly-5,000 vote lead over the Republicans. In IA-02, they have a 4,300 vote lead in Johnson County, a 2,000 vote lead in Linn, and 1,000 vote leads in Lee, Wapello, and Des Moines. IA-01 seems to have the smallest urban/rural divide; Democrats lead in all but 4 counties there (Bremer, Butler, Clayton, and Delaware). However, early voting doesn’t seem to be going on as much in IA-01, as there’s only 37,000 total, compared to 47,000 in IA-02 and 44,000 in IA-03.
Does anybody else find it odd that the Oberstar campaign hasn’t released any internal polls dispeling the notion that his race is much tighter than predicted? The conventional wisdom has always been that Cravaack’s internal poll was a crackpot, yet there hasn’t been any indication yet that anybody can discredit it.
This ad got a lot of buzz on HuffPo but I didn’t see anything posted on SSP about it (though it’s possible I simply missed it.)
Anyway, what do people think? I think it’s fantastic, personally. Really entertaining, engaging, and cheekily devastating. It’s not clear whether it’s just a web ad or if it’s televised. (I think it’s only a web ad, unfortunately.)
Unsurprisingly, the Globe endorsed all 8 Democrats running for Congress in Eastern and Central MA. They gave strong endorsements to Markey, Keating, Tsongas, and the unopposed Capuano. In MA-06, they gave Tierney a strong slap on the wrist but endorsed him anyway because they don’t like Bill Hudak either.
What I found a bit more surprising was that the Globe really seems to like Marty Lamb and Sean Bielat, who are running in MA-03 and MA-04. They like Jim McGovern and Barney Frank even more, but they said that anyone “who does not like what McGovern (or Frank) can feel good about voting for Lamb (or Bielat) this year.” That, my friends, might be the closest you’ll ever see the Globe come to endorsing a Republican.
Overall, the article is optimistic for Republicans, and underscores Democratic challenges. In that sense, there’s not much new – especially for those of us here.
But I did pick up a couple of pieces of info that might be interesting. For instance: Republicans targeting the Ohio River Valley, with Dems working to build firewall in Northeast.
Republicans focused their efforts heavily on the Ohio River Valley, hoping to win back a trove of districts in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Democrats were trying to build a firewall in the Northeast, including seats in Connecticut, New York and Pennsylvania, where a strong performance could keep Republicans from repeating their 1994 sweep, when they captured 54 seats.
Could explain Obama’s visit to PA and CT next Sunday, Clinton’s to CT and NY on Monday, etc.
And the story holds up Perriello as an incumbent Dem in a tough district who could still pull it out. I’m surprised by that, though I think he’s great and would be thrilled to see him hang on. I wonder if they’re basing this assertion on internal polling info, or just the same tea leaves that we’ve all been reading – which in my opinion lean toward a Perriello loss.
Yet other vulnerable Democrats continued to hang tough, and their resilience led Republicans to look elsewhere to find Democrats who had not prepared for difficult contests.
Representative Tom Perriello of Virginia, who for months has been seen by Republicans as among the most endangered freshmen Democrats, is now in a race seen as one that could go either way. Representative Ed Perlmutter of Colorado, whose district was aggressively pursued by Republicans, said he had seen his re-election prospects improve in recent weeks as voters have focused more closely on the contest, and he said he expected many of his embattled Democratic colleagues to prevail.
“I am normally an optimistic fellow, but I am also realistic,” Mr. Perlmutter said in an interview. “I have been talking to my buddies, and they are in tough races. But they are still right in it.”
If you are left-leaning, what politician(s) past or present is too far to the left for you ever to support (in a primary or in a general election)?
If you are right-leaning, what politician(s) past or present is too far to the right for you ever to support?
I’ll start off:
Cynthia McKinney
maybe Huey Long
ppppolls – Dan Maes down to 5% in our CO Gov poll. That’s why this race is getting interesting
Any idea what that may mean for Hick’s lead?
