Tag: Washington

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29…

Official: Locke likely to head Commerce

Former Washington governor would be Obama’s third pick for post

A senior administration official says President Barack Obama’s likely pick to head up the Commerce Department is former Washington Gov. Gary Locke.

Locke will be Obama’s third pick to lead the department. Republican Sen. Judd Gregg withdrew his name from contention on Feb. 12, citing “irresolvable conflicts” over the president’s massive stimulus plan.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson dropped out of the running last month, citing the distraction of a federal investigation into the awarding of a lucrative contract in his state.

Locke served two terms as governor of Washington state.

Lets hope the THIRD time is the charm here!

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O Democrats)

About 2 weeks ago, we talked about the rising Democratic tide in The Southwest. Now, I want to discuss what’s happening in The Northwest. Believe it or not, we have plenty of opportunities up north as well.

Want to come along with me as we look at where we can win in 2010 and beyond?

Let’s start in Wyoming. While John McCain beat Barack Obama by 32%, it was an improvement over Bush’s 40% margin of victory in 2004. And believe it or not, Wyoming voters twice elected Democrat Dave Freudenthal as Governor while Democrat Gary Trauner twice lost the At-Large House seat by surprisingly narrow margins. We have an opportunity in 2010 to win both races, as Freudenthal is termed out and newly elected GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis doesn’t seem much more popular than outgoing GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin. I see both races as “Leans Republican” now, but that can change if we find good candidates.

Unlike Wyoming, Montana is rapidly trending Democratic. Bush won the state by 20% in 2004, but McCain could only muster a 3% win and Obama may be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win here in 2012. And better yet, Montana now has 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and a split legislature. But for some reason, incumbent GOP Rep. Dennis Rehberg is still in office. If we find a strong Democrat to challenge Rehberg in 2010, I think we can make this “Likely Republican” seat more competitive.

Now Idaho may not be trending Democratic as quickly as Montana, but the state is moving our way. Bush’s 39% win in 2004 was reduced to a 25% McCain win this year. And better yet, Democrat Walt Minnick scored a stunning upset win over incumbent GOP Rep. Bill Sali in ID-01. But even though Minnick won this year, we must remember that this House seat will be the top GOP seat in 2010. This race looks like a “Toss-up” now, and we’ll need to work hard to hold ID-01 while continuing to make electoral gains in Idaho.

While all the other Northwest states previously mentioned still tilt toward the GOP, Washington state is quite the different game. Barack Obama won here by 17%, a great improvement over Kerry’s narrower 7% win in 2004. Meanwhile, Democratic Governor Chris Gregoire won reelection this year while Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature, both Democratic Senators, and all 6 Democratic House Reps. look quite safe. However, we have a chance to pick up another House seat in the eastern suburban Seattle WA-08 district. Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Reichert only narrowly won reelection in 2006 & 2008 in a district that both Kerry & Obama won. If we perhaps find a candidate with legislative experience to challenge Reichert in 2010, we can finally win this “Toss-up” race.

As you can see, The Northwest is undergoing many of the same changes being seen Southwest. Wyoming and Idaho may still look strongly Republican, but Montana has rapidly become a swing state as Oregon and Washington have gone from simply leaning Democratic to strongly Democratic. As the population grows, diversifies, and changes from rural to suburban & urban, Democrats are rising to victory.

As long as demographics change and voters continue to care less about “the culture wars” and more about issues like energy, environmental preservation, and economic development, Democrats will win. That’s why our party must continue to invest in winning The West. So are you ready to win?

One happy result of our crowdsourcing presidential results-by-congressional district project is that it pointed our way to a spreadsheet put together by Benjamin Johnstone-Anderson, not an SSPer that I know of, but clearly an elections geek of the highest order. This spreadsheet covers the entire state of Washington at the precinct level (not just in split counties), and it’s designed to give results not just by congressional district, but also by municipality and legislative district.

