Tag: Washington

Earlier this year I posted a diary creating a 10 district Washington State. With the update to Dave’s Redistricting, I thought I would update my proposed redistricting map of Washington.

Washington has a bipartisan commission for redistricting, so at best the map is going to strive for balance or the creation of swing districts.

In this map, I make a return to the delegation maps of the 1960s, where the 2nd Congressional district connected Whatcom County along the Canadian border with Clallam County along the Pacific Ocean. (Actually, that district contained all or portions of Clallam, Island, Jefferson, King, San Juan, Skagit, and Snohomish Counties). Also in this map, the new 10th CD is an Tacoma (Pierce County) based district while the 3rd CD connects Bremerton with the Pacific Coast. Should this map be adopted, I would think that the delegation would be 7-3, and possibly 9-1 in a strong Democratic year if and as the cities Spokane and Yakama trend towards Democratic candidates.

CD 1 – Inslee (D – Bambridge Island) or open

White – 82%
Asian – 3%
Hispanic – 5%

As I wrote in the introduction, the 1st CD connects Whatcom County in the north with Jefferson County along the Olympic Peninsula. The district is connected via the Keystone to Port Townsend ferry. The district also includes the northern half of Kitsap County (Kingston and Bambridge Island), extending to the southern edge of Bremerton.

The district will be a swing (at worse) district that leans Democratic. Of the counties in the new district, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Whatcom county voted for Patty Murray, while Clallam still gave her 46%. While Rick Larsen won a squeaker in 2010, most of the Republican leaning area of his district (East Snohomish County) is now in the 2nd CD.

CD 2 – Larsen (D – Lake Stevens)

White – 83%
Asian – 6%
Hispanic – 5%

The 2nd is now entirely in Snohomish County. The only City not in the CD is Stanwood.

The district should be a sold Democratic district. There are 4 Democrats on the Snohomish County Council and 1 Republican. A portion of the Republican district is not in the 2nd CD, while the districts of the remaining 4 Democrats are in. Still, there is a potential for an upset in a bad year, but Patty Murray did win 51% of the vote in Snohomish County.

CD 3 – Norm Dicks (D – Bremerton)

White – 85%
Asian – 3%
Hispanic – 5%

The 3rd CD connects Bremerton in Kitsap County to Longview and Kelso in Cowlitz County. The district includes Olympia and Centralia and Chehalis in Lewis County (the district splits Lewis and Cowlitz counties [mostly down 1-5]). The district also includes Gig Harbor in Pierce County.

With Olympia and Bremerton, and as well as the Democratic lean along the Pacific Ocean (Murray won in Pacific, Gray’s Harbor, and Thurston counties), the district should remain a Democratic one.

CD 4 – Jamie Herrara (R – Camas)

White – 79%
Hispanic – 13%

The 4th CD is a Columbia River district and extends north to the City of Yakama.

For the near term, this would be a Republican district. Over time, it is possible that the City of Yakama returns to its Democratic roots (the area did elect Jay Inslee in 1992) and with Vancouver, become a Democratic-performing district.

CD 5 – Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R – Spokane)

White – 83%
Hispanic – 10%

It may not be possible to elect a Democrat east of the Cascades, but combining the Tri-Cities with Spokane may be the only way to do so. The district includes the cities of Spokane and Spokane Valley in Spokane County, but nothing to the west or north.

The district does have the advantage of placing Representative Hastings (Pasco) and McMorris-Rodgers into the same district (but I would not expect them to run against each other).

CD 6 – Open or Doc Hastings (R – Pasco)

White – 79%
Hispanic – 15%

This 6th CD takes in all of the rest of Eastern Washington not in the 4th or 5th and supplements that population with a small portion of Eastern Pierce County. This is a solid Republican precinct.

CD 7 – Jim McDermott (D – Seattle)

White – 68%
African American – 8%
Asian – 13%
Hispanic – 6%

This is the City of Seattle and Vashon Island. Not much to say here (except this would be one area where having city boundaries on v.2.0 would be especially nice).

CD 8 – open

White – 82%
Asian – 9%
Hispanic – 4%

This district is the district that any of the challengers to Dave Reichert would have wanted. In the north, all of the northern King County cities (and reliably Democratic) (Shoreline, Lake Forest Park, Kenmore, Kirkland, Redmond), combine with Bellevue to balance the Republican portion of east King County.