I was looking back at some archives here and people for much of 2009 and even after the Coakley loss were saying that they were so certain this wouldnt be another 1994. Well, general rule of them now is when Democrats win the White House, expect another 1994 in the first midterm.
endorses Charlie Melancon, a really flattering endorsement too. Don’t know what the Picayune has done yet, but they are pretty conservative for NOLA, but Melancon is really popular down in south Louisiana.
# 29% of voters under 30 in California say Prop 19 is their biggest reason for voting. 37% say Gov race, 23% Senate race less than a minute ago via web
# Boxer and Brown are winning more Republicans than Fiorina and Whitman are Democrats! 2 minutes ago via web
# Looks like the only suspense in California will be about Prop 19 3 minutes ago via web
PPP’s polls look like they are going to be ugly for the GOP.
Boxer and Brown are winning more Republicans than Fiorina and Whitman are Democrats!
Looks like the only suspense in California will be about Prop 19
Sen. Lisa Murkowski has the right combination of character, experience and ability to work to solve real problems and advance the interests of Alaska — and an opportunity born of defeat to win as an independent, tempered and strong voice for the majority of Alaskans. We urge you to write in her name on your ballot. And don’t forget to blacken the bubble.
Just joined a few weeks ago, and I’ve been amazed at home much info and insight I’ve found here.
So – thanks to all!
PS. I remember trying to visit the site on previous election days (as a non-member), and having trouble getting through. I hope that doesn’t happen this year, as I’ll go into serious withdrawal.
If SSP is down on election night, where do you guys go for the coverage?
I would probably go to Politico, only for the pretty maps. Otherwise i might just tune in to MSNBC or even CNN (which is all they’re good for these days…)
I assume we have all made up our minds about who to vote for. Is anyone here planning on crossing party lines to vote for a member of the other party, or for an independent? If you are independent and usually vote for one party, are you going to vote for a member of the opposite party that you usually support? Any race counts, down to local judge ships, council races, etc.
I’m voting a straight R ticket, for Lt. Gov, Sen, and Congress.
IDK how long it’ll be up there though, but we only need it for 8 more days!
In a Sestak campaign ad, Toomey says that his voting record in the House was “indistinguishable” from that of conservative former Sen. Rick Santorum. Actually, Toomey was being modest. His voting record was even more conservative than Santorum’s, whose far-right views were rejected by voters in a landslide in 2006. Toomey’s personality may not be as abrasive as Santorum’s, but his votes would rub a majority of Pennsylvanians the wrong way.
Sestak has moderate, reasonable ideas for promoting clean energy and providing small businesses with incentives to create more jobs. In the Senate, Sestak’s views would be much more in line with most Pennsylvanians.
Early votes today down to 2304 from 4602 yesterday (Sunday lull to blame?). But the gem is that 993 Dems voted to 983 Repubs. Their best relative showing in early voting in Washoe to date.
back up the polls showing of a 3-9 point enthusiasm gap in favor of the GOP. After reading his article, I am not really buying that. The #s are better than were expected considering the GOP is supposed to be so much more enthused to vote. The Dems are holding steady.
I think Silver has bought into the beltway pundit spin a bit too much this cycle.
I feel like the way Michigan will go, as in house districts 1,7, and 9, the house will go.
All three races are close, with Peters leading in most of the polls, Schauer gaining/leading in the polls, and Mcdowell down by three in polls not including a very real third party candidate.
Charlie Baker (several times), Deval Patrick (a few times), John Tierney, Steve Grossman (Dem for MA Treasurer), Frank Guinta, Annie Kuster (once each.) There may have been more as I did not see any of the 1 PM games and only part of the 8PM game.
I feel bad for the NH candidates because they have to advertise in Boston, where they reach a market that is overwhelmingly out-of-district. I thought that candidates up there had an way of running ads on Boston stations but reaching NH homes only, but Guinta and Kuster were on broadcast TV here anyway. I do recall seeing many Shaheen and Sununu ads in both 2002 and 2008.
Boston Globe/UNH Poll: MA-4: Frank up 46-33. MA-10: Keating up 37-33, very many undecideds.
