What happens if its clear that Snowe is DOA in an R primary? Does she go indy, and if so who does she caucus with? I assume she would not go full dem, she’s a Republican at heart. Or does she just retire with dignity, or does she rough it out in the primary and hope to get luck. I’d say she’ll rough it out. She has been moving to the right, doubt it will save her. I am not saying she’s DOA now but I really do think she will have a rough time and I think this will be a great pickup opportunity for us. Who should we run? Michaud, Culter, Baldacci, heck maybe even Snowe?
But a couple weeks ago someone was talking about the Nevada BiPartisan Reid Ensign Love Fest Staff Holiday Party (NBPRELFS)…Looks like it continued even after a bruising year for both men:
What are the likeliest nominees in several of senatorial/gubernatorial/presidential nominating contests? You can list as many as you like for as many different states as you want and can also factor in retirements. However, your choices can’t be the current frontrunners for whatever it is that they’re running for. For example, you can’t select Evan Bayh as the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Indiana or George Allen as the Republican senatorial nominee in Virginia, but you can choose Jon Weinzapfel or Ken Cuccinelli, respectively.
Mine:
Sen: (R-CT) Sam Caligiuri
Gov: (R-NC) Virginia Foxx
Pres: (R) Rick Perry
What are yours?
Something I started thinking about this week is what happens if Gabrielle Giffords takes the plunge and runs for Senate. AZ-08 probably won’t change all that much with redistricting (might lose part or all of Cochise County, could pick up some white liberal neighborhoods from AZ-07), so we can get an idea what we’d probably be working with.
I ended up making a list of the top 5 potential serious candidates for both parties, based on the chances of them getting in (not necessarily an assessment of their odds of winning a nomination or general election).
—Would bring name recognition and lots of money to a tough campaign. That money could also scare a lot of people on this list out of running.
—Glassman is a very polarizing candidate; he probably has more enemies than friends in Pima County political circles at this point. Also he might prefer to run for mayor of Tucson.
2. 2010 Corporation Commissioner Candidate David Bradley (D-Tucson)
—The soon-to-be former State Rep and former chair of Pima County Dems would have good fundraising ties.
—His Corporation Commission plan was bad, bad, bad. Unfortunately this wasn’t a race that we had a great chance at given the environment, but the combined vote for Bradley and fellow Democratic candidate Jorge Luis Garcia was the worst of any statewide Democratic candidate other than Glassman. Knocks him down to tier-two status at best.
3. State Representative Steve Farley (D-Tucson)
—A policy-oriented pragmatist, Farley would surely bring more passion to the race than anyone above him on the list. Farley also brings regional name recognition due to his leadership in establishing the Regional Transit Authority.
—Farley’s never really had to run a tough general elections. He’s won a few tough primaries, but his never been seriously threatened in the general in his (and my) 62% Obama Midtown Tucson district. He also technically lives outside the district, but only just and that might change in redistricting. He probably wouldn’t run against Bradley and definitely not Valadez.
4. Pima County Supervisor Sharon Bronson (D-Tucson Estates)
—The County government has been much more functional than the city of state government, so a BOS member wouldn’t be a bad choice for us. Bronson doesn’t make too many waves but she’s a smart, pragmatic progressive who knows how to win races.
—She expressed no interest in this race in 2006, even though she probably had the clout to muscle out or defeat Giffords and (former Tucson anchorwoman, who incidentally moved to another state so she isn’t running) Patty Weiss in the primary. Maybe she’ll take a harder look at this race if AZ-08 moves a tick or two to the left, but I’m not sure that she’s that interested in going to Washington. Also important; she doesn’t live anywhere near AZ-08, though most of the population of her BOS district live in AZ-08, so she could probably pull it off.
5. Pima County Supervisor Ramón Valadez (D-Tucson)
—Probably comes off as the most interested in going to congress out of anyone on this list. Again, I think that if we run someone with a political background that it would be most advantageous to run someone from the BOS. Valadez brings pragmatic progressivism, crossover appeal among whites in his roughly 50-50 Hispanic-White district and strong political skills (his BOS district isn’t terribly competitive but he’s played a prominent role behind the scenes in several successful Southern AZ campaigns).
