April 5 Election Results Thread #2

10:13pm: Thread trois.

10:10pm: A few more votes from Madison have trickled in, bringing KloJo back into the lead. However, the swing is still only 2.84%, less than what we need.

10:01pm: At the halfway mark now, and Prosser is now underperforming by about 3.5%. That number needs to clear 5% for KloJo to win.  The Milwaukee burbs, however, are still the laggards here, at 23% reporting.  However, the number of votes in Waukesha seems a little out of wack, as taking them at face value suggest that turnout is 8 times higher today than in the primary.

9:56pm: With 65% reporting for Milwaukee County Exec, Chris Abele is leading 61-39.  I think we can chalk this one up for Team Blue.

9:48pm: With 42% reporting now, Prosser’s assembled a 52-48 lead, or 19,000 votes.  “Outstate” – if there is one – is reporting and not being the friendliest to KloJo. Potential areas of improvement include the college towns in La Crosse/Eau Claire/Stevens Point and Madison. Despite their repugnant redness, the Milwaukee burbs are swinging 8.36% towards KloJo – more than what’s needed.

9:39pm: Back to Chicago for a second, a few incumbents lost tonight: Bernie Stone and John Rice for sure, and possibly Fredrenna Lyle in the 6th.  The Republicans might be going 0-for-50, with both would be GOPers losing, by 260 votes in the 41st and by 31 votes in the 45th. [And Sharon Denise Dixon in the 24th. No love for Rhymefest though, who loses to incumbent Wilie Cochran.]

9:29pm: Things continue to move slightly in KloJo’s favor, with Prosser doing 3.2% worse than before.  Hopefully, the trend continues.  Prosser is underperforming in all areas except Dane County – which is explained by the fact that Madison has yet to report.

9:22pm: Prosser’s doing 2.4% worse than in the primary. However, the MKE suburbs’s are only 8%…which leaves plenty of room for him to pad his lead, sadly.

9:17pm: Chris Abele continues to crush for MKE County Exec, now 61-39 with 28% in.

It’s a progressive party.


Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP


Nevada: Clark County

184 thoughts on “April 5 Election Results Thread #2”

    1. It is a lot like northern Minnesota, and the UP. Attacks on unions are not exactly an olive branch in that part of the world, and it won’t win you a lot of friends.

  1. 53-47… most of the precincts reporting.

    This is looking like its going to be VERY similar to Kerry v Bush in WI. The margins in Dane and Waukesha will decide this.

  2. Ozaukee, the Republican suburb of Milwaukee is reporting and it is not looking too good:

    Ozaukee 14/48 9,661

    74% 3,480


    Bush won 66% there in 2004

  3. Green gave Prosser 45.5%, while he got 48.3% in the first round; he dropped 2.9% according to my spreadsheet (rounding errors…). Not enough for him to lose, but luckily for Kloppenberg the swing isn’t uniform; Prosser is currently doing about 9% worse in Kenosha, for example.

    1. Just a few hours ago some people were predicting a ten point blowout based on turnout anecdotes. I feel sadly vindicated in ignoring that.  

    1. 70K votes have already been counted.

      190,000 were cast in 2010.

      And yet we’re supposedly only at 42/198 precincts.

      Probably means most of Waukesha has already reported.

  4. I thought usually the incumbent was only tossed over scandal or if there was a strong upticket move in favor of their party, like Iowa last year.

  5. Winnebago 57-43 P, 52-47 Bush

    Rock 41-59 P, 42-58 Bush

    Pierce 43-57 P, 49-51 Bush

    Iowa 39-61 P, 42-57 Bush

    Overall still a mixed bag but those rural areas seem to be leaning towards Kloppenberg.

  6. According to WISC reporter David Douglas’ Twitter feed, the Prosser campaign sees “positive signs”

    Prosser campaign says they see very “positive” signs at this point, but there is much left to come in.

    In particular they’re pleased with strong numbers in Brown County, where Prosser leads by 55% with just one precinct not in.

    Prosser camp also happy w/and watching Outagamie County, and Ozaukee County.


  7. Marquette County (54-45 Bush) is 89% in and voting for Prosser 57-43. Ironically it borders Columbia County where Klop is significantly overperforming Kerry.

    1. AP just screws up sometimes in their election result tables.

      If I had to put money on it, I’d bet that’s what’s happened here.

  8. Brown County, where Klop lost 55-45, was down more than 50% turnout-wise from 2004. Green County, where Klop won 53-47, cast about 11,000 votes this time around as opposed to 18,000-ish in 2004. So that might mean turnout is falling more in Republican areas than in Dem areas.

  9.  Is all in with a 10 point lead for Prosser.

    As for Dane County, it is

    Dane 65/248

    22,979 34% P

    43,642 66% K

    No word whether those votes are from Madison.

    As for Waukesha, 10% in and 17,000 vote lead for P. That suggests turnout there was really high or all the EVs were counted.  

  10. Sauk and Columbia counties, where Klop is overperforming, are together about the same size as Ozaukee County in suburban Milwaukee. even if Prosser finishes slightly ahead of Bush there, Klop’s overperformance might cancel out Prosser’s.

  11. 76/95 in and the margin is 56-44 Prosser vs. 54-45 Bush. I take that as a good thing, since Prosser is from Outagamie County (Appleton, though his hometown paper had bad things to say about him in their Kloppenburg endorsement.) Turnout looks to be like 1/2 of 2004.

    Overall Wisconsin, turnout looks like 1/2 of 2004 in general, the question is Madison (Dane County) and Milwaukee+suburbs, where it’s hard to tell (not enough data), but turnout there looks like it’s more like 80-100% of 2004.

