SSP Daily Digest: 3/17

NM-Sen (PDF): What happens if you took a poll and no one answered? That’s what this Tulchin Research poll (taken on behalf of the Defenders of Wildlife) feels like to me, what with its sample size of just 213 likely Democratic primary voters. If you’re trying to figure out the margin of error, you’ll need to start counting on your other hand – it’s 6.7%. Anyhow, the results, such as they are: 1st CD Rep. Martin Heinrich: 32; Lt. Gov. Diane Denish: 25; 3rd CD Rep. Ben Ray Luján’s: 15; State Auditor Hector Balderas: 5; and 24% undecided. I think it’s very unlikely that the field would develop this way, but I still think these “round up the usual suspects” polls can be valuable – if they have enough respondents, that is.

OH-Sen: This kind of speculation is always seriously moronic… but hey, I live to serve. So in case you want to imagine a world where the Republican presidential nominee wins next year, and he’s picked Sen. Rob Portman as his running mate, Roll Call is happy to indulge your grim dystopian fantasy about a suddenly open Senate seat in Ohio come Jan. 20, 2013.

WV-Gov: Democratic State House Speaker Rick Thompson just earned the endorsement of two teachers’ unions:  The West Virginia Federation of Teachers and the West Virginia Education Association. The primary here for this oddly-timed special election (necessary because of ex-Gov. Joe Manchin’s Senate victory last year) is coming up very soon, May 14th.

CT-05: Kevin Rennie mentions a couple of possible Democratic prospects to replace Rep. Chris Murphy, who of course is running for Senate. One is 28-year-old pr strategist Dan Roberti, whose father Vincent was once a state rep. The other is CNBC reporter and former local news anchor Brian Schactman.

NV-02: A piece in the WaPo has 2006 and 2008 Dem nominee Jill Derby sounding pretty interested – she said she’s considering forming an exploratory committee. (Ridiculous as that sounds – I mean, she’s considering whether to consider? – that actually counts as pretty aggressive talk in this hyper-cautious age.) The story also mentions another possible name, Assemblywoman Debbie Smith, as well as noting that state Treasurer Kate Marshall (whom we flagged as another potential candidate yesterday) calling the race “absolutely winnable.”

NY-26: Republican Jane Corwin has her first ad out (NWOTSOTB), in which she repeatedly touts her supposed small business credentials but doesn’t mention that she’s a Republican. In some not-so-happy news, New York’s Green Party is saying they are likely to endorse Ian Murphy, the guy behind the fake David Koch call to WI Gov. Scott Walker, as their nominee. That means they probably won’t cross-endorse whoever winds up being the Democratic nominee… and that signals a long four years ahead of us. (Thanks to scoring 50,000 votes in last year’s gubernatorial election, the Greens get an automatic ballot spot in every race in the state through 2016.) Green Party co-chair Peter LaVenia says he doesn’t think that Murphy will “siphon votes” from the Dem… oy, christ, this is giving me nightmarish flashbacks to debates with idiotic Naderites in 2000. I can’t do this again.

Wisconsin Recall: Let’s talk about Randy Hopper. If you’ll click the link, you can hear a ridiculously misleading radio ad that he’s just gone up with. The lying isn’t the point – it’s the fact that he’s on the defensive, a place you never want to be. And he knows, it, too – which is why he’s gone out and hired Jeff Harvey, who most recently managed Rep. Dave Reichert’s (WA-08) successful campaign last year. That’s a pretty big gun to bring in to a state lege race, so how can Hopper afford something like that? Well, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald and several lackeys (including recall target Alberta Darling) were in DC last night, picking up cash at a high-dollar fundraiser held at Haley Barbour’s lobbying firm (more-or-less in exchange for gunning through that infamous bit of right-to-work legislation). The optics couldn’t be better! But cold, sweet cash can move mountains.

In related news, HuffPo’s Sam Stein tries to track down elusive information about the state of the attempted recalls of Democratic senators. It sounds like it’s going poorly: An uncoordinated mess by different groups which launched different efforts at different times. The Wisconsin Republican Party has refused to get involved, and apparently the recall has been whittled down to just three target senators (from the original eight). I would not be hugely surprised if they would up with zero.

Philly Mayor: This is pretty funny: Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter faces no real primary opposition, but he’s still trying to bounce the crazy brother of former Mayor John Street, Milton, from the ballot. Among other things, Nutter is alleging that Street doesn’t meet the residency requirements, which say that candidates have to live in the city for three years prior to the election. Where was Street? Serving a 30-month sentence in federal prison on tax evasion charges – in Kentucky.

SF Mayor: SurveyUSA has a poll out for the San Francisco mayoral race slated for this November. SF uses instant run-off voting (IRV), so SUSA asked people to pick their first, second, and third choices. Interim Mayor Ed Lee (who filled in for Gavin Newsom when he won the Lt. Gov. race last fall) says he isn’t running but actually gets the most first-choice votes. Here’s the full field:

Ed Lee, interim Mayor, 17%

Michaela Alioto-Pier, former Board of Supervisors member, 12%

Leeland Yee, State Senator, 11%

David Chiu, Board of Supervisors President, 10%

Dennis Herrera, City Attorney, 9%

Bevan Dufty, former Supervisor, 8%

Click through the link to see second and third choices.

