(I’m bumping this one up. Not a single map as yet? Come on, people! – promoted by DavidNYC)
So Politico has some details about an incumbent protection map that’s supposedly been agreed to in Virginia:
Members of Virginia’s House delegation unanimously agreed to a redistricting plan that will protect all of their seats and strengthen the three GOP freshmen who ousted Democratic incumbents last November, POLITICO has learned.
The new map, according to multiple sources in both parties who are familiar with the plan, was crafted in the past month chiefly by Virginia’s eight GOP members. But it has received crucial private support from the state’s three House Democrats – notably Rep. Gerry Connolly, who barely survived reelection last November and whose Capitol Beltway-area district would get a Democratic bump.
The delegation is hoping for legislative approval in three weeks when the politically divided General Assembly convenes a special session.
So here’s the contest: Though the details are sketchy, draw what you think this map might look like using Dave’s Redistricting App. Make sure to read the entire Politico piece – most of the details are on the second page. Dave Wasserman has some ideas (here and here), but what are yours?
UPDATE: Looks like we have three entries so far: sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. Whaddya think?
Still don’t think they should have caved like this, the State Senate should still try to stop them, but they probably won’t. 8-3 in an Obama state (which he will probably win again) is outrageous.
Ugh, Creigh Deeds, you fool.
Why in the world are Democrats agreeing to this? Were they not able to go to court to get maps if they couldn’t get another seat or at least weaken one or two of the other Republicans?
The fact that a swing state like VA is going to have an 8-3 quasi permanent delegation is disgusting. Especially when you consider we are getting screwed in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania as well. At least here we have somewhat of a say.
No inside info!.
I know, I know, I should make a pit stop in Atlantic City. 😀
The contest deadline?
especially on 10 and 11.
There’s simply no way to make Scott Rigell’s district unwinnable for a Democrat, especially without further weakening VA-04.
the VA GOP had sure better let the State Senate Dems have free reign over their Senate map.
Also, I presume Wolf’s seat will still be up for grabs once he retires under this map.
I haven’t redrawn it to check the population deviations or the partisan figures. But it looks like what the geographical hints describe.
But the Republican rhetoric about that map seems absurd. I don’t think any fair observer could call that VA-02 a ten-year solid R district. Both VA-01 and VA-10 also strike me as at least plausible Democratic targets at some point in the next ten years. And on the flip side, Wasserman’s version of VA-11 is certainly a solid D district, in controvention of Davis’s quote.
is if the Obama Justice Department forces a second minority-majority district in southern Virginia.
As it is right now the State Senate Democrats have achieved a majority with a Republican drawn map. Their hold is pretty minor right now and allowing them to draw their own map will likely allow them to lock in a stronger majority. Under the current Senate map they are toast. A court drawn map is a crap shoot.
I get why the 3 Dems would like their new map but it will be a shame to only have 3 Reps in a closely divided state.
If this map comes true or close to being true there are going to be a lot of barely leaning GOP districts. Though the VADP absolutely sucks at candidate recruitment so that the GOP’s ace most likely. Other than the 6th and 9th others likely won’t be more than R+6. Whittman looks like he takes on a lot more of PWC for example. Still a tough hurdle to climb but not impossible, I am interested to see what the new 7th is. Cantor looks to have compacted a bit. What I wouldn’t give for that empty suit to lose.
I would have loved to have seen a better map and hope that this isn’t true but I can’t say that I am surprised. We better keep the State Senate now.
First observation: It’s more or less impossible to make VA-10 a McCain district without giving VA-01 and/or VA-07 a much larger chunk of Northern Virginia than either would be willing to accept. The present district runs way out into the Shenandoah area and the 2010 population distribution in the area makes that much more difficult.
