SSP Daily Digest: 2/3

CT-Sen: This is starting to sound like a broken record, but Rep. Joe Courtney is in the news again for saying that he’s still vaguely interested in getting into the Dem Senate primary. At least he has a somewhat more definite timetable, saying he’ll decide “by the end of this month.”

FL-Sen: Quinnipiac is out with its first Florida poll of the 2012 cycle, and it’s remarkably similar to the other polling they’ve been doing so far this cycle (like OH and PA): they find a surprisingly high number of people with no opinion about the incumbent Democrat, and find him polling in the mid-40s on a generic ballot question, but still winning by an OK margin. Bill Nelson’s specific numbers vs. Generic R are 41-36; his approvals are pretty good at 45/21 and his re-elect is 43/33. On a related note, Nelson has the most cash of any Dem heading into 2012, in what, if only by virtue of the state’s population, may be 2012’s most expensive Senate race; he has more than $3 million CoH.

MA-Sen, MA-04: I was a little surprised to see Barney Frank’s name even on the long list of potential candidates for the Massachusetts Senate race – he’s 70 years old and, if for some reason there’s a Democratic wave election in 2012 he could get his gavel back – so it’s not unusual to see his announcement today that he’s running for another term in the House in 2012.

MN-Sen: Courtesy of Minnesota Public Radio, here’s a long list of additional Republicans who aren’t running for Senate in Minnesota. (The list of ones who are running would be more interesting but is much shorter, since it has zero names on it, with the possible exception of Harold Shudlick, who lost the 2006 Senate nomination with a proto-teabag candidacy.) Most notably it includes former state Rep. Laura Brod (who’s apparently on the short list to become a Univ. of Minnesota Regent instead), but also state Sen. Julie Rosen, state Sen. David Hann, Hennepin Co. Sheriff Rich Stanek, attorney Ron Schutz, and Bill Guidera, who is the state party’s finance chair but is employed as “lobbyist for News Corp.”  A Roll Call article from several weeks ago buried a few other “no thanks” too: businesswoman Susan Marvin, former T-Paw CoS Charlie Weaver, and former state Rep. Paul Kohls. (H/t Brian Valco.)

MT-Sen, MT-AL: After a lot of rumors last week, it’s official as of today: Republican Senate candidate Steve Daines is dropping down to the open seat House race, where he probably becomes something of a frontrunner (rather than a speed bump for Denny Rehberg). He can transfer over the $200K he raised for his Senate race. The Fix has some additional names who might consider the House race (in addition to Democratic state Rep. Franke Wilmer, who started floating her name several days ago): businessman Neil Livingstone and state Sen. Roy Brown for the GOP, and state Sen. minority whip Kim Gillan, state Sen. Larry Jent, up-and-coming state Sen. Kendall Van Dyk (netroots candidate, anybody?), or attorney Tyler Gernant.

WI-Sen: Is this the opening salvo of the 2012 Senate race? It comes from a familiar face (one who lost the 1998 Senate general election and 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary), ex-Rep. and real estate development magnate Mark Neumann. He engaged in the traditional pre-announcement tactic of penning an op-ed attacking the incumbent, in this case Herb Kohl and his vote against HCR repeal. If so, it would set up the battle of the self-funders.

WV-Sen: The NRSC is out with its first ad of the cycle, and they’re getting right to work going after Joe Manchin, after he surprised at least some people by keeping ranks with the Dems and voting against HCR repeal. No trucker hats or plaid here… instead, they seem to be taking that “San Francisco values” (read: gay gay gay!) tack pioneered by Sam Graves in a notorious MO-06 ad in 2008, by comparing joined-at-the-hip pals Barack Obama and Joe Manchin to other legendary campy duos, like Sonny and Cher, and Siegfried and Roy.

IN-Gov: Somebody’s not waiting for Mike Pence to make his move on the Indiana governor’s race! I say “somebody” because I really have no idea who this guy is, although he’s one step up from Some Dude by virtue of having been a Hamilton County Commissioner. Jim Wallace is the first to actually say he’ll seek the Republican nomination; he’s touting his business background (as a consultant to health insurance companies).

WV-Gov: I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such a chaotically-planned election before, but now the state House and Senate in West Virginia can’t agree on what date they’re going to set for the special election to replace Joe Manchin. The House moved it up to Sep. 13, but then the Senate’s bill kept it at Oct. 4, which was the date proposed by Earl Ray Tomblin. At least they’re in agreement on the primary date, June 20. (There’s also a rundown on filings so far: the three Dems to file are the one’s you’d expect (Tomblin, Natalie Tennant, and Rick Thompson), while in addition to two expected GOPers (Betty Ireland, Mark Sorsaia), there’s also one whose name I hadn’t heard before, state Del. Patrick Lane.

FL-25: You know you’re in for a short stay in the House when the Beltway media is already compiling lists of likely successors during your first month on the job. The Fix’s list of possible Republicans who might pick up after David Rivera in the event of a resignation/expulsion includes state Sen. Anitere Flores, former state Sen. Alex Villalobos, state Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, Miami-Dade school board member Carlos Curbelo, and former state Rep. J.C. Planas.

MS-LG: With Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant the likeliest person to become Mississippi Governor in 2011, the jockeying to become Lt. Gov in 2011 (and thus probably become Governor in 2019) is underway. Republican state Treasurer Tate Reeves is the first to announce his bid.

