Iowa: 2-1-1

Not always I want leave in 0 to the republicans. Iowa is not a state for want it. My map for Iowa find 2D-1Swing-1R.

Habitually I bid not for the states without political data, because still I have enough with California or Pennsylvania (maybe later) for think in other states, but I have a idea what make so easy the calculus and I think the result of the bid help for it.

This is the map:

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CD-01: B Braley (D)

57.98% Obama => D+5 (Currently D+5)

Based in Davenport (3rd city in Iowa)

Includes all of: Scott, Clinton, Jackson, Dubuque, Delaware, Clayton, Allamakee, Buchanan, Fayette, Winneshiek, Black Howk, Bremer, Chickasaw, Howard, Grundy, Butler, Floyd, Mitchell, Worth, Cerro Gordo and Franklin counties.

CD-02: D Loebsack (D)

57.97% Obama => D+5 (Currently D+7)

Based in Cedar Rapids (2nd city in Iowa)

Includes all of: Jones, Cedar, Muscatine, Louisa, Des Moines, Linn, Johnson, Washington, Henry, Lee, Benton, Iowa, Keokuk, Jefferson, Van Buren, Tama, Poweshiek, Mahaska, Wapello, Davis, Monroe, Appanoose, Lucas and Wayne counties.

CD-03: L Boswell (D) and T Latham (R)

53.75% Obama => D+1 (Currently D+1 and EVEN)

Based in Des Moines (1st city in Iowa)

Includes all of: Hardin, Marshall, Jasper, Marion, Hamilton, Story, Polk, Warren, Clarke, Boone, Dallas and Madison.

CD-04: S King (R)

46.05% Obama => R+7 (Currently R+9)

Based in Sioux City (4th city in Iowa)

Includes all of: The rest of the counties.

They are compact districts what respect the boundaries of the counties and respect the unity of the metropolitan areas in the state.

The new CD-01 and CD-02 districts are in risk of lose some point in the Cook PVI rating because both districts must asume new areas from districts with less democratic rating. Still I think this model for redistricting Iowa keep booth enough safe. The same reason make the future CD-04 down from R+9 until R+6.

The new CD-03 can give a decent chance to L Boswell because every bid for make a new district here what keep all the Polk county inside the district will give a strong position to L Boswell against T Latham.

28 thoughts on “Iowa: 2-1-1”

  3. thanks for posting it–compact to a tee and very logical.

    I am not sure who would be madder-the democrats or the GOP is this map was adopted.

    1. Boswell loses lots of familar territory and gains a bunch of counties that went republican in 2010. Even the county with Ames only went 49-46 for the democrat candidate for Gov.  Yup he is getting older.  Braley just survives and he gets new area added that is republican oriented–not heavily republican but remember with redistricting.  Its not 2014-2020 that congressman worry about its 2012.  

    2. Latham obviousily gets the shaft under this plan but does not have options.

    Here’s a bold guess on my part. Iowa is supposed to be nonpartisan and just let the computer spin redistricting.  Generally speaking the 2000 plan was unfavorable to the GOP IMO. IMO 1990 was more to the GOP liking-over time that is.  So the roll of the dice favors the GOP this year.  I look for a fair fight between either Latham and Braley or Latham and Braley.

    Just absolute wild guess.  

  5. I wouldn’t quite call CD1 “Davenport-based”, most of the population is in the Northeast Iowa media district with Waterloo and Dubuque.  Regardless, it contains all but 1 county that Bruce Braley represents now, and Decorah/Mason City shouldn’t be that big an addition; most of those cities were in the 1990s 2nd district.

    But this looks basically how I expect the districts will go, at least on map #1.  The Republicans might prefer a map with something more like the 1990s 4th district Des Moines to Council Bluffs, but I don’t think they’ll get it.

  6. Braley keeps the major metro areas he’s been representing. He gets some Republican territory but also Mason City, a pretty Democratic area.

    The Iowa City/Cedar Rapids corridor and the Des Moines metro area aren’t broken into different districts, so that’s good.

    I suspect it would end up being a 2-2 map, but Democrats would be favored if Latham retired or ran for higher office.

    If anyone wants to compare, here’s an old Bleeding Heartland diary that looked at three other four-district maps for Iowa.

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