10-3 Republican Non-Dummymander of North Carolina

This was intended to test the extent to which the GOP could wreak havoc with North Carolina redistricting, while remaining VRA-compliant.  The key to the map is taking Mel Watt’s 12th district, and sending it eastward instead of northward (which is what the Bush Administration was trying to force NC to do in the early 1990s.  This allows massive packing of Democrats in the RTP/Greensboro/Winston-Salem area into a heavily Democratic district, that is a borderline third VRA district.  As an additional bonus, it places McIntyre, Watt and Kissell in the same district.

This would obviously engender a Shaw v. Reno-type challenge, but again, this is simply meant to test boundaries.  You can smooth the lines out in the 12th and 1st to make them not all that much worse than they presently are, especially if you don’t try to pack the three Congressmen together into the 12th.

I assumed that any district that gave McCain at least 54% of the vote would be pretty safe for Republicans, especially considering that high African American turnout probably skews these districts a touch toward the Democrats right now.

Without further adieu . . .

First District (Butterfield) — 70% Obama, 30% McCain, 42% White, 50% Black, 5% Hispanic (old district 63% Obama, 37% McCain, 50% black, 43% white, 4% H.).  This district needs to gain population, and the only way to do that is to extend it into Raleigh or Durham.  I chose the latter.  In reality, it is difficult to keep this black-majority, but you probably don’t need to do that to remain VRA compliant, which allows some smoothing of the lines (at the expense of making the 3rd/13th more Democratic).

Second District (Ellmers) — 45% Obama, 54% McCain, 67% White, 23% Black, 6% Hispanic (old district 53/47 Obama, 58/29/10 W/B/H).  This district no longer resembles a dragon viewed from above.  Ellmers loses Democratic portions of Fayetteville and Wake County, and trades them for Republican areas there.

Third District (Jones) — 42% Obama, 57% McCain, 72% White, 21% Black, 4% Hispanic (old district 62/38 McCain, 75/16/5 W/B/H).  Jones’ district loses some heavily Republican precincts on the western edge of the 1st, and gains Democratic areas in Duplin and Pender. If the 1st has to be smoothed out some, I’d extend this one down to downtown Wilmington to shore up the 7th.

Fourth District (Price/new minority Rep) 79% Obama, 20% McCain, 45% White, 42% Black, 8%Hispanic (old district 62/37 Obama, 66/19/8 W/B/H) — This basically packs as many Democratic precincts in the area as possible into one district.  I think this is probably a third VRA district, since African Americans would probably control the Democratic primary, and the district would almost certainly elect whomever comes out of that primary.

Fifth District (McHenry) — 59% McCain, 40% Obama, 78% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic (old district 63/36M, 83/9/5 W/B/H).  I flipped the district numbers here just to make the maps more readable.  McHenry gets a lot of new territory, but most of it is reliably Republican and he should have little difficulty winning here.

Sixth District (Coble) — 43% Obama, 56% McCain, 83% White, 11% Black, 5% Hispanic (old district 63%/36% McCain, 82%W, 10%B,6%H).  Coble actually gets to keep a lot of his old territory.  You could smooth out the lines with the 13th and make it look a lot more “normal” without affecting its performance that much.

Seventh District (Open) — 44%Obama, 56% McCain, 69% White, 23% Black, 5% Hisp, 2% NA (old district 52%M/47%O, 64/21/6 W/B/H, 8% NA) — The black/hispanic percentages don’t change much; the key is moving Lumbee Native Americans from Robeson County into the minority-majority 12th.  McIntyre goes with them,and this new district should easily elect a Republican.

Eighth District (Open) — 44% Obama, 55% McCain, 81% White, 10% Black, 5% Hispanic (old district 52/47 Obama, 58/28/9 W/B/H) — Kissell gets moved into the 12th.  It would be pretty simple for him to move into this district, but it is much less hospitable for him.  The new GOP voters in Randolph County and thereabouts are true GOPers, not the remnants of Southern Democrats that inhabit the current 8th.

Ninth District (Myrick) — 44% Obama, 55% McCain, 83% White, 10% Black, 4% Hispanic (old district 55/45 McCain, 77/13/6) — The topline numbers don’t change on Myrick’s district, but the racial composition changes a hair.  It’s whiter now, meaning that in years where the GOP doesn’t completely alienate everyone, it will swing further to the right than its current makeup.

Tenth District (Foxx) — 43% Obama, 56% McCain, 88% White, 6% Black, 4% Hispanic (old district 61/38 McCain, 85/7/6).  She gets a chunk of Asheville, in order to shore up the GOP #s in the 11th, but this is still Republican enough that she should win handily.

Eleventh District (Shuler) — 57% McCain, 42% Obama, 89% White, 5% Black, 3% Hispanic (old district 52/47 McCain, 88/5/4 W/B/H) — Shuler loses most of Asheville, and I think he’d have a very, very difficult time winning this.  He’d have lost by about 6 points to a no-name in 2010.

Twelfth District (Watt, Kissell, McIntyre) — 72% Obama, 27% McCain, 38% White, 43% Black, 8% Native American, 7% Hispanic (old district 71/29 Obama, 41/44/11 W/B/H) — Not too much to say here, except that this is the lynchpin of the entire plan.  It’s what makes the 8th and 7th very, very difficult to win for Democrats.

Thirteenth District (Miller) — 45% Obama, 54% McCain, 77% White, 18% Black, 3% Hispanic (old district 60/40 Obama, 60/28/9 W/B/H).  I don’t know what precinct Miller is in; he may well be drawn into the First (or could easily be drawn there).  Regardless, I have a hard time seeing him winning here, except if 2012 is a very good Democratic year.

Thoughts?