CD 9 – Dave Reichert (R – Auburn)

White – 71%
African American – 6%
Asian – 10%
Hispanic – 7%

The 9th CD retains most of its current form, extending north to Renton and east to Auburn, while it loses most of its portion of Pierce County. What remains is all (or most of the south end of King County – a distinct region in King County politics).

This swing district that never really swung, becomes a more solidly Democratic district.

CD 10 – Adam Smith (D – Tacoma)

White – 73%
African American – 8%
Asian – 7%
Hispanic – 6%

The district includes Tacoma and portions of South and East Pierce County.

Pierce County is a swing County, but the Republican portions of Pierce County are not in this CD. The 6th CD has lots of east Pierce, and the 9th has a chunk of north-central Pierce County. A Democrat should retain this seat.

At the end of the day this map is compact, yet would probably yield a 7-3 Democratic split in the delegation most years. If there was another Republican wave, potentially 2 more Democrats could be endangered – in a Democratic wave, 2 Republicans would be endangered.

 You may remember all the baseline diaries I used to post here. Now that election day is only two days away, I have combined all my baseline diaries together so you can look at them while watching the returns come in. I did this with the Washington Primary in August and I thought it worked well. This diary goes on for awhile.

If swing state project has to crash on Nov. 2nd (God forbid,) you can still see my baseline diaries by going to my blog: http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

California Gubernatorial race baselines combining results from 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election:

Dark Red: Whitman 70%+

Red: Whitman 56%-69%

Light Red: Whitman 50%-55%

Light Blue: Brown 50%-55%

Blue: Brown 56%-69%

Dark Blue: Brown 70%+

Regional breakdowns:

Bay Area:

Now for the Maryland Gubernatorial race which recently is going toward Martin O’Malley (D). It combines the results of the 2008 Presidential election with the 2006 Gubernatorial election results.

Dark Red=Ehlrich 70%+

Red=Ehlrich 60%-69%

Light Red=Ehlrich 50%-69%

Blue=O’Malley 60%-69%

Dark Blue= O’Malley 70%+

For a clearer map: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…



County name O’Malley Ehlrich Other

Alleghany 32% 67% 1%

Anne Arundel 38% 61% 1%

Baltimore County 46% 53% 1%

Balitmore City 73% 26% 1%

Calvert 36% 63% 1%

Caroline 27% 72% 1%

Carrol 23% 76% 1%

Cecil 34% 65% 1%

Charles 49% 50% 1%

Dorcester 33% 66% 1%

Frederick 36% 63% 1%

Garrett 22% 77% 1%

Harford 30% 69% 1%

Howard 48% 51% 1%

Kent 39% 60% 1%

Montgomery 60% 39% 1%

Prince George’s 76% 23% 1%

Queen Anne’s 26% 73% 1%

Somerset 36% 63% 1%

St. Mary’s 33% 66% 1%

Talbot 32% 67% 1%

Washington 32% 67% 1%

Wicomico 34% 65% 1%

Worcester 30% 69% 1%

Now for the Oregon Gubernatorial race with a combination of the 2008 Presidential election and the 1998 Gubernatorial race with John Kitzhaber.

Dark Blue: Kitzhaber 50%+

Blue: Kitzhaber 50%-59%

Light Red: Dudley 50%-59%

Red: Dudley 60%-69%

Dark Red: Dudley 70%+

A clearer map: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…



Counties Kitzhaber Dudley

Baker 32% 68%

Benton 57% 43%

Clackamas 48% 52%

Clatsop 54% 46%

Columbia 50% 50%

Coos 43% 57%

Crook 32% 68%

Curry 39% 61%

Deschutes 42% 58%

Douglas 36% 64%

Gilliam 43% 57%

Grant 27% 73%

Harney 26% 74%

Hood River 55% 45%

Jackson 44% 56%

Jefferson 42% 58%

Josephine 35% 65%

Klamath 29% 71%

Lake 26% 74%

Lane 56% 44%

Lincoln 54% 46%

Linn 40% 60%

Malheur 25% 75%

Marion 46% 54%

Morrow 40% 60%

Multnomah 66% 34%

Polk 45% 55%

Sherman 40% 60%

Tillamook 51% 49%

Umatilla 40% 60%

Union 38% 62%

Wallowa 33% 67%

Wasco 50% 50%

Washington 52% 48%

Wheeler 34% 66%

Yamhill 44% 56%

Now for Washington Senate combining results from the 2008 Presidential election, 2004 Senatorial race and 2004 Gubernatorial race.