The nice thing about this kind of spreadsheet is that it lets us do the same sort of analysis at the state level that we at SSP are fond of doing at the national level. By calculating a half-assed sort of PVI (based only on 2008 numbers) and arranging LDs from most to least Democratic, we can form a picture of who the most vulnerable legislators of each party are, much more precisely than just by looking at county-level data. (In most states you can at least look at party registration numbers to measure districts, but there’s no registration by party in Washington.) This would be a fantastic resource to have for as many states as possible, and I’d like to encourage other SSPers to perform and post the same sort of analysis for their states (if the necessary information can be found).

District	Where	2008 %	“PVI”	Sen.	Rep. 1	Rep.2
43	Univ. District	88.8/9.6	D+37	D (2010)	D	D
37	S. Seattle	86.1/12.6	D+34	D (2010)	D	D
36	Ballard	83.8/14.8	D+31	D (2010)	D	D
46	N. Seattle	82.6/15.9	D+30	D (2010)	D	D
34	W. Seattle	77.6/20.8	D+25	D (2012)	D	D
11	Renton	71.0/27.3	D+19	D (2012)	D	D
32	Shoreline	69.9/28.6	D+17	D (2010)	D	D
27	Tacoma	67.6/30.6	D+15	D (2012)	D	D
22	Olympia	64.7/33.4	D+12	D (2012)	D	D
29	Parkland	64.3/33.6	D+12	D (2010)	D	D
21	Lynnwood	64.1/34.2	D+12	D (2010)	D	D
33	Des Moines	63.6/34.7	D+11	D (2010)	D	D
48	Bellevue	63.5/35.0	D+11	D (2010)	D	D
41	Mercer I.	63.6/35.1	D+11	D (2012)	D	D
40	Mt. Vernon	62.9/35.3	D+10	D (2012)	D	D
38	Everett	61.3/36.3	D+9	D (2010)	D	D
1	Bothell	61.2/37.0	D+9	D (2012)	D	D
3	Spokane	60.0/36.9	D+8	D (2012)	D	D
45	Redmond	60.8/37.7	D+8	D (2010)	D	D
49	Vancouver	59.7/38.4	D+7	D (2012)	D	D
30	Federal Way	59.0/39.4	D+6	D (2010)	D	R
23	Bainbridge I.	58.7/39.5	D+6	D (2012)	D	D
5	Sammamish	57.5/41.1	D+5	R (2012)	R	R
19	Longview	56.6/40.9	D+4	D (2012)	D	D
24	Port Angeles	56.0/41.8	D+4	D (2012)	D	D
44	Snohomish	56.0/42.2	D+3	D (2010)	D	R
47	Auburn	55.8/42.6	D+3	D (2010)	D	D
28	Lakewood	55.6/42.8	D+3	R (2012)	D	D
42	Bellingham	53.8/44.2	D+1	R (2010)	R	D
35	Shelton	52.8/45.1	D+0	D (2010)	D	D
17	Orchards	52.0/46.3	R+1	R (2012)	D	D
39	Monroe	51.6/46.1	R+1	R (2012)	R	R
25	Puyallup	51.8/46.5	R+1	D (2012)	R	D
10	Oak Harbor	51.7/46.5	R+1	D (2012)	R	R
26	Port Orchard	51.1/46.9	R+1	D (2010)	R	D
31	Enumclaw	50.2/47.9	R+2	R (2010)	R	D
15	Sunnyside	49.7/48.4	R+3	R (2010)	R	R
6	Country Homes	49.6/48.5	R+3	D (2010)	R	D
2	Orting	47.9/50.1	R+5	R (2012)	R	R
18	Battle Ground	46.6/51.6	R+6	R (2012)	R	R
20	Centralia	45.4/52.5	R+7	R (2012)	R	R
9	Pullman	43.1/54.7	R+10	R (2012)	R	R
12	Wenatchee	42.8/55.3	R+10	R (2012)	R	R
4	Spokane Valley	42.3/55.1	R+10	R (2012)	R	R
14	Yakima	42.7/55.6	R+10	R (2012)	R	R
16	Walla Walla	38.6/59.6	R+14	R (2012)	R	D
7	Colville	38.1/58.9	R+14	R (2010)	R	R
13	Ellensburg	38.1/59.7	R+15	R (2010)	R	R
8	Kennewick	36.6/61.6	R+16	R (2010)	R	R

Analysis over the flip…

We can see that only about one-third of these districts are what you’d think of as being competitive (let’s say a “PVI” between D+5 and R+5)… and there are almost no legislators of the wrong party in uncompetitive seats. There’s only one Republican representative in a seat better than D+5, and one Democratic representative in a seat worse than R+5. This points to a big built-in structural advantage for Democrats in Washington; there are 23 (out of 49) districts greater than D+5, so they barely need to rely on swing territory at all to maintain control of the legislature.