  12. Ballotpedia says that in Wisconsin, there are not automatic recounts, but if the election is within 0.5% then the losing candidate can get a state-funded recount. Right now it looks quite possible that will happen.

  13. The Brown County and Outagamie County figures strike me as very similar to where the tick-tight John Kerry-George Bush race was in Wisconsin in 2004.   It all depends on whether turnout materialized in Dane County or not.  The fact that we’ve seen nothing yet from Washington County, the state’s most conservative county, is troubling.

  14. Posted in other thread but…

    Bush 67,173  55%… Kerry 54,935  45%

    Prossner 33,319  55%… Klopp 27,206 45%

    Multiply x2 would be 66,638 vs 54,412, which would be 535 for Prossner and 523 for Klopp.

    If you double the Prossner and Klopp numbers, they come out to be 535 less for Prossner than Bush, and 523 less for Klopp than Kerry.

    That’s phemonally similiar, and thus good news for Klopp.

  15. for the completed counties. These numbers are today’s vote totals as a % of ’04 totals. It doesn’t adjust for population shifts, but still worth a look.

    Bayfield (67-33 Klop): 59%

    Brown (55-45 Prosser): 49%

    Green (53-47 Klop): 59%

  16. With just two precincts left, she leads by eight there.  Walker won by 3.7 there in 2010.

  17. which precincts specifically have reported? Wisconsin SecState site?

    It’s 4:52 am here but I went to bed early, woke up and now can’t sleep. Works out because I can follow things now.

  18. Judging from the numbers in neighboring Bayfield County, that should be big for us.  A lot of Eau Claire County hanging out there still too.   I’m cautiously optimistic for a narrow good guy win.

  19. ….that’s a good sign for Eau Claire County just to its south which is much more Democratic.

  20. 56-44 Prosser, it went 54-45 for Bush, so a slight drop. 47% of 2004 vote totals. So that means we have two Dem counties which were about 60% of their 2004 totals and two Rethug counties which were just shy of 50%. So let’s not be too quick to laugh at people who predicted high Dem turnout.

  21. Winnebago County 52-48 P, 53-46 Bush. +3 for K

    Vernon County 44-56 P, 46-53 Bush. +5 for K

    Shawano County 63-37 P, 58-41 Bush. -9 for K

    Rusk County 52-48 P, 50-48 Bush. -2 for K

    Price County (bellwether!) 23/26 in, 1,213 P, 1,181 K 51-49, 48-51 Bush. -5 for K

    Overall, still mixed results in the rural areas although they seem to be leaning towards Prosser a bit. Still, no calls on this race until Madison is in.  

  22. Earlier in the day, it was reported turnout could be “as high as 35%” here That would translate into ~90,000 votes total.

    The vote numbers in AP are the same as Waukeshau County website, so I assume they aren’t off. But to reconcile both statements, we have to assume Waukeshau County is actually 90%+ in.

  23. Kloppenburg leads 185 votes (two points) in a county that Scott Walker won with 57.8% of the vote.  Two precincts remain.

  24. …..we should have the edge with some of the rural counties that have yet to report at all so far….Ashland, Crawford, Iron, and Grant should all be pretty good for Klopp.

  25. From the WisPolitics.com Election Blog:

    With 52 percent of the vote in, there have been just more than 820,000 votes tallied.

    In 2008, 830,450 votes were cast as Michael Gableman beat Justice Louis Butler.

    In 2009, 793,864 were cast as Shirley Abrahamson beat Randy Koschnick in her re-election bid.


  26. and voting 51-49 Prosser despite being a 54-45 Bush county. and this is a pretty sizable county too (Twin Cities suburbs I believe).

    Vilas county in the north is also fully in, and is a slight drop from 58-41 Bush, at 60-40 Prosser. But it was also only 50% of 2004 turnout, continuing the trend of lower turnout in Republican counties.

  27. …a crushing 62-38 with 81% reporting.

    That’s a bigger win than I think anyone expected.

    For the record, I did think Abele had a better shot than Kloppenberg, but I figured the variance would be much smaller than it’s been tonight.  Of course Kloppenberg could be performing comparably to Abele in Milwaukee County.

    As far as I’m concerned we should declare victory tonight.  Kloppenberg had a very steep climb to knock off Prosser, and even if she narrowly loses it can’t be anything better than a sigh of relief followed by continued nervousness looking ahead for the Rethugs.  Meanwhile, Abele’s big win is telling.

  28. If you want to be wowed by the motivation in certain parts of Madison, check the Dane county link


    and look for the returns from Wards 32-38.

    The city as a whole is turning out immensely for Kloppenburg, to be sure. But those wards in particular… just check it out

  29. Prosser takes the lead on the weight of that.  The good news is we finally got more than a quarter of the Washington County vote accounted vote.  It’ll be our worst county.

  30. Kerry won by 1100 votes so we would be hoping for 550… but Klopp wins by 100.  Only 382 votes total, while 2004 had 1700.  That’s totally dismal.  Tiny place, but still in a close race that 450 votes could be huge.

    Not much Native American support for state workers I guess.

  31. Same percentages as 2004, but Kerry got 40k votes, and Klopp only got 15,803… way underperforming the 50% threshold.

    75,700 Bush/Kerry

    29,600 this year

    Only about 40% of 2004.  Ugh.

  32. Most of Dane County is in while still a small number of Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha are in…and none of Fond du Lac.  Unless there are some indigo precincts left in Milwaukee, I gotta give the edge to Prosser right now.

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