DCCC: Steve Israel talked a bunch with the Hotline about candidate recruitment. The most interesting thing is his “alumni association” of former members of Congress who are thinking about running again. He holds “semi-regular” (Hotline’s phrase) conference calls with “the vast majority of former members.” Israel says that in recent weeks, interest and attendance has spiked, and I have to guess that recent Democratic enthusiasm inspired heavily by protests in the Midwest has been a factor. Israel also insists that ex-MoCs who have closed down their campaign accounts or taken lobbying jobs are not necessarily taking themselves out of the game; he sympathetically argues that some folks simply need the cash. Of course, optics aside, K Street might just seem a lot more comfortable than the campaign trail grind to many of these folks

DNC: The usual unnamed Democrats are telling Politico they think Ted Strickland is a “strong contender” to replace Tim Kaine at the DNC if the latter decides to run for the Senate in Virginia. I think the world of Strickland, but I’d hate to see his considerable talents get muzzled at the DNC. I just don’t think that a proud populist is going to be able to speak his mind while at the Obama DNC.

Votes: Dave Catanese has a run-down on the House members seeking (or likely to seek) statewide office and how they voted on the most recent temporary budget bill. A big swath of Republicans voted “no” (i.e., against their party), after having previously voted for the prior continuing resolution, likely out of fears of getting teabagger (because the bills don’t cut spending enough). Meanwhile, several Democrats in the same boat all voted “yes.”

WATN?: My word:

A seven-count indictment accuses Tom Ganley, a high-profile auto dealer and onetime congressional candidate, of kidnapping a 39-year-old Cleveland woman and having sexual contact with her.

Ganley, 68, faces three felony charges of gross sexual imposition, and single counts of kidnapping, abduction, solicitation, and menacing by stalking, according to Ryan Miday, a spokesman for County Prosecutor Bill Mason.

Redistricting Roundup:

Mississippi: Looks like Lt. Gov. and gubernatorial aspirant Phil Bryant is getting his ass handed to him. Bryant attempted to interfere with the state Senate’s attempt to draw a new map by instead offering his own. Bryant’s plan was rejected by the Senate (which we noted on Tuesday). Now, the Senate’s original plan has been adopted by the House. So it looks like an incumbent-protection deal has been reached, with the Democratic-held House and the Republican-controlled Senate each getting their way. But even with a Dem gerrymander, you’ve got to believe it’s only a matter of time before the House falls, too.

General: Politico has a piece discussing the GOP’s overall strategy of playing it safe with redistricting this decade, and to avoid “dummymanders” like the one in Pennsylvania which proved (at least temporarily) disastrous to the party.

126 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 3/17”

  1. It seems like they did a regular poll of 600 LV (what you’d expect for a statewide in NM) and simply asked those who identified as Democrats who’d they support in a primary. 213 is an oddly specific number, but it works out to roughly 35% of 600, which sounds about right for a party split.

    If that’s true, I wonder if they’ll have GOP primary results or general election results to report, too.

  2. The State GOP is smart to try to kill the recall petitions for the Dem senators. The LAST thing they should want is to re-fight the whole issue statewide on a “You attacked Unions” vs “You Ran Away” campaign.

    Best move for the GOP is too fight to keep the recalls from happening by challenging the petitions. If any do make it to a vote the best historical light of atack against a recall is to accuse the recall supporters of trying to circumvent or undermine the democrtic process (call it the Sore Loser strategy) or to undermine the opposition as trying to re-fight a lost vote instead of focusing on the future (The Let’s Move On strategy).

    The last thing in the world they should want is for this to be an straight up referendum on the Walker/GOP bill, that is suicide.

  3. It’s great that this is helping us fire up the interest of former House members. I doubt most of them went down for some serious flaws but rather suffered because of the wave. Also, I’d be very interested to hear how this is going for the Senate and whether the events in Wisconsin and other states are helping here. If I had to guess, I’d say no, if only because the seats in the Midwest that are up are ones that we already control, and threats against public employee unions don’t hold the same power in Tennessee or North Dakota that they do in Wisconsin or Ohio. I’d love to be proven wrong, however.

    Now, while this is probably an issue in less hospitable parts of the country, I’d still like to see Israel, and Patty Murray for that matter, develop a template that tells Democrats in tougher areas how to talk about their leadership. I seriously doubt that Pelosi had much of anything to do with losses this past November, but I can’t see the constant bashing of her tenure helping. I don’t understand why it’s so hard for someone like Bobby Bright to simply say, “I’m going to support the leadership and administration when they are right and try to convince them otherwise when I disagree. I’m a proud Democrat, but I have an independent mind…” or something like that. The exact language isn’t important, but it’s not that hard to show one’s independence from the national party while refusing to act like they are embarrassed to me a member of it. Republicans do it all the time, and they look like the more confident and stronger party because of it.