The good news is, as much as the Democrats are in a position of strength in the legislature (near the 2/3s mark in each chamber), there’s still room to expand and not much defense to play. There are 7 Republican senators (out of 49) and 14 Republican representatives (out of 98) in districts won by Obama, while there are no Democratic senators and 1 Democratic representative in districts won by McCain.

In fact, the one Democratic senator who lost in 2008, Marilyn Rasmussen in the 2nd LD, would have been the only Democratic senator in a McCain district had she not lost in an upset. The top-of-the-ticket data goes a long way to explaining her loss; the 2nd is an growing exurban area in rural Pierce County with a lot of growth, so there’s an influx of new voters unfamiliar with Rasmussen’s long tenure in the district and thus not likely to ticket-split. This is also the same part of WA-08 that, both times, basically gave Dave Reichert his victory margin over Darcy Burner, and it seems to be one of the only areas in the state that is going in the wrong direction.

Unfortunately, the Democrats missed the opportunity in 2008 to take out the two most vulnerable GOP senators according to this table, Cheryl Pflug in the 5th and Mike Carrell in the 28th; they’re safe till 2012. (They also lost what was considered to be the most hotly contested senate race, a little further down the table. Don Benton in the 17th survived by only a few hundred votes.)

The most theoretically vulnerable GOP senator up in 2010 is Dale Brandland in the Bellingham-based 42nd; however in practice, two other senators slightly lower on the list, Pam Roach in the 31st and Jim Honeyford in the 15th, are likelier to be vulnerable (Honeyford because he represents Washington’s second-least-white district, with fast-growing Latino and Native populations but a mostly Anglo electorate, meaning that victory is possible with a larger minority turnout… and Roach simply because her sheer Jean Schmidt-style odiousness makes her a perpetual target).

Democrats will also be defending two senate freshmen in 2010 in districts that have an R+ PVI (although that Obama won): Derek Kilmer in the 26th and Chris Marr in the 6th. These are the two districts where the GOP picked up Democratic-held open House seats, so these races will bear watching.

The above-mentioned 5th may also be the best place to pick off some GOP representatives: Jay Rodne and Glenn Anderson. (One rep, Skip Priest in the 30th in the blue-collar suburbs of Federal Way, clocks in higher, but he’s pretty well-entrenched and certainly the most moderate Republican left in the House.) I’m wondering why the 5th (the furthest-out reaches of the affluent Eastside suburbs plus rural eastern King County) has never been heavily targeted; without seeing 2004 data, my guess is that it’s never voted anywhere near this heavily Democratic before. Even the nearby 41st and 48th had a mostly Republican legislative bench until a few years ago and probably didn’t go for Gore or Kerry by 25-point margins; this just seems to be the last district on the Eastside to fall into the Democratic column. We just need to show up to compete, preferably with some good candidates (like a certain netroots heroine with kickass fundraising skills?).

In the 2008 election, the Dems lost one Senate seat to drop back to a 31-18 lead. In the House, the Dems flipped two seats and the GOP flipped three, so the composition moved to a 62-36 edge and GOP each flipped two seats, for a wash, so the composition stayed at 63-35 edge. Dems need to gain 2 seats in the Senate and 4 3 in the House to make it over the magic 2/3s mark (although hopefully they won’t need to override Chris Gregoire on anything, but she won’t be around forever). Doable? Tough, but possibly so.

The 2008 gubernatorial races were never meant to be the cycle’s most suspenseful contests, but my March ratings found that the top four races had gotten unexpectedly more competitive, with three making their way to the toss-up rating. Yet, things have quieted down over the past few months. For one, heated Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina were resolved and it will take some time before the general election in these states reaches full speed. Meanwhile, Missouri’s Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon is expanding his lead over his two potential opponents in what is looking like it could be a runaway race.

