April 5 Election Results Thread #6

3:18am (David): Back to Eastern time here. (Nice try, Jeff.) I think we’ve done absolutely all we can do. I don’t think we’re going to see any more votes come in tonight, so it’s time for a ganja break for the SSP crew. Tune in tomorrow!

2:02am: All of Dane County is reporting, having shown a 4.61% swing away from Prosser and turnout at 2.77x the first round. (This includes Middleton…which quite nicely gave KloJo more than a 1,000 vote margin).

1:48am: (jeffmd here. CENTRAL TIME WILL DESTROY YOU!) Here’s where we’re at: there are, per the AP, 34 precincts outstanding.  However, Dunn County has all precincts reporting on it website, and it helps KloJo close to a 356 vote deficit.  Crawford and Dane counties are completed reported.

So precinct wise, here’s what’s left:

6 in Ashland

1 in Jefferson

1 in Juneau

12 in Milwaukee

8 in Sauk

1 in Taylor

Jefferson and Taylor are telling us that their last precincts won’t be reporting until tomorrow.

Lake Mills town in Jefferson County gave Prosser 56.1% in the first round, and we’ve seen a 9.32% swing away from him tonight.

Maplehurst in Taylor County gave Prosser 42.9% of the vote in the first round, and we’ve seen a 5.4% swing towards him tonight.  Overall, I’m guessing that Jefferson and Taylor will overall be about a wash.  All the other counties listed favored KloJo tonight.

2:40am: My chart’s got more significant digits than Picasso got paint!

2:24am: New chart – KloJo won these counties by 62-38 so far tonight:
















































































































County Region Percent In Total Kloppenburg Prosser K% P%
Ashland Rest 0.785714286 22 28 2504 1037 70.71% 29.29%
Sauk Dairyland 0.794871795 31 39 7625 6166 55.29% 44.71%
Crawford Dairyland 0.925925926 25 27 2428 1689 58.97% 41.03%
Dunn Rest 0.95 38 40 4649 3790 55.09% 44.91%
Juneau Rest 0.965517241 28 29 2546 2337 52.14% 47.86%
Taylor Rest 0.966666667 29 30 2266 3602 38.62% 61.38%
Milwaukee Milwaukee 0.975308642 474 486 125090 95129 56.80% 43.20%
Jefferson Rest 0.975609756 40 41 9365 12860 42.14% 57.86%
Dane Madison 0.995967742 247 248 133513 48627 73.30% 26.70%

2:21am (DavidNYC): Prosser’s lead down to 585 votes. 34 precincts left.


Fresh new thread. (How did I get here?)

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

136 thoughts on “April 5 Election Results Thread #6”

  2. at these close elections. One lesson to take to the bank is that being ahead on election night (dawn?) is a Good Thing.

    Let’s keep counting folks!  

  4. We know there are 8,000 absentees in Milwaukee County being counted as we speak; those alone should break for Kloppenburg by enough to erase Justice Prosser’s lead. Then there’s that Dane County precinct that has yet to come in. Six precincts in Ashland County, supposedly, though they may be empty. Two more supposedly in Crawford County, which also delivered big for Klop. Eight more supposedly in Sauk County, where Klop did very well. One more in Juneau County, a swing county Klop narrowly won. And just one precinct yet to report in Jefferson County, which Prosser carried.

  5. But this seems like it should be in the bag for Klop. She needs to make up ~600 votes, so with a reported 30k outstanding, she needs 51% of the remaining vote. Out of 34 remaining precincts, only two, one each in Taylor (61-39) and Jefferson (58-42) are in Pross counties. Klop still has six precincts in Ashland (71-29), one in Dane (73-27), and more in the pipeline. Plus, Madison apparently has a few thousand absentees.

    The only big question mark is the 12 Milwaukee precincts — anyone know where those are? If at least a few of them are in the city, I think this is over; if they’re predominantly suburban, Pross could sqeuak this out.

    1. If those Milwaukee County precincts break for Justice Prosser (which would surprise me), or if those Ashland and Sauk county precincts turn out to be empty.

      Until then, I’m very cautiously optimistic.

  6. empty precincts I guess.

    No one seems to know if Milwaukee and Dane are done or not.

    I’m watching Ashland and Sauk, we might be able to make up the difference in those two alone.

    1. Lots of Abele/Prosser votes in that one… That was the surprise that killed us.  I think our GOTV team thought there would be more coattails.

    2. My understanding is that the County is usually reliable Blue territory and that Walker’s County Ex wins there was a bit of an upset. The majority of the Govt there are Dems and it looks like it reverted back to form. The reality is Walker holding the county ex post was the exception.

      I think what Prosser winning will show that the anger in Wisconsin over Walker’s moves is not as great as most people on the Left thought.

      To me this does not bode well for sucess of the recalls.