New Hawaii Poll: Obama ads helped (practically the only or almost only state where he’s very popular still), Abercrombie up 51-43, private Dem and GOP polling also show Abercrombie pulling ahead – Star Adv
I interpret this as good news for McDowell. After an early summer poll showing Benishek far ahead, McDowell has closed the gap, and the independent candidate has a conservative platform almost identical to Benishek’s. Benishek has long sensed peaked, and being a naturally blue area, I feel that most of the undecideds will come home to the Dems.
It’s increasingly looking like the Dems will hold MI-9, MI-7, MI-1 and actually be competitive in MI-3 for the first time in decades.
Nothing would please me more than seeing Angle and Buck lose to Reid and Bennett!
(I just posted this on the other open thread but thought I would re-post it if that’s ok)
A good day for Democrats in Early Voting Saturday. They had their best day raw vote wise vs Republicans in Clark County (+1778) and Washoe County (-94). Percentage wise they had their 2nd best day in Clark county (+9.98%) and their best day percentage wise in Washoe County (-2.04%) Dems also had their best day in CD 3 raw vote wise (+540) and percentage wise (+5.35%)
Clark County
Saturday
Dems 8,441 (47.38%)
Reps 6,663 (37.4%)
Other 2,712 (15.22%)
Total
Dems 56,274 (46.49%)
Reps 46,148 (37.82%)
Other 19,143 (15.27%)
Washoe County
Saturday
Dems 1,919 (41.7%)
Reps 2,013 (43.74%)
Other 670 (14.56%)
Total
Dems 14,092 (39.96%)
Reps 16,298 (46.22%)
Other 4,872 (13.82%)
CD-03
Saturday
Dems 4,534 (44.9%)
Reps 3,994 (39.55%)
Other 1,570 (15.55%)
Total
Dems 31,484 (43.6%)
Reps 29,066 (40.25%)
Other 11,665 (16.15%)
New Star Tribune poll
Dayton 41
Emmer 34
Horner 13
Undecided/other 12
http://www.startribune.com/pol…
are tied in a new SUSA poll. Hickenlooper is at 49%, with a 10pt lead.
No crosstabs, for whatever reason.
Brown 52-39, Boxer 50-42.
http://www.latimes.com/news/lo…
http://www.freep.com/article/2…
Typically, the Free Press endorses Democrats. I’m not really surprised though. I thought they might endorse Snyder. I think part of the decision is to back the likely winner since their primary endorsements (Hoekstra and Dillon) both lost.
Rasmussen today has Onorato trailing just 50-45 with leaners, 49-44 without leaners.
Rassy is showing a turnout model of 43D-40R-17I, and 85% white. That compares to the 2006 exit poll of 43D-38R-19I, and 88% white.
Rassy has Obama’s job approval at an improved 47-51, not nearly as bad as other recent polls. I’m guessing an improved turnout model causes that, with more base Dems making it past the likely voter screen.
Crosstabs, while much less reliable than the turnout model evaluation, show Onorato losing indies 48-40 and bleeding 17% of Dems while picking up only 10% of GOPers.
Of the 5% of the sample who are undecided or choose “some other candidate,” a plurality are indies, and Dems make up the next biggest group.
Ultmately this corroborates the Q-poll which had almost identical PA-Gov numbers, and also PPP which showed a surge in both PA-Sen and PA-Gov but obviously was more favorable to Dems than these other recent polls.
Muhlenberg continuing to show Corbett up much more comfortably than others now is the outlier in PA-Gov.
http://twitter.com/edhenrycnn
The existence of these tracking polls are corroborated by JR.
http://twitter.com/RalstonFlash
The Courier Journal endorses Conway and Ellsworth. The CJ is obviously very liberal.
In Florida the Miami Herald endorses Alex Sink for Governor. I do not know where the MH leans.
http://www.miamiherald.com/201…
san jose mercury news endorsed chris cooley. i’m not surprised. they also like both maldonado and newsom, but chose newsom. straight d for everything else.