As a result, only one contest remains a toss-up in this month’s ratings — but what a toss-up it is! Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory’s victory in the GOP primary guarantees that North Carolina will host three crucial and competitive statewide elections this fall: Obama’s success at putting the state in play will determine whether he can hope to win a landslide election, the Hagan-Dole race is key for Democratic hopes to reach a 60 seat majority (the seat is at the top of the second-tier of Senate races which were not supposed to be endangered and its loss could open the floodgates of a blue tsunami) and the GOP will try to score its fourth gubernatorial victory since the 19th century. And remember that this is the state that sunk Hillary Clinton’s presidential ambition: North Carolina will have played quite a role in 2008.

The previous gubernatorial ratings, written in March, are available here. For descriptions of the races that have no description here and that are rated “Safe”, check the first gubernatorial ratings, written back in September.

Lean take-over (1 R)

1. Missouri (Open; Previous rating: Toss-up)

The contested Republican primary will not be resolved until August 5th. Rep. Kenny Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman are running to become their party’s nominee, and the former looks to have lined up much of the party’s establishment behind him. But the result of their contest might not matter much as Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon has been campaigning for four years now. This cycle’s Democratic environment might be too much for his opponents to overcome, and Nixon has opened up a huge lead against either of his opponents in the latest polls. Democrats hope that this election will be a repeat of Colorado’s 2006 gubernatorial race and Minnesota’s 2006 senatorial race, both open races that were supposed to remain competitive but in which the Democratic candidate rode  the GOP malaise to an early lead and never relinquished it.

Toss-up (1R, 1D)

2. North Carolina (Open; Previous rating: Toss-up)

Both parties settled contested primaries on May 6th. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue survived a strong challenge by state Treasurer Richard Moore, who aired negative ads in the closing weeks of the campaign. On the Republican side, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory prevailed in a primary that was less nasty — and this is the sort of difference that can impact a general election. Since the primary, both candidates have been gearing up for the general election… and McCrory has received the help of George Bush who joined his party’s candidate for a fundraiser in Raleigh. No joint photograph of the two men was authorized, but the state Democratic party is already hitting McCrory for his ties to Bush, highlighting the dismal state of the Republican brand, even in a Southern state.

McCrory is a much stronger contender than Republicans were hoping to get just a few months ago, and this race looks to be the most suspenseful gubernatorial contest of the cycle (which isn’t saying a lot). Early polls suggest that neither candidate has the advantage but that McCrory might be able to peel away the support of independent-minded voters and conservative Democrats who have been critical to a string of state-level Democratic successes. In fact, how competitive the presidential election becomes could impact the result of the Perdue-McCrory contest. If there is a boost in black turnout as some are predicting, it would make it difficult for Republicans to pick up the governor’s mansion.

Lean Retention (1 D)

3. Indiana (Gov. Daniels; Previous rating: Toss-up)

The Democratic primary between Jill Long Thompson and architect Schellinger (favored by the state’s establishment) was even tighter than the state’s crucial Clinton-Obama contest, with results delayed by Lake County and Long Thompson triumphing by 0.6%. Now in a quest to become the state’s first female governor, Long Thompson first has to ensure financial viability. While polls showed no electability difference between the two Democrats, Schellinger was more successful at fundraising. Seeking to attract some attention in a dull campaign period, Long Thompson announced her running-mate and she benefited from glowing headlines after her speech at the state convention for “making history’ as the first female candidate.

Yet, three polls taken in the past two months find Daniels settling in a narrow but consistent lead — leading me to downgrade the race to lean retention for the first time. But the race remains competitive: however much Daniels has improved his popularity over the past two years, he remains very vulnerable and Obama’s decision to invest resources in Indiana will help Long Thompson get out the vote.

4. Washington (Gov. Gregoire; Previous rating: Lean retention)

In a neutral environment, this race would be the ultimate toss-up. The rematch of a 2004 race which ended in grotesque cacophony, Dino Rossi’s challenge to Gregoire is hurt by the year’s pro-Democratic bent. News that Rossi is shying away from his party label reveals the disadvantage he has to overcome. New election rules allow candidates to choose what party label will appear next to their name, and Rossi chose “GOP party” rather than “Republican” (note that the Republican candidate for insurance commissioner is running with no party label at all). However, polls find that the race remains very tight and there is every indication that it will be very nasty as well: A recent controversy over whether Democrats were playing the “Italian card” against Rossi by using the Soprano music in an ad against him confirms that there is little chance that the 2004 bitterness can be overcome.

