Clarus (pdf) (12/7-9, Virginia voters, no trendlines)
Jim Webb (D-inc): 41
George Allen (R): 40
Undecided: 19Jim Webb (D-inc): 39
Bob McDonnell (R): 42
Undecided: 19Jim Webb (D-inc): 44
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 33
Undecided: 23
MoE: ±4%
Yes, yes, I know Jim Webb was a Marine, not a Navy aviator, so the Top Gun/Kenny Loggins reference is a bit misplaced, but the point still stands. Despite leading likely opponent George Allen in their rematch, Jim Webb is in a fairly dangerous position, well below the 50% mark that supposedly represents safety, even below 50 against the simultaneously little-known and polarizing AG Ken Cuccinelli. (Although think about the Senators who squeaked by in November despite routinely polling nowhere near 50%…)
Webb’s approvals are actually quite good, at 47/24; given the dropoff, it seems like there are a fair share of Republican and indie voters who approve of the man but still don’t want a Democrat in office. The 29% who “don’t know” is also surprisingly high. (Mark Warner fares even better, at 57/23, as does new GOP governor Bob McDonnell, at 53/27.) There’s one other very interesting data point in the crosstabs that’s worth sharing, that says a lot about the parties in Virginia, who’s in what party, and the very bright line somewhere around Fredericksburg that demarcates the Northeast from the South: Webb’s approvals are much higher among people making over $100,000 per year (54%) than those making under (45%).
One other bit of Virginia news: ex-Rep. Tom Davis, last seen getting cock-blocked out of the 2008 Senate nomination by the decision to hold an nominating convention rather than a primary, has decided that the GOP has gone even further away from his direction and isn’t even going to bother with this cycle. Davis used to represent Dem-leaning VA-11 and is from the sorta-moderate-or-at-least-sane camp of Republicans that would make him an imposing general election competitor if there were a way anymore for him to emerge with a primary victory.
He’s never been serious about constituency service and seems bored (at best) with his job. I mentioned previously I’ve heard he’s lobbying very hard to get Gates job this summer, but it remains to be seen if Obama even wants him (Is anyone dying to find out how another republican, even an ex-republican, would run DoD?) and if the WH would be willing to suffer the abuse from having given another Senate seat to the GOP.
I think Allen’s attacks on Webb recently are based more on keeping Webb in the race than winning the election, I think Allen’s team (rightly) sees Kaine as a far more dangerous opponent than a feckless and disinterested Webb.
The tea party crowd absolutely loves the man, and he is raising his name recognition because of that district court ruling against health care reform. Don’t be surprised if he comes out of that primary.
I finally get rid of my Archer kick and you bring up Danger Zone. Just lost another day of productivity.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Does anyone know where I can find a somewhat comprehensive list of GOP filibusters in the last year or so? I’m trying to piece them together from news articles and don’t know how many I’m missing.
Here are a few to get you started:
1. Craig Becker
2. 9/11 Responders
3. Defense authorization with DADT and DREAM ACT
4. Various Unemployment Benefit Extensions
5. Small Business jobs bill (cloture eventually successful)
Any more?
1. About a fourth to a fifth of the electorate is undecided. That seems extremely large, especially when you consider Allen was elected governor and then senator. People say that Webb hasn’t done enough constituent services, but at the same time, isn’t this also an indication that people aren’t reflexively anti-Democratic so much as just really, really not sure of which way they are leaning at the moment?
2. If Webb’s biggest problem is constituent services, isn’t that really a good thing? I mean, if the hardest thing he has to do is go out and talk to people, shouldn’t he just do it if he wants the job? He has every opportunity to define himself more before the others do it for him.
3. Maybe he can bring Mark Warner along. I mean, damn, that guy is doing well. It’s questionable how much impact candidates from particular states actually have, but it looks like he could deliver Virginia to the Democrats in 2016 without much of a problem. And if he does have presidential ambitions, that’s hardly a bad opening offer.