I crunched the numbers for the three Dem-held districts, and here’s how early voting has broken down so far:
IA-01: 18,385 D, 12,693 R, 6,414 I (49/34/17)
IA-02: 23,836 D, 14,825 R, 8,915 I (50/31/19)
IA-03: 21,277 D, 16,775 R, 5,947 I (48/38/14)
Compare to registration totals:
IA-01: 135,211 D, 102,980 R, 152,121 I (35/26/39)
IA-02: 156,277 D, 108,750 R, 141,995 I (38/27/35)
IA-03: 151,234 D, 127,795 R, 125,912 I (37/32/31)
Independents are either waiting until election day or sitting out the election.
Republicans are doing well in the small, rural counties, but the Democrats seem to have a really strong early voting operation in the larger counties. Their lead in IA-03 is solely due to Polk county, where they have a nearly-5,000 vote lead over the Republicans. In IA-02, they have a 4,300 vote lead in Johnson County, a 2,000 vote lead in Linn, and 1,000 vote leads in Lee, Wapello, and Des Moines. IA-01 seems to have the smallest urban/rural divide; Democrats lead in all but 4 counties there (Bremer, Butler, Clayton, and Delaware). However, early voting doesn’t seem to be going on as much in IA-01, as there’s only 37,000 total, compared to 47,000 in IA-02 and 44,000 in IA-03.
Does anybody else find it odd that the Oberstar campaign hasn’t released any internal polls dispeling the notion that his race is much tighter than predicted? The conventional wisdom has always been that Cravaack’s internal poll was a crackpot, yet there hasn’t been any indication yet that anybody can discredit it.
http://www.adn.com/2010/10/23/…
This ad got a lot of buzz on HuffPo but I didn’t see anything posted on SSP about it (though it’s possible I simply missed it.)
Anyway, what do people think? I think it’s fantastic, personally. Really entertaining, engaging, and cheekily devastating. It’s not clear whether it’s just a web ad or if it’s televised. (I think it’s only a web ad, unfortunately.)
http://www.quinnforillinois.co…
Unsurprisingly, the Globe endorsed all 8 Democrats running for Congress in Eastern and Central MA. They gave strong endorsements to Markey, Keating, Tsongas, and the unopposed Capuano. In MA-06, they gave Tierney a strong slap on the wrist but endorsed him anyway because they don’t like Bill Hudak either.
What I found a bit more surprising was that the Globe really seems to like Marty Lamb and Sean Bielat, who are running in MA-03 and MA-04. They like Jim McGovern and Barney Frank even more, but they said that anyone “who does not like what McGovern (or Frank) can feel good about voting for Lamb (or Bielat) this year.” That, my friends, might be the closest you’ll ever see the Globe come to endorsing a Republican.
Overall, the article is optimistic for Republicans, and underscores Democratic challenges. In that sense, there’s not much new – especially for those of us here.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10…
But I did pick up a couple of pieces of info that might be interesting. For instance: Republicans targeting the Ohio River Valley, with Dems working to build firewall in Northeast.
Could explain Obama’s visit to PA and CT next Sunday, Clinton’s to CT and NY on Monday, etc.
And the story holds up Perriello as an incumbent Dem in a tough district who could still pull it out. I’m surprised by that, though I think he’s great and would be thrilled to see him hang on. I wonder if they’re basing this assertion on internal polling info, or just the same tea leaves that we’ve all been reading – which in my opinion lean toward a Perriello loss.
If you are left-leaning, what politician(s) past or present is too far to the left for you ever to support (in a primary or in a general election)?
If you are right-leaning, what politician(s) past or present is too far to the right for you ever to support?
I’ll start off:
Cynthia McKinney
maybe Huey Long
Any idea what that may mean for Hick’s lead?
I was looking back at some archives here and people for much of 2009 and even after the Coakley loss were saying that they were so certain this wouldnt be another 1994. Well, general rule of them now is when Democrats win the White House, expect another 1994 in the first midterm.
endorses Charlie Melancon, a really flattering endorsement too. Don’t know what the Picayune has done yet, but they are pretty conservative for NOLA, but Melancon is really popular down in south Louisiana.
PPP’s polls look like they are going to be ugly for the GOP.
http://www.adn.com/2010/10/23/…
Has anyone noticed they still ask if people support an “other” candidate, even though there are only 2 candidates?