Dark Red: Rossi 65% +

Red: Rossi 55%-64%

Light Red: Rossi 50%-54%

Light Blue: Murray 50%-54%

Blue: Murray 55%-64%

Dark Blue: Murray 65%+

Here is a better quality map of Washington: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…

List of counties:

County Names Murray Rossi Percentages

Adams 853 2,305 27%-73%

Asotin 2,416 3,941 38%-62%

Benton 14,301 33,369 30%-70%

Chelan 7,568 13,337 36%-64%

Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%

Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%

Columbia 415 1,052 28%-72%

Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%

Douglas 3,178 6,754 32%-68%

Ferry 848 1,450 37%-63%

Franklin 4,027 8,839 31%-69%

Garfield 237 655 27%-73%

Grant 5,226 12,735 29%-71%

Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%

Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%

Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%

King 366,136 236,061 61%-39%

Kitsap 39,653 41,604 49%-51%

Kittitas 4,545 7,140 39%-61%

Klickitat 2,821 3,785 43%-57%

Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%

Lincoln 1,152 2,753 30%-70%

Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%

Okanogan 4,173 6,879 38%-62%

Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%

Pend Oreille 1,640 2,653 38%-62%

Pierce 103,807 111,561 48%-52%

San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%

Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%

Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%

Snohomish 104,923 104,505 50%-50%

Spokane 61,628 82,026 43%-57%

Stevens 4,904 9,780 33%-67%

Thurston 44,051 38,752 53%-47%

Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%

Walla Walla 5,805 10,365 36%-64%

Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%

Whitman 4,984 6,448 44%-56%

Yakima 17,919 31,310 36%-64%

Total 991,680 991,752 50%-50%

Here is how the baselines break down regionally:

Seattle & Vicinity

Counties   Murray Rossi

King 366,136  236,061 61%-39%

Snohomish 104,923  104,505 50%-50%

Pierce 103,807  111,561 48%-52%

Kitsap 39,653  41,604 49%-51%

Thurston 44,051  38,752 53%-47%

Total 658,570  532,483 55%-45%

Coastal Washington Murray Rossi

Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%

Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%

San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%

Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%

Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%

Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%

Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%

Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%

Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%

Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%

Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%

Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%

Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%

Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%

Total 184,470 211,693 47%-53%

Rest of the State

           Murray Rossi

Total 148,640 247,576 38%-62%

With the news that Washington state may receive a 10th Congressional District, I set out to develop a map that is favorable to Democrats and should lead to a 7-3 delegation split in bad years, and up to an 8-1 split in good years.

Washington has a bipartisan redistricting commission, so massive gerrymanders are off the table. When Washington received a 9th CD, the commission attempted to make the 9th competitive – I expect the same to happen with a 10th CD.

Anyway, this map creates a super-strong Republican seat east of the Cascades, and generally puts each major city in the Western portion of the state in its own district and connects that city with more rural portions of Western and Central Washington. (BTW, partisan data would be helpful here).

WA 1 (Inslee [open]-D) [Blue]

WA 1 still extends across Puget Sound to Kitsap County, but loses Bambridge Island and some Seattle precincts and extends to the eastern most portions of Snohomish County. The Kitsap portion of the District, as well as the western Snohomish portion should keep this District a safe Democratic one.

WA 2 (Larson D) [Green]

WA 2 retains much of its current form – Northwestern Washington. Like it does now, the district extends into Everett. If Larson holds on this year, the District should remain a Democratic hold.

WA 3 (open D) [purple]

WA 3 runs along the Columbia River and the Pacific Ocean. Inland it includes solidly Lewis County. In many years, this would be a Democratic seat, but control depends on who wins Clark County (and the City of Vancouver).

The coastal counties are more Democratic, and Skamania and Klicikat Counties did vote for Obama in 2008. In 2010 and 2012 this might be a tough hold, but as Vancouver becomes more solidly Democratic, so should the entire CD.

WA 4 (Hastings – R) [Red]

This district encompasses most of Eastern Washington – or at least Yakama and most of the low population counties east of the Cascades. Currently, both WA 4 and WA 5 are about 40-45% Democratic – this district would probably push that number to about 35%.

