This writeup will be brief and will lack detail pictures. Dave’s app ate one of my save files for the Maryland map, and the Utah map I drew up on a public computer when I was bored.
Utah will gain one seat. Rep. Matheson, the only Democrat in the Beehive State’s congressional district, has resisted every effort to defeat him. With the Wasatch Front gobbling up so much of Utah’s voting population and Salt Lake County trending blue, I think Utah Republicans will be relieved to confine Matheson to the state’s most populous county and parcel out his redder rural and suburban territory to help create a new district. Rep. Chaffetz will probably run against Sen. Hatch in 2012, but if he doesn’t, he could run in the new UT-04, as he’s been drawn out of UT-03. It really doesn’t matter, as UT-01, UT-03, and UT-04 would probably vote for Attila the Hun as long as he could prove he was a naturalized U.S. citizen.
All of these districts but MD-06 (teal) are safe Democratic seats. I posted this map in the comments section of a now-buried diary, but I figured I’d repost it in a new diary. Rep. Kratovil can run for MD-01 (blue) from his Stevensville home in coastal Queen Anne’s County. Rep. Bartlett has been drawn out of MD-06, with the blueing city of Frederick (as well as its little cousin of Hagerstown, in Washington County) drawn into Rep. Van Hollen’s MD-08 (slate blue). Rep.-elect Harris would probably do just fine in MD-06. Just to give you an idea of exactly how Democratic this state is, MD-06 voted for Sen. McCain over Sen. Obama in 2008 by within a point of the same margin by which MD-05 (yellow) and MD-08 broke for Sen. Obama. MD-04 (red) and MD-07 (grey) are black-majority VRA districts (54% black, 22% white; and 53% black, 33% white respectively). I may have drawn Rep. Sarbanes out of MD-03 (purple), but moving across Baltimore is really not a big deal for a congressman.
plus I don’t think Harris lives in your MD-06, and Sarbanes for sure doesn’t live in your MD-03, as he lives in Towson which is a Northern suburb of Baltimore. Plus, having Worcester county be in the same district as PG is almost criminal…
That said, I like the fact that you give Matheson his own seat, though I’m not sure the UT GOP will be so kind.
Someone here proposed this before. I think it’s pretty awesome.
Republican tried to push Matheson out before, but it failed, so they might leave him alone and concede that one district in the state will be winnable for a Democrat. On the other hand, they might try again.
Utah is Republican enough that there’s no need to give Matheson the most Democratic seat possible – the rest of the state will still be solidly GOP in any case. Perhaps they could try to draw him a seat that is just Democratic enough that a liberal could potentially beat him at the convention (considering what happened this year) but be Republican enough that said liberal would have little chance at winning the general election.
Matheson got 55% against a primary foe this year. Would he really want a district with all the state’s liberals in it? There was a wide array of groups that have been fighting mad over his votes the last two years. I might add that a Salt Lake county seat would re-elect him but maybe not the guy who ran against him in the primary this year.
What will Utah GOP do? who knows?
(Put the SLC-area map into a new window to see it bigger.)
SLC can be split up equally into four quadrants, each with about 250,000 people in them.
UT-01 (blue) – Loses parts of the northern end of the state but picks up parts of the southwestern end of the state (and some of UT-03’s SLC portion, which went for McCain), which if anything makes the district redder.
UT-02 (green) – Essentially a new district for Matheson; gives him most of Salt Lake City proper but adds some very Republican parts of north Utah.
UT-03 (purple) – Loses most of Utah County but gains pretty much all the rural parts of the state; Chaffetz actually gets drawn into this district (he lives in Alpine, currently in UT-02), if he were to stay for another term. The southwestern part of SLC also looks to be the most Republican.
UT-04 (red) – the southeastern quadrant of SLC gets broken off from UT-02 and is attached to the Happy Valley, which is not going to elect a Democrat. Ever.
Matheson could try for another term in UT-02 and see if he could win over enough voters in the northern part of the state (plus he’d be handicapped by having less of SLC), but it would be tough.
free idea to split Salt Lake county -four ways.