—AZ-08 might be a tantalizing choice for Valadez if he’s trying to cultivate his appeal among swing white voters for a statewide run someday, but if he just wants to get to congress, he’ll probably hold out for AZ-07. If Grijalva retires sometime in the next few cycles, Valadez could probably clear most of the field and maybe even earn a Grijalva endorsement. He also technically lives in AZ-07, but much like Farley he’s right on the line and has a good chance of ending up in AZ-08 after redistricting. Incidentally, he would definitely not run in a primary against Farley and probably not against Bronson.
Republicans
1. 2010 Congressional Candidate Jesse Kelly (R-Marana)
—Kelly has gained many loyal supporters from his 2010 race and could probably parlay that support into another run. His 2010 run also proved that he may be the cockiest person in politics, which also helps.
—Look, he couldn’t beat a Democrat who voted for Health Care Reform in a McCain district. He’ll probably be under pressure from some parts of the party to step aside and let a candidate who syncs up better with the district ideologically.
2. State Sen. Frank Antenori (R-Vail)
—Someone what more conservative and (more importantly tea-party oriented) than his predecessor Jonathan Paton, Frank Antenori could potentially bridge the establishment-tea party divide in the Republican primary. While his record doesn’t necessarily appeal much to moderates, he typically gets credit for a high level of responsiveness even to constituent who strongly disagree with him, in contrast with the bombastic Kelly.
—He’s really pushing the limit of conservativism that this district will take. Of course, Kelly did almost win just by nature of turnout heavily favoring a conservative candidate and the horrific environment for Dems, but that would not necessarily be the case in 2012, especially with Obama probably making a strong push for the state (and in this scenario, Giffords turning out lots of Dems and independents down here by running for Senate). Repubs would probably be better served by running someone a little closer to the center, though whether the ambitious Antenori would respect this desire is questionable.
3. Former State Senator Jonathan Paton (R-Tucson)
—Kelly-Paton grudge-match 2012? The teabagging of once-major Republican rising star Jonathan Paton was one of the bigger surprises of primary season 2010 and likely handed AZ-08 to Gabrielle Giffords on a silver platter. Paton, who’s actually pretty conservative, just not totally crazy, might be interested in making an “I-told-you-so” style run for the seat in 2012, and is probably conservative enough that he can atone for a lot of his alleged sins with the tea partiers.
—He’s been inexplicably teabagged before, he can be teabagged again, and he might not be up to that. He also might defer to another establishment Repub like Carroll whose “turn” it is.
4. Pima County Supervisor Ray Carroll (R-Tucson)
—Carroll seriously considered running in 2006, but declined to spend more time with his young family. Now that they’re six years older, I can see him taking another look at this seat. As a supervisor, he has managed to please conservatives with his tough stand on taxes while still appealing to moderates with his leadership on issues such as trying to block an open pit mine in the Santa Rita Mountains. His profile is pretty moderate overall, which would serve him well in the general election.
—About those tea parties… yeah, I don’t know how well this would work. Like I said, he’s done a good job of endearing himself to conservatives, but so had Jonathan Paton, who cultivated a more conservative record in the legislature than Carroll has on the BOS. Incidentally, I doubt that Carroll and Paton would run against each other in a primary. I don’t know the twisted network of Republican alliances as well as I do the Democratic ones, but I think that they’re close.
5. State Rep. David Stevens (R-Sierra Vista)
—David Stevens would bring geographic diversity to the primary and general (he’s from Sierra Vista in Cochise County; everyone else on this list is from the Tucson suburbs) and experience running in tough campaigns in a swing legislative district. His record probably isn’t quite where the tea partiers would want it to be, but he knows how to throw them a bone (he’s a loud and proud 17ther, for example).