Full rankings of all 11 races on my governor’s page.

In 1976, Democrats followed an historic congressional victory with a firm trifecta.  Not only did Jimmy Carter win the White House but Democrats controlled the House by a 292-143 margin and the Senate by a 61-38-1 edge.  The victory was done well before it “required” 60 Senate votes to move everyday legislation.  This was a working majority fully equivalent to the early days of FDR (1933-39) and the one golden term of LBJ (1965-67) but in retrospect little or nothing got done.  Why?

The most obvious answer was the “war” between Tip O’Neill and Jimmy Carter.  Carter ran against Washington and nobody represented Washington and its ways more than O’Neill.  Rather than working with O’Neill at the outset, Carter made the unusual move of trying to take him on.  As Tip said to Jimmy, we elected 289 members running against Nixon and we can elect 289 members running against you.  Democrats in Congress were used to batling against an imperial Presidency.  Carter may have looked non-threatening to many but to Congress he was a direct challenge.  Congress, as an institution, won.  (Cultural differences between the Irish Catholic and the waspy Protestant/ born again sure didn’t help either).

Carter went to war on procedural issues and items that sounded big to him but didn’t really matter to the public.  Civil service reform and cutting government spending by eliminating a carrier and a mere $2 billion in public works were really arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  We were facing an obvious energy crisis and with a solid majority what happened?  Nothing.  The one big move made by the feds was by Jerry Ford: raising the mileage required from US car makers for future models.  Carter could have made long term changes that would have pretty much solved the problem by 30 years later.  He didn’t even though the public was ready for it and best sellers of the time like the conventional wisdom “Energy Future” assumed solar would be as much as 20% of energy by now.

So what are the lessons?  A Republican can get change by running against washington.  A Democrat needs to work with Washington to implement a specific set of policy prescriptions.  Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid or their successors need to be the President’s best friends and not cultural and political enemies.

Institutional changes in areas like civil service, contracting, earmarks, etc. are an expensive and needless distraction.  Health care, energy, the environment, and civillian control of the military matter.  Social Security and Medicare and labor laws meant a lot to a lot of people.  Do you really think reforming ear marks will have the same bang?  And it could potentially piss off a lot of legislators.  Funny how Republican pork was OK and now Democrats are supposed to get rid of it all.

Many successful administrations have come in with a generation full of wish lists and enacted a lot of them into law.  Lincoln, for example, was about a lot of things besides the civil war and slavery.  The Homestead Act, the Land Grant colleges, and the transcontinental railroad all got the go ahead under Honest Abe.  The value of this approach is that these items come pre-sold to the public and are less likely to be swept away by a vague Harry and Louise PR campaign. FDR’s plans, at least many of them, had been tested at the state level.  Clinton’s ambitious health plan, otoh, was invented and had to be sold.  Congress insisted  on this and so we got a lot of ads and no progress.

Where are we headed?  Towards a pre-packaged success or towards institutional “reform.”   Give me the LBJ/FDR/Lincoln blitz any time.  

Former state Sen. Dino Rossi, the eventual 133-vote loser in the highly contentious 2004 gubernatorial election in Washington state, is gearing up for a rematch against Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire.  Rossi will make his bid official on Thursday.

There’s no doubt that Rossi will be a serious foe against Gregoire.  Rossi seemed to benefit from favorable media coverage during the bitter re-count period in 2004, as evidenced by this poll showing that voters felt that he was robbed of the office and that he’d easily have won a hypothetical re-vote in late January, 2005.

Still, Gregoire seems to have had a largely uncontroversial first term, and the trendline of her approvals is respectable.

This will be a hard-fought race by the GOP — possibly their only real offensive opportunity to pick off an incumbent Democratic governor next year.  But I’d be willing to bet that Gregoire has the early, if only slight, edge.