Not big on maps until exact census numbers come out-but I am thankful for those produce these maps here-but it seems very possible to keep carving up Salt Lake county to make things harder for Matheston
Same basic design with a few tweaks, particularly in Montgomery County and Frederick County, and especially around Baltimore.
MD-01 (blue)
55% Obama, 43% McCain
67% white, 22% black
This district will be held by Republican Rep.-elect Andy Harris in the 112th Congress, but he’s been drawn out of this district. It’s tailor-made for Rep. Frank Kratovil, a Blue Dog Democrat, to make a comeback after his defeat last month.
MD-02 (green)
62% Obama, 37% McCain
62% white, 29% black
This district is held by Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, a Democrat, who should be fine here, of course. It also includes all of Cockeysville, where both Ruppersberger and Harris live. Harris could run here, but he’d get blown away in the general.
MD-03 (purple)
59% Obama, 39% McCain
66% white, 20% black
I redrew this district to include Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes, who lives in Towson in Baltimore County. It’s probably the district I’m least happy with on the map, as Sarbanes is a liberal stuck in a district that includes a lot of reddish suburbs and exurbs. Even still, he should be heavily tipped to win reelection, especially since the Republican bench in Maryland is pathetic.
MD-04 (red)
89% Obama, 11% McCain
18% white, 57% black
The first of two VRA districts on the map, this district could be retained by Harry Belafonte for the Democrats if Rep. Donna Edwards wasn’t on the ballot.
MD-05 (yellow)
63% Obama, 36% McCain
55% white, 34% black
Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer, due to be House minority whip in the 112th Congress, should have smooth sailing here, even though the district crosses the Chesapeake Bay to incorporate the swingy southern counties of the Eastern Shore.
MD-06 (teal)
34% Obama, 64% McCain
91% white, 4% black
The most conservative district one can conceivably draw in Maryland is (not coincidentally) also the whitest. Sadly for the Republicans, both Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, the Republican occupying the present incarnation of this district, and Rep.-elect Harris live outside its boundaries. I’m guessing Bartlett will retire in 2012 and Harris will run in a district that looks a lot like this, although a new face is possible.
MD-07 (grey)
82% Obama, 16% McCain
31% white, 55% black
This district straddles Baltimore and Montgomery County, which would be a huge problem in terms of advertising (as Montgomery and Prince George’s counties are in the D.C. media market, while pretty much all the rest of Maryland is in the Baltimore media market) if this district, held by Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings, was remotely competitive.
MD-08 (slate blue)
63% Obama, 35% McCain
71% white, 9% black, 10% Asian, 9% Latino
The racial makeup of this district amuses me, so I though I’d include it. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, the Democrat who ran the DCCC for the previous two cycles (performing a lot better in one than he did in the other, unfortunately), has a bit tougher a seat, but that’s a relative term. Even with big pieces of reddish Frederick and Washington counties (including the swingish, blueing cities of Frederick and Hagerstown) included in what is currently a Montgomery County district, this district is still solidly Democratic.
The app gets hungry sometimes, so watch out…
I recommend using 2.0, so you can save and load your files normally, in whatever directory you like.
Is there any good reason why the Dems can’t go for all eight seats in Maryland? In the last round they packed the Morrella and Ehrlich districts to make sure they could flip them, which has left Democrats very inefficiently distributed. Here’s a map I quickly came up with:
This is how the districts break down:
District 1 (Blue):
Obama: 54%
McCain: 44%
District 2 (Green):
Obama: 55%
McCain: 43%
District 3 (Magenta):
Obama: 54%
McCain: 45%
District 4 (Red):
Obama: 82%
McCain: 17%
District 5 (Gold):
Obama: 65%
McCain: 34%
District 6 (Teal):
Obama: 54%
McCain: 44%
District 7 (Gray):
Obama: 73%
McCain: 26%
District 8 (SlateBlue):
Obama: 62%
McCain: 37%
Districts 4 & 7 are still majority-minority districts (55% and 52% respectively).