—Might have trouble breaking though the noise in a pack of more ambitious politicians. Also, he has the social conservative-economic “moderate” (I’m using the term relative to other AZ Republicans) record that works worse in Arizona than it does in most states for Repubs.
So with that, practically diary-length comment in mind, does anyone else with knowledge of districts that are likely to change little in redistricting have an idea about some potential candidates? It’s never too early to start thinking about potential candidates, especially in races like this one that could be very interesting.
Maybe I am reading too much into this, but Tom Latham (IA-04) was one of only 17 House Republicans to vote for the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act. When 30-50 House Repubs vote with Democrats, I’m not surprised to see Latham in the group, but this seemed like a pretty small number of defectors for him to join. Wondering if he is going to sprinkle more moderation into his voting record ahead of a possible run in the redrawn IA-03 in 2012.
As I’ve said many times, I believe Latham will move to IA-03 if Story County (Ames) isn’t drawn into the district. I do NOT think he wants to face a GOP primary against Steve King in the new IA-04.
Latham is a good buddy of Boehner, so probably wouldn’t face consequences for voting the “wrong” way from time to time.
let’s say you decided to run for office, for those who think it’s idiotic to run, imagine you got knocked in the head and everything about you was the same except all of a sudden, you want to run for office. what would eventually doom you? I’d be doomed by weird, offhanded comments espousing even odder ideas. example: the family unit is the smallest form of communism
re-elected the entire leadership team for the 2012 cycle. They need to improve the GOTV. Even in a bad year nationally, we should have been able to save more of our incumbents. I am concerned, because I assume Obama’s staff will basically take over the coordinated campaign in 2012, as happened in Iowa in 2008. Their key areas to focus on turnout are not in the battleground state House and Senate districts.
Nixon holds a modest lead over LG Kinder. 47-39. Low approvals with dems.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
What happens if its clear that Snowe is DOA in an R primary? Does she go indy, and if so who does she caucus with? I assume she would not go full dem, she’s a Republican at heart. Or does she just retire with dignity, or does she rough it out in the primary and hope to get luck. I’d say she’ll rough it out. She has been moving to the right, doubt it will save her. I am not saying she’s DOA now but I really do think she will have a rough time and I think this will be a great pickup opportunity for us. Who should we run? Michaud, Culter, Baldacci, heck maybe even Snowe?
But a couple weeks ago someone was talking about the Nevada BiPartisan Reid Ensign Love Fest Staff Holiday Party (NBPRELFS)…Looks like it continued even after a bruising year for both men:
http://www.lvrj.com/blogs/poli…
What are the likeliest nominees in several of senatorial/gubernatorial/presidential nominating contests? You can list as many as you like for as many different states as you want and can also factor in retirements. However, your choices can’t be the current frontrunners for whatever it is that they’re running for. For example, you can’t select Evan Bayh as the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Indiana or George Allen as the Republican senatorial nominee in Virginia, but you can choose Jon Weinzapfel or Ken Cuccinelli, respectively.
Mine:
Sen: (R-CT) Sam Caligiuri
Gov: (R-NC) Virginia Foxx
Pres: (R) Rick Perry
What are yours?
Something I started thinking about this week is what happens if Gabrielle Giffords takes the plunge and runs for Senate. AZ-08 probably won’t change all that much with redistricting (might lose part or all of Cochise County, could pick up some white liberal neighborhoods from AZ-07), so we can get an idea what we’d probably be working with.
I ended up making a list of the top 5 potential serious candidates for both parties, based on the chances of them getting in (not necessarily an assessment of their odds of winning a nomination or general election).
Democrats
1. 2010 Senate Candidate Rodney Glassman (D-Tucson)
—Would bring name recognition and lots of money to a tough campaign. That money could also scare a lot of people on this list out of running.
—Glassman is a very polarizing candidate; he probably has more enemies than friends in Pima County political circles at this point. Also he might prefer to run for mayor of Tucson.
2. 2010 Corporation Commissioner Candidate David Bradley (D-Tucson)
—The soon-to-be former State Rep and former chair of Pima County Dems would have good fundraising ties.