4. How is Ken Cuccinelli so unknown? He’s not some state senator from some rural area. He’s the Attorney General. You’d think he’d have fairly high name recognition
5. What is the breakdown of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents? Am I being dense and missing it, or was it never mentioned? If it wasn’t mentioned, how do we know that it wasn’t skewed in some way?
6. This is one poll, which contrasts with the PPP poll from a few weeks ago. It’s not really clear what the status of his reelection chances is, except to say he’s not going to win with some outrageous percent of the vote, which nobody expected him to do anyway.
7. Just how much will the work that the Obama campaign put in last time and what they will certainly put in next time help Webb, especially if the biggest counties go against the Republican more than they did the last time? Also, can Obama help Webb in some of the smaller but still big counties, like Chesterfield?
For argument’s sake, let’s do a very rough calculation. In 2006, Webb received 40 percent of the vote (42,204 votes) in Chesterfield County, while Allen received 59 percent (61,956 votes). In 2008, Obama received 46 percent (74,310 votes), and McCain 54 percent (86,413 votes). I’m not really sure who would be voting for Obama for president but trying to vote George Allen back into the Senate unless the Republican nominee is Sarah Palin, but let’s use the 2008 numbers but change the 2006 percentages slightly, so that Webb would get 43 percent and Allen 57 percent. That would give Webb about 69,111 votes, versus about 64,289 votes if he received his 2006 total. That’s a pretty big difference. So while the Democratic advantage from last time might not be so pronounced, my guess is that Webb can only benefit from Obama being at the top of the ticket, unless it’s a truly awful year for the Democrats. I’m almost ready to say that if Obama wins Virginia, Webb wins, regardless of who the Republicans nominate.
Speaking out in favor of the DREAM Act. What does that say about a possible Senate run? Does it mean that he is positioning himself for a run, or wants to just serve as a national fund raiser and figurehead? Would it make his chances of winning better or worse in Virginia?
71% of voters in his district voted straight Democratic this November (yes, this year, a terrible year in TX for Dems). This is undoubtedly a suicide mission on his part, like that McKillip guy in Athens, GA.
(Sorry for posting this year, I’m too impatient to wait for the Daily Digest.)
He’s been in the news a lot this week because of the judicial challenge to the individual mandate. I would have expected him to be in the upper 30’s with the Republican base consolidated. Is he that offensive to independents?
and maybe it will put to rest the clucking about he is “dead” and all that nonsense.
Virginia looks to be close, like anyone who happened to notice his election the first time should know.
Turnout, his opponent, and Obama’s opponent will tell the tale.
Frankly, he doesn’t seem to care much for elected office.
Kaine would be fine; for some reason, I’ve never really been crazy about him, but he’s already won statewide and he’s well connected. He’d be a strong candidate. My preference is for Rep. Perriello, though.
They’re not Godawful, and they’re better than Christopher Newport University’s polling, but they’re also not all that.
I can believe high undecideds at this stage, but Clarus normally has had high undecideds much closer to election day, too, in their recent past polling.
1)I am pretty convinced now that Webb is going to retire. I don’t have any inside information to this but I am thinking that he is going to call it a career. FWIW I really like him and admire his non-politician style but he has done very little to help develop the VA Democratic bench as compared with Warner and Kaine.
2) That said I think Tim Kaine will run if Webb opts out and I am pretty encouraged by PPP’s numbers for Kaine. Kaine/Webb will receive a huge boost from Obama unless if it is like 2010 which I don’t see happening. The NoVa vote will come out and the African-American vote will come in the southside. While the white conservative vote will also come out in mass give the demographic change (more in NoVa and much less in southside) I see VA as going blue before FL or OH.
3)George Allen is damaged goods. Ken Cucinelli is way too polarizing. Allen would have a much better shot but I am not afraid of him in 2012. Cooch will run for Governor in 2013 though a part of me wants him to run for Senate in 2012.
4) I think Tom Perriello has a future but it will be in 2013.
5) Tom Davis was the GOP’s best candidate and thankfully he is out. That is what you get for being a sane non-polarizing Republican.