Are there still write in candidates in Washington?
http://twitter.com/ppppolls
I think this community is amazing.
Just joined a few weeks ago, and I’ve been amazed at home much info and insight I’ve found here.
So – thanks to all!
PS. I remember trying to visit the site on previous election days (as a non-member), and having trouble getting through. I hope that doesn’t happen this year, as I’ll go into serious withdrawal.
If SSP is down on election night, where do you guys go for the coverage?
I would probably go to Politico, only for the pretty maps. Otherwise i might just tune in to MSNBC or even CNN (which is all they’re good for these days…)
I assume we have all made up our minds about who to vote for. Is anyone here planning on crossing party lines to vote for a member of the other party, or for an independent? If you are independent and usually vote for one party, are you going to vote for a member of the opposite party that you usually support? Any race counts, down to local judge ships, council races, etc.
I’m voting a straight R ticket, for Lt. Gov, Sen, and Congress.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/
IDK how long it’ll be up there though, but we only need it for 8 more days!
http://www.philly.com/inquirer…
was there a race where both candidates were dem and you didn’t care either way, so you just flipped a coin?
Endorses Feingold http://www.jsonline.com/news/o…
They also endorsed walker over Barret for Gov.
Move even .5% of the vote?
For the 1st time Democrats lead in daily early voting turnout in Washoe County on Saturday.
Dems 993
Reps 983
Other 328
Of course turnout was low because about half the EV polls are closed on Sunday in Washoe County but it continues a trend in the right direction.
http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/vot…
Early votes today down to 2304 from 4602 yesterday (Sunday lull to blame?). But the gem is that 993 Dems voted to 983 Repubs. Their best relative showing in early voting in Washoe to date.
Dems – 43.1%
Repubs – 42.7%
http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/vot…
http://www.chicagotribune.com/…
Their last poll had Giannoulias up 2.
back up the polls showing of a 3-9 point enthusiasm gap in favor of the GOP. After reading his article, I am not really buying that. The #s are better than were expected considering the GOP is supposed to be so much more enthused to vote. The Dems are holding steady.
I think Silver has bought into the beltway pundit spin a bit too much this cycle.
I feel like the way Michigan will go, as in house districts 1,7, and 9, the house will go.
All three races are close, with Peters leading in most of the polls, Schauer gaining/leading in the polls, and Mcdowell down by three in polls not including a very real third party candidate.
Charlie Baker (several times), Deval Patrick (a few times), John Tierney, Steve Grossman (Dem for MA Treasurer), Frank Guinta, Annie Kuster (once each.) There may have been more as I did not see any of the 1 PM games and only part of the 8PM game.
I feel bad for the NH candidates because they have to advertise in Boston, where they reach a market that is overwhelmingly out-of-district. I thought that candidates up there had an way of running ads on Boston stations but reaching NH homes only, but Guinta and Kuster were on broadcast TV here anyway. I do recall seeing many Shaheen and Sununu ads in both 2002 and 2008.
Boston Globe/UNH Poll: MA-4: Frank up 46-33. MA-10: Keating up 37-33, very many undecideds.
New Hawaii Poll: Obama ads helped (practically the only or almost only state where he’s very popular still), Abercrombie up 51-43, private Dem and GOP polling also show Abercrombie pulling ahead – Star Adv
He’s campaigning for 24 straight hours.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
He’s destined for great things.
PPP tweets thus:
15,034 voted. Impressive for a Sunday.
http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/…
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10…
An article like this can make me feel pretty grim about the future of our democracy.
In only the second public poll of this race, and the first and weeks, the Michigan 1st is a pure toss-up.
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs…
It has a margin of error of 4.9%
I interpret this as good news for McDowell. After an early summer poll showing Benishek far ahead, McDowell has closed the gap, and the independent candidate has a conservative platform almost identical to Benishek’s. Benishek has long sensed peaked, and being a naturally blue area, I feel that most of the undecideds will come home to the Dems.
It’s increasingly looking like the Dems will hold MI-9, MI-7, MI-1 and actually be competitive in MI-3 for the first time in decades.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…