—His Corporation Commission plan was bad, bad, bad. Unfortunately this wasn’t a race that we had a great chance at given the environment, but the combined vote for Bradley and fellow Democratic candidate Jorge Luis Garcia was the worst of any statewide Democratic candidate other than Glassman. Knocks him down to tier-two status at best.
3. State Representative Steve Farley (D-Tucson)
—A policy-oriented pragmatist, Farley would surely bring more passion to the race than anyone above him on the list. Farley also brings regional name recognition due to his leadership in establishing the Regional Transit Authority.
—Farley’s never really had to run a tough general elections. He’s won a few tough primaries, but his never been seriously threatened in the general in his (and my) 62% Obama Midtown Tucson district. He also technically lives outside the district, but only just and that might change in redistricting. He probably wouldn’t run against Bradley and definitely not Valadez.
4. Pima County Supervisor Sharon Bronson (D-Tucson Estates)
—The County government has been much more functional than the city of state government, so a BOS member wouldn’t be a bad choice for us. Bronson doesn’t make too many waves but she’s a smart, pragmatic progressive who knows how to win races.
—She expressed no interest in this race in 2006, even though she probably had the clout to muscle out or defeat Giffords and (former Tucson anchorwoman, who incidentally moved to another state so she isn’t running) Patty Weiss in the primary. Maybe she’ll take a harder look at this race if AZ-08 moves a tick or two to the left, but I’m not sure that she’s that interested in going to Washington. Also important; she doesn’t live anywhere near AZ-08, though most of the population of her BOS district live in AZ-08, so she could probably pull it off.
5. Pima County Supervisor Ramón Valadez (D-Tucson)
—Probably comes off as the most interested in going to congress out of anyone on this list. Again, I think that if we run someone with a political background that it would be most advantageous to run someone from the BOS. Valadez brings pragmatic progressivism, crossover appeal among whites in his roughly 50-50 Hispanic-White district and strong political skills (his BOS district isn’t terribly competitive but he’s played a prominent role behind the scenes in several successful Southern AZ campaigns).
—AZ-08 might be a tantalizing choice for Valadez if he’s trying to cultivate his appeal among swing white voters for a statewide run someday, but if he just wants to get to congress, he’ll probably hold out for AZ-07. If Grijalva retires sometime in the next few cycles, Valadez could probably clear most of the field and maybe even earn a Grijalva endorsement. He also technically lives in AZ-07, but much like Farley he’s right on the line and has a good chance of ending up in AZ-08 after redistricting. Incidentally, he would definitely not run in a primary against Farley and probably not against Bronson.
Republicans
1. 2010 Congressional Candidate Jesse Kelly (R-Marana)
—Kelly has gained many loyal supporters from his 2010 race and could probably parlay that support into another run. His 2010 run also proved that he may be the cockiest person in politics, which also helps.
—Look, he couldn’t beat a Democrat who voted for Health Care Reform in a McCain district. He’ll probably be under pressure from some parts of the party to step aside and let a candidate who syncs up better with the district ideologically.
2. State Sen. Frank Antenori (R-Vail)
—Someone what more conservative and (more importantly tea-party oriented) than his predecessor Jonathan Paton, Frank Antenori could potentially bridge the establishment-tea party divide in the Republican primary. While his record doesn’t necessarily appeal much to moderates, he typically gets credit for a high level of responsiveness even to constituent who strongly disagree with him, in contrast with the bombastic Kelly.
—He’s really pushing the limit of conservativism that this district will take. Of course, Kelly did almost win just by nature of turnout heavily favoring a conservative candidate and the horrific environment for Dems, but that would not necessarily be the case in 2012, especially with Obama probably making a strong push for the state (and in this scenario, Giffords turning out lots of Dems and independents down here by running for Senate). Repubs would probably be better served by running someone a little closer to the center, though whether the ambitious Antenori would respect this desire is questionable.
3. Former State Senator Jonathan Paton (R-Tucson)
—Kelly-Paton grudge-match 2012? The teabagging of once-major Republican rising star Jonathan Paton was one of the bigger surprises of primary season 2010 and likely handed AZ-08 to Gabrielle Giffords on a silver platter. Paton, who’s actually pretty conservative, just not totally crazy, might be interested in making an “I-told-you-so” style run for the seat in 2012, and is probably conservative enough that he can atone for a lot of his alleged sins with the tea partiers.
—He’s been inexplicably teabagged before, he can be teabagged again, and he might not be up to that. He also might defer to another establishment Repub like Carroll whose “turn” it is.
4. Pima County Supervisor Ray Carroll (R-Tucson)
—Carroll seriously considered running in 2006, but declined to spend more time with his young family. Now that they’re six years older, I can see him taking another look at this seat. As a supervisor, he has managed to please conservatives with his tough stand on taxes while still appealing to moderates with his leadership on issues such as trying to block an open pit mine in the Santa Rita Mountains. His profile is pretty moderate overall, which would serve him well in the general election.
—About those tea parties… yeah, I don’t know how well this would work. Like I said, he’s done a good job of endearing himself to conservatives, but so had Jonathan Paton, who cultivated a more conservative record in the legislature than Carroll has on the BOS. Incidentally, I doubt that Carroll and Paton would run against each other in a primary. I don’t know the twisted network of Republican alliances as well as I do the Democratic ones, but I think that they’re close.
5. State Rep. David Stevens (R-Sierra Vista)
—David Stevens would bring geographic diversity to the primary and general (he’s from Sierra Vista in Cochise County; everyone else on this list is from the Tucson suburbs) and experience running in tough campaigns in a swing legislative district. His record probably isn’t quite where the tea partiers would want it to be, but he knows how to throw them a bone (he’s a loud and proud 17ther, for example).
—Might have trouble breaking though the noise in a pack of more ambitious politicians. Also, he has the social conservative-economic “moderate” (I’m using the term relative to other AZ Republicans) record that works worse in Arizona than it does in most states for Repubs.
So with that, practically diary-length comment in mind, does anyone else with knowledge of districts that are likely to change little in redistricting have an idea about some potential candidates? It’s never too early to start thinking about potential candidates, especially in races like this one that could be very interesting.
Maybe I am reading too much into this, but Tom Latham (IA-04) was one of only 17 House Republicans to vote for the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act. When 30-50 House Repubs vote with Democrats, I’m not surprised to see Latham in the group, but this seemed like a pretty small number of defectors for him to join. Wondering if he is going to sprinkle more moderation into his voting record ahead of a possible run in the redrawn IA-03 in 2012.
As I’ve said many times, I believe Latham will move to IA-03 if Story County (Ames) isn’t drawn into the district. I do NOT think he wants to face a GOP primary against Steve King in the new IA-04.
Latham is a good buddy of Boehner, so probably wouldn’t face consequences for voting the “wrong” way from time to time.
let’s say you decided to run for office, for those who think it’s idiotic to run, imagine you got knocked in the head and everything about you was the same except all of a sudden, you want to run for office. what would eventually doom you? I’d be doomed by weird, offhanded comments espousing even odder ideas. example: the family unit is the smallest form of communism
http://www.bluevirginia.us/dia…
No comment.
http://politicalticker.blogs.c…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/…
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo…
But I just compared Michael Scott to Sarah Palin to a prof, anyone else see the correlation?
Is sounding very Senate candidate-ish in her Wikileaks comments, especially since most of the time she’s a fairly low-key lawmaker.
http://www.mlive.com/news/detr…
re-elected the entire leadership team for the 2012 cycle. They need to improve the GOTV. Even in a bad year nationally, we should have been able to save more of our incumbents. I am concerned, because I assume Obama’s staff will basically take over the coordinated campaign in 2012, as happened in Iowa in 2008. Their key areas to focus on turnout are not in the battleground state House and Senate districts.
So there’s an update on the second of the three gubernatorial losers. I’m a little surprised, I thought he would just retire after the shellacking he got, not to mention the divorce.