WA 5 (McMorris-Rogers – R) [Yellow]

While it may not be possible to create a safe Democratic district in Eastern Washington, connecting the Tri-Cities to Spokane may do the trick (to at least elect a Democrat – or make it a swing district). Whitman County voted for Obama and Spokane has two Democratic Senators in Olympia.

WA 6 (Dicks-D) [Teal]

WA 6 connects Olypmia to Kitsap County and extends to the Pacific Ocean. All of these counties are fairly reliable Democratic counties. Fairly in the sense that King, Snohomish, and sometimes Pierce Counties lead the way on Democratic issues in the state.

WA 7 (McDermott – D) [Grey]

Seattle.

WA 8 (Reichert – R) [Lavender]

WA 8 is strongly contested in 2010 by Suzan DelBene. Likely, the 2010 election will depend on how well she does in Pierce County.

To solidify the district, I chose to add several Democratic areas to the district – Renton and Kirkland. To add population to the district, I added the central Washington counties of Chelan and Kittitas. This is an area where I would like more partisan details, but both counties have voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the past.

WA 9 (Smith – D) [Bright Blue]

WA 9 was originally designed as a swing district twenty years ago – but has only been held by a Republican for only 2 years (1995-1997). For this map, it should stay a Democratic seat.

The district goes from the Seattle border to Puyallup and from Puget Sound to east King County.

WA 10 (open) [Magenta]

This new district is a Pierce County district. It includes Tacoma and Gig Harbor – and then races out to eastern Pierce county. This district should be competitive – or leaning Democratic in the worst years.

**Sorry for the quick write-up (I published the Diary before I was ready). Each district is + or – 744 from the ideal population size.

Hey folks,

I wanted to let you all know that Senator Patty Murray will be doing a Live Chat with Blue America over at Crooks and Liars from 5-6pm PST this evening.

For eighteen years, Patty has been a leader on progressive issues. Her opponent, perennial candidate Dino Rossi, has been attacking her constantly on TV with the help of shadowy special interest groups aligned with Karl Rove.

Ballots arrive in Washington's mailboxes in one week – and we need your help to keep Patty in the Senate and send the special interests packing!

Feel free to stop by and ask Patty a question or leave a comment – and if you're able to support our campaign as well, we'd really appreciate it!

Hope to see you there!

Doug Foote
New Media Director
People for Patty Murray

 

2:07am: Well, things have pretty much ground to a halt in Washington, so we’ll probably just leave it for here for the night. Currently 60% are reporting in WA-Sen (with Murray at 46, Rossi at 34, and Didier at 12), but bear in mind that ballots are going to keep straggling in over the next few days (since they can be postmarked today). Only half of King County is reporting, for instance. At any rate, I did some rough extrapolation and it doesn’t look like the final needle will budge much: I’m projecting Murray 47, Rossi 33, Didier 11.

1:28am: We’ve gotten some more Santa Cruz Co. precincts reporting (now that they’ve stopped playing Jenga). That takes us up to 59% reporting, but with 91% of votes in by our figuring. It’s 49-43 for the GOP’s Blakeslee, and that’s still what we’re projecting as the final result in California.

1:03am: The AP has called Jaime Herrera for the 2nd spot in WA-03. She’s at 27, to Heck’s 32. That’s with 71% reporting. (In case you cared, they also called Jim Watkins as Jay Inslee’s opponent in WA-01. Inslee is at 57, Watkins at 26.)

1:01am: There’s 39% reporting in CA-SD15. But by our calculations, 87% of the votes have been counted, and we’re still on track for a 49-43 finale.

12:53am: Wow, it looks like we might go into overtime in Wyoming after all. We’ve hit 486 of 486, and Mead’s lead over Meyer fell to 714 votes (30,272 to 29,558). That’s less than a 1% margin (28.7%-28.1%), so Mead isn’t clear anymore. So, naturally, no AP call yet.

12:48am: Well, we’ve added 4 more precincts in WY-Gov, taking us up to 481/486. They don’t seem to have been much help for Rita Meyer, as she still trails Matt Mead by 1,250 votes. The automatic recount line is a 1% margin (again, thanks to Aaron Blake), and Mead’s edge over Meyer is currently 28.9%-27.6%, so he’s clear of the zone.