    As far as Ted Strickland goes, I don’t remember if I said it in a previous thread, but you made a lot of very good points about him and why he’d be better off in another position rather than at the DNC, DavidNYC. I now agree with you. I just wonder what such a position might entail.  

  4. So, why did Bryant want to keep cracking Hattiesburg?  Is his strategy to screw over Dems as much as possible?  Good thing the State Senate didn’t buy it.

  5. That should go over well with “good-government” independent voters. Let your unelected aides talk about gerrymandering, so elected officials who need votes can keep their mouths shut.

  6. won 242 seats in 2010 and if they ended up with 242 incumbents with similar or improved positions in those seats.  That would be safe , some might say cautious, but that’s frontrunning 101 in politics.  Take a lead, keep it secure and cross the finish line ahead.  

    Incumbents nearly always drive redistricting in a state.  The desire to protect incumbents or your plan to dump incumbents are your starting points in redistricting.  Thats why in CA or Iowa where you have the so-called nonpartisan redistricting plans the 1st step is not to protect incumbents.  Ditto for Florida’s phony non-partisan redistricting plan.

    The GOP is also thinking ten years a redistricting cycle makes.  Don’t do your map on 2010 numbers as tides ebb and flow a bit.  I tell people here all the time that democrats will not draw maps on 2008 numbers.  They have to keep in mind years like 2010 happen.  

    Back to incumbency 101.  The VA map plan will also certainly not be the last incumbent protection plan floated in 2011-2012.  There are states like KY, MN, CO, NM, NV, NY and others where party control is split.  I think over half of these states will see bipartisan incumbent protection plans.  There is a desire to advance your party’s interest but when VA or some other state enacts a party protection plan that lessens the need for your state to enact political gains for your party.  With every state that enacts a static plan like VA it decreases the chance of either party making huge redistricting gains.  So if the overall situation for 2012 looks alot like 2010 you might as well lock in your seat.  Everyone else is.  

  7. Is unlikely to pass. Its a Democratic gerrymander, and the GOP grassroots are organized against it, and placing enormous pressure on the Senate to force conference, and failing an agreement, to hold elections this fall under the current map. Then they can win the house and do what they want next year.

    The approved Senate map is a peace offering to the House, but its also a warning. There is an amendment passed saying that if both maps don’t pass neither goes into effect. The House leadership is doubling down, but like the Senate Democrats in Virginia, their position isn’t very strong. They need two Republicans to defect in the Senate.

  8. I doubt it. She did plenty of good on the Board of Regents. But for some reason, she always had trouble getting votes in Washoe. In 2008, she actually LOST Washoe, even as Obama racked up his 12% win at the top of the ticket.

    I suspect there’s a reason why the DCCC is bee-lining over to Kate Marshall’s office.

  9. have had their census data released. Maybe Rick Scott will now get those amendments approved. (Probably not, but the opposition will have a better case if he doesn’t.)

  10. ref http://publicpolicypolling.blo

    Walker’s favorability with Republicans is a +44 spread at 55/11. That makes him already more popular with the party base than Mike Huckabee (+42 at 58/16), Sarah Palin (+40 at 63/23), Mitt Romney (+21 at 47/26), and Newt Gingrich (+19 at 49/30).

    Advantages of Christie, without the handicap of being from metro NYC.

  11. a few weeks ago when we had that special election in LA that determined the state Senate majority?  Well, another Dem switched today, so that was all for nothing.

  12. I need a favor. Can someone post a working link of the Aqua Buddha ad? I can’t find it anywhere on youtube and all of the links in news stories say the video was taken down by the owner. In the meantime can someone post the text of it as well? Also can anyone give me links to links regarding negative political campaigning and effects it has on society. I know that is a big favor. Thanks in advance.

    (This is actually hoosierdem’s nephew, I’m working on a paper for school and he told me he was too busy to help but to post this here and you guys would help).  

  13. The 25 year old lobbyist mistress of Randy “Bed” Hopper, one of the WI GOP 8 facing recall, now has a cushy state job.  Senator Hopper, of course, denies any wrongdoing in the matter… purely a coincidence!

    Sen. Randy Hopper (R-Fond du Lac) told WKOW27 News he played no role in the recent hire of a state employee.

    Sources told WKOW27 News the employee is the same woman Hopper’s estranged wife,  Alysia Hopper referred to as Hopper’s mistress in a public statement and in a letter to a radio station.

    Department of Regulation and Licensing spokesperson David Carlson said the woman, 26, was hired in February as a limited term communications specialist.  

    Carlson said he had no details on whether the woman was hired to a newly-created position or a vacant, existing slot.   Carlson said he also had no details on the hiring process or the woman’s salary.

    No word if this is a union job.  The local TV news is apparently all over this.  Nothing like a sex and corruption scandal to fetch their interest!  

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