The only significant addition to the politico article is that Petersburg is put in the 3rd, the 11th takes some very dem bits of Loudon, and the 7th loses some of the parts of Chesterfield county to the 4th that are most rapidly blueing (Dems would resist all of these, Reps would try to enact all, we’ll see what happens)
Quick write up below with Obama/McCain, Avg Dem/Rep, Wht/Blk/Hispanic/Asian (VAP) (numbers rounded)
1st: 48/52, 44/56, 70/16/9/3
2nd: 49/51, 46/54, 67/20/6/5
3rd: 77/23, 72/28, 35/55/5/2
4th: 48/52, 46/54, 62/31/4/2
5th: 46/54, 45/55, 75/18/3/2
6th: 44/56, 43/58, 84/10/4/2
7th: 45/55, 42/58, 74/17/4/4
8th: 67/33, 65/35, 57/11/17/12
9th: 39/61, 43/57, 91/6/2/1
10th: 49/51, 45/55, 72/6/8/12
11th: 62/38, 57/43, 52/14/16/16 (majority minority if including those under 18)
Has anyone tried to do a Virginia Congressional Map without voting rights districts. It would certainly not be an 8/3 map. One of the reasons DC is so disfunctional is that with VRA’s, it results in more hard left districts and hard right districts and those people build up seniority in their safe districts. Without VRA’s, there would be fewer extremists in both parties and more might get accomplished. Ironically, the GOP would probably unite with minority groups to fight getting rid of VRA’s. Of course, someday, when the nation is majority hispanic, will the whites then want their own VRA’s? Blacks, whites, latinos, and others will of course continue to intermarry, so what will it all come down to, using the ethnicity of our last names to determine legislative districts? It gets ridiculous and just keeps us all separate. Of course, keeping us all separate is what the elites want anyway. Let the little people fight while the top 1% controls the majority of our wealth. (I am a Democrat, just for the sake of clarity)
well, a couple of reasons:
1) there isn’t much room for creativity;
2) I’ve drawn lots of Virginia maps already, so I’m kind of Virginiaed out.
VA-01: 46.5 Obama/ 53.5 McCain, 43.6 Avg D/ 56.4 Avg R
VA-02: 48.0 Obama/ 52.0 McCain, 45.5 Avg D/ 54.5 Avg R
VA-03: 79.9 Obama/ 20.1 McCain, 74.5 Avg D/ 25.5 Avg R
VA-04: 49.1 Obama/ 50.9 McCain, 46.1 Avg D/ 53.9 Avg R
VA-05: 46.2 Obama/ 53.8 McCain, 46.2 Avg D/ 53.8 Avg R
VA-06: 43.4 Obama/ 56.6 McCain, 44.8 Avg D/ 55.2 Avg R
VA-07: 42.7 Obama/ 57.3 McCain, 40.1 Avg D/ 59.9 Avg R
VA-08: 66.6 Obama/ 33.4 McCain, 64.6 Avg D/ 33.4 Avg R
VA-09: 40.5 Obama/ 59.5 McCain, 43.8 Avg D/ 56.2 Avg R
VA-10: 49.1 Obama/ 50.9 McCain, 44.8 Avg D/ 55.2 Avg R
VA-11: 61.4 Obama/ 38.6 McCain, 56.5 Avg D/ 43.5 Avg R
Obviously the biggest change here is making VA-10 into a McCain district. Also, under this plan Eric Cantor would have the most Republican district in the state, as measured by the average D/R performances.
It is quite the chore. However, so far I’ve only had to move one incumbent from his home district and I’ve managed to create three more Dem-leaning districts while attempting to make the 22 incumbents safer (and succeeding, for the most part). I’m almost finished and I hope to post it in a day or two. Problem is, I have two 20-page papers to write in the next couple weeks and this is certainly a distraction from that.
Wasserman suggests a map that would screw Forbes if a 2nd majority-black district were created.
This would help us greatly short-term in Congressional redistricting, since the VRA seats both would have to be down south, not affecting NoVA. NoVA still would have Moran and Connolly in great shape. So we would gain a seat right away.
But would it blow up the deal to let state Senate Dems write their own map?
Ideally we’d want the remapping votes done and McDonnell signing off before the Congressional map goes to DOJ for review. Then we could have our cake and eat it, too.
I used some info Taniel Tweeted about the plans for VA-02, VA-10, and VA-11 as a rough guide. Winged it on the others.
It’s an incumbent protection map all the way. Reps. Rigell, Wolf, and Connolly are all made a bit safer here, as any compromise would do.
VA-01 (blue) – 47% Obama, 53% McCain – Rep. Rob Wittman (R)
VA-02 (green) – 49% Obama, 51% McCain – Rep. Scott Rigell (R)
VA-03 (purple) – 77% Obama, 23% McCain – Rep. Robert Scott (D)
VA-04 (red) – 48% Obama, 52% McCain – Rep. Randy Forbes (R)
VA-05 (yellow) – 44% Obama, 56% McCain – Rep. Robert Hurt (R)
VA-06 (teal) – 44% Obama, 56% McCain – Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R)
VA-07 (grey) – 45% Obama, 55% McCain – Rep. Eric Cantor (R)
VA-08 (slate blue) – 65% Obama, 35% McCain – Rep. Jim Moran (D)
VA-09 (cyan) – 40% Obama, 60% McCain – Rep. Morgan Griffith (R)
VA-10 (magenta) – 51% Obama, 49% McCain – Rep. Frank Wolf (R)
VA-11 (chartreuse) – 62% Obama, 38% McCain – Rep. Gerry Connolly (D)