12:39am: Still no new reports in CA-SD15. We’d like to remind the good folks of Santa Cruz County that Proposition 19 hasn’t passed yet!

12:31am: One other small piece of bad news, although this is pretty down-in-the-weeds for Washington. Jim Johnson won another term on the state Supreme Court, beating Stan Rumbaugh 63-37 (for some technical reason that I don’t know, probably because it’s a nonpartisan office and there were only 2 contestants, this race is decided tonight). Johnson is the lone across-the-boards conservative on SCOWa. (The rest of you are probably now saying “You only have one conservative on your Supreme Court?!?”)

12:29am: We’re estimating 86% of the vote is in in CA SD-15. It’s still listed at 49-43 Blakeslee, and that’s what we’re still projecting in the end, too. Worth noting: the final numbers last time were 49-42, so, apparently, nobody changed their mind over the last month.

12:24am: We’re up to 56% reporting in WA-Sen. The latest report includes all of Benton Co. in eastern Washington (Didier’s home turf), so there’s a small Didier surge and Murray erosion: Murray 46, Rossi 34, Didier 12 now. Half of King is still outstanding, though, so look for Murray to push upward again.

12:20am: If you’re looking for something interesting to watch in Washington, try the GOP side in WA-09, where there’s a good establishment/teabagger duel for the right to face the probably safe Adam Smith. Currently, Pierce Co. Commissioner Dick Muri (a pretty good get in terms of his office, but a zero on the fundraising front) leads 2008 challenger Jim Postma 24-19 (with Smith at 53).

12:18am: Cue up inevitable lamestream media narrative of OMG! Mama Grizzly fail!!1! Is Sarah Palin losing her touch? (With probably no mention of G.H.W. Bush’s support of 4th place Colin Simpson.)

12:15am: Just like that, Campbell Co. in Wyoming reports. Mead won 31-23 there over Meyer, so that pads his lead a bit. Statewide, it’s Mead 29, Meyer 28, Micheli 27, Simpson 16 (with Mead’s lead over Meyer at 1,300 votes). That’s with 477 of 486 precincts total reporting, so I think this is pretty much over and done, in favor of Mead. (But no AP call yet.)

12:13am: The AP has declared victors in WA-08, as Suzan DelBene has gained some ground, though it’s still not a convincing win. It’s Reichert 48, DelBene 27. Also, they’ve called WA-02 for Rick Larsen and John Koster. It’s actually pretty close, at 44-41 for Larsen, but there’s also 10% going to random other Dems.

12:11am: The AP has partially called WA-03. They’ve given a check mark to Denny Heck (at 31), and presumably Jaime Herrera (at 27) will get one soon. Still 65% reporting.

12:09am: We’re up to 89% reporting in Wyoming, rattling toward a conclusion, and Mead is pulling a smidge ahead of Meyer. He’s up 29-28 over Meyer, by 750 votes. Nothing from Campbell Co. has reported yet, but it’s worth noting that neighboring county Johnson Co. went for Mead, 37-30 over Meyer.

12:07am: Wow, here’s a fun fact I just learned (thanks to Aaron Blake’s Twitter feed). Pete Gosar, the guy who just lost the WY-Gov D primary, is the brother of rogue dentist Paul Gosar, the guy who’s expected to win the GOP primary in AZ-01.

12:00am: White smoke is pouring out of the SSP Labs mainframe, although we don’t know who the new pope will be. What we do know is that we’re projecting the 49-43 margin for Blakeslee in CA-SD15 is predicted to continue all the way to the end, with all vote-by-mail having been reported there. (Even though we’re only at 27% reporting, 80% of the vote has reported because so much of it was by mail.)

11:56pm: We’re up to 65% reporting in WA-03, but things have flattened out. It’s Heck 31, Herrera 27, Hedrick 14, Castillo 12, Crist 11. That’s GOP 53-Dems 44, if you’re playing along at home, not an especially good omen for November.

11:52pm: Sam Blakeslee (R) pulls into the lead in CA-SD15, thanks to some reports from his turf at the southern end of the district (SLO and Santa Barbara Cos.). Now he leads over Laird, 49-43. With Santa Cruz not having reported much of anything yet, though, this could tighten again.

11:48pm: The AP also just called the WY-Gov D primary for Leslie Petersen, who’s