  8. I think the remaining precincts in Ashland and Sauk counties, and Milwaukee County if those precincts aren’t either empty or standing in for early/absentee votes, should push Klop over the top.

    Either way, I feel things have calmed down enough now that I’m going to go take a nice hot shower and make myself some goddamn quesadillas.

    1. is entirely meaningless without the context of what absentees–if any–are outstanding in the rest of the state. If everyone has to count their absentees, that’s bad. The conventional wisdom is that absentees almost never change the election night result.  

  10. Share photos on twitter with Twitpic

    Share photos on twitter with Twitpic

    Dems keep the supermajority in Henderson, and we may sweep 5-0 if Sam Bateman wins the June runoff! 😀

    Share photos on twitter with Twitpic

    Chris G makes it to the June runoff in Vegas!

    Share photos on twitter with Twitpic

    And guess who was spotted at Adriana Martinez’ party tonight! (Hint: Think Nevada’s top cop.)

    1. is that when absentee ballots are easy to get, they should be an important part of the canvassing process.

      Since then, I gather that absentee ballots in such states have generally favored Ds.

      If I’m reading correctly, WI voters could even request an absentee ballot by e-mail, by Mar 31.

      While I don’t know what happened on the ground in WI, I’m sure their D canvassers are competent.  

  11. seems like 32 of the 34 districts favor our team. We should end up about 2500 votes up. Hope that will survive the recount.

    1. Look at the results. Carolyn Goodman started last night at 40%, then slipped to 37% once all the votes were counted. And considering the increasing anger towards her from both the right (over unions and her as Oscar’s wife) AND the left (over the SB 283/DREAM Act brohaha, being in the pocket of corporate developers, and her as Oscar’s wife), Goodman won’t magically pick up the 13% more she needs in a flash. It certainly won’t be easy, as the big money power players look to be coalescing behind Goodman and Nevada politics is dominated by these very players, but Chris G is one of those rare folks (along with Dina Titus and a handful of others) that manages to survive, and ultimately thrive, despite them.

  16. Supposedly they’re all in the City of Cudahy. If someone wants to make projections from the primary results based on that info, go right ahead. I’m going to bed.

  17. Are there actually any people in those 12 precincts?  Otherwise, looks like Ashland and Sauk are Kloppenburg’s last chances to make up the 585 votes, the rest should be a wash.

  18. My local news station (TMJ4) reported that the remaining 12 Milwaukee precincts are indeed NOT empty. They have been counted but they have not been sent to the AP. Hope that helps.

    1. There are exceptions, like when Gregoire and Franken won on recount flips.

      But as a rule, recounts even in most of the closest races end up validating the 1st-count outcome.

      That doesn’t mean it can’t flip to Prosser, but the mistakes have to be sufficiently one-sided to make it happen, and those mistakes are no more likely to erase Klop’s lead than to double it.

  19. As someone that’s only been watching this race on the margins, in a kind of summary, could someone tell me why this was so close?  From the outside looking in, a person like myself thought this would have just been a referendum on Walker, but it appears to be much more than that.  Is it that Dems simply haven’t had enough time to organize?  What are the implications about a much larger gubernatorial recall with how this turned out?

  21. they filled in empty milwaukee counties.  Could still have those 8k votes everyone was talking about

  23. Hopefully the totals will be updated in Kloppenburg’s favor when I wake up, but assuming no outstanding precincts are empty, it’s going to come down to quite possibly a double-digit margin, by my count.

  24. There are a few thousand votes they count later. On Wednesday morning, Obama 1,647k and by the counts were certified, it was 1,674k

  25. robertcostaNRO Robert Costa

    by HotlineJosh

    A source close to Prosser tells me that the margin is “going to shrink” and that the statewide tally will likely be decided by abt 30 votes

  26. Kloppenburg 3266

    Prosser 1383

    Statewide margin down to 190 votes for Prosser with 13 precincts left.  Here’s hoping the remaining Milwaukee Co. precincts don’t screw us over too badly.

  29. Prosser 7170

    Kloppenburg 9188

    Kloppenburg takes the lead! By 369 votes with 5 precincts left.

  31. …are 8 from counties Klop won, and 2 from counties Prosser won.

    Of course, individual precincts are wildcards, county-wide doesn’t necessarily mean anything.

  32. precincts out still in:

    Dane (we think this is empty though right?)

    Crawford

    Dunn

    Jefferson

    Juneau

    Milwaukee

    Taylor

    Out of those, the only big outstanding # is from pro-Prosser Milwaukee precincts. So, Prosser should re-take the lead shortly then right?

  33. …one in Jefferson (Prosser leads county 58-42); one in Juneau (Klop 52-48); 2 in Milwaukee (Klop 57-43); and one in Taylor (Prosser 61-39).

    As of this moment, I’d rather be Kloppenberg than Prosser.

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