DCCC/Crossroads: The announcement that they were targeting 19 vulnerable Republicans this early in the cycle was a good move for the DCCC, but a lot of the wind subsequently went out of their sails when it was revealed (courtesy of Nathan Gonzales) that the effort was really more of a press release backed up by tiny radio ad buys, with a total of about $10,000 spent, working out to about $500 per member (and as low as $114 in VA-05, which is a cheap market, but still…). That was met by a retaliatory buy from the Karl Rove-linked GOP dark money outfit American Crossroads, where the clearly telegraphed subtext was “You’re broke; we have money.” They spent $90,000 to air radio ads in those same markets, which at less than $5,000 per member is still chicken feed but, in terms of The Math, noticeably larger. Of course, that $114 is a pretty good return on investment, if it got Robert Hurt publicly backpedaling on just how much he wants to cut infrastructure spending.

Mayors: The Las Vegas mayoral race just took an interesting turn yesterday, when former school board president (and more notably, wife of outgoing mayor-for-life Oscar Goodman) Carol Goodman reversed course and said that she would, in fact, run for mayor. By virtue of name rec, that may catapult her to the front of the line.

Redistricting: This may be our first-ever episode of Swingnuts in the News, but Josh Goodman (now writing for Stateline) has an interview with Dave Bradlee (of Dave’s Redistricting App fame) in his new article on the rise of DIY redistricting in general. (He also briefly cites abgin’s now-legendary map of New York state.) He also points out that at least two states, Idaho and Florida, will make similar applications available online for tinkerers, as well as the Public Mapping Project’s efforts to create a more comprehensive public service.

Census: The 2010 data for Louisiana, Missisippi, New Jersey, and Virginia is out… at least in cumbersome FTP form. American FactFinder won’t have the data until later today or tomorrow. (Looks like Dave Wasserman’s already cracked open the data and has tweeted one interesting tidbit: New Orleans’ population came in 29.1% lower than 2000, and even 3.1% below the 2009 ACS estimate.

110 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 2/3”

  1. I had to hit wikipedia to remember exactly who Neumann was, loser for congress in ’92, ’93, winner is ’94 & ’96, loser for Senate in ’98 and for governor (primary this time) in ’10. That’s a 2-4 record (which would even get you fired as the football coach at a service academy).

  2. I’d be very surprised if Kendall ran, both because I think that I’d know it, and because it’d be the third office he runs for in three cycles (State House, State Senate and then US House). I think he’ll wait and gain a bit seniority in the Senate.

    Tyler Gernant is eyeing the race, but I’d be surprised if he got the nomination if he ran. His coalition 2010 were the MT blogosphere, Missoula and Party activists, and first of all those are already lining up behind Wilmer, so that there’s no place for him, and I can’t imagine he’s made many friends with completely going AWOL the day after the primary. I was an intern and did a LOT of work for Tyler in the 2010 primary and haven’t heard from him since primary day 2010, and I know that that’s true for most people who worked their asses off for him. You can tell that I’m a bit pissed off.

    Kim Gillan and Larry Jent might run, but looking at the endorsements that Rep. Wilmer is already getting, it’d have to happen quickly or Rep. Wilmer becomes the presumptive nominee. She has already lined up most the endorsements of most major women in the party.

    What we might see is a quixotic run by Melinda Gopher, who might get 30-40% in the Native reservations, but probably not much elsewhere.

  3. What a great article! OK, yes, he’s very complementary about me and my app!

    I talked to him just a couple of days ago. He asked me about maps that people had created that really stood out. And abgin’s striping of NY is right there on top. Such a great map!

    I’m working furiously to enable 2010 shapes and data. Look for Version 2.1 in a week+ and for a big announcement, too!

    Thanks to all of you who have been my been my best user group!

  4. When news broke that Caldwell was switching, there were rumors of a well known Republican official running against him and thats what made him decide to switch. Well now the site that broke the news of Caldwell’s switch is reporting Rep. Jeff Landry may be the mystery challenger. I had thought of this possibility, as it would save him from running against Boustany in 2012, but it didn’t seem likely to me so I never said anything. It would really be a free race for Landry, as he would be able to run in 2012 if he lost. If he won, it would probably be one of the shortest congressional tenures ever, as he would take office less than a year from now in January.

  5. Has anyone else had a problem with Firefox crashing right after you save on DRA? I’ve had it happen 3/6 saves on the map I’m working on now.  

  6. with American Crossroads for decades to come.  Now if only Atwater were around, both Rove he have jobs for the rest of their lives!

  7. Looks like the division of legislative services will be posting the data here:

    Interestingly, looks like the 11th is over the second most (after the 10th), and the 2nd and 3rd are under the most. I wasn’t expecting the 2nd to be that bad.

    In the House of Delegates, the 13th, 32nd, and 33rd districts (in the Loudoun/Prince William area) have enough extra people between them to create two new districts. In Hampton Roads, I expect the 87th is going to get the axe, as it’s underpopulated, and the 100th (Eastern Shore district with one precinct in Norfolk) is way under.  


    The Bay State’s senior senator is running an unofficial campaign to become the next secretary of state. For once, he looks artful, as well as ambitious.

    If Hillary were to leave after ’12 as the article speculates, it would give her time to untie herself a bit from the Obama administration.  

  9. Race goes into the gutter….as in gutter I mean the Jerry Springer kind. Jesus Christ and I thought Ramn Emanuel would be the one to do some news worthy tirades.

  10. He would be destroyed, barring something unusual. Outside of committed conservatives and those who adore his father and therefore probably wouldn’t vote for a Democrat under any circumstances, who is going to vote for him? Kentucky is a red enough state that he was able to win convincingly in a Republican year, but I don’t see any appeal, at all, to swing voters.

    But hey, why not? He’s more reasonable a candidate than Bachmann. Not a high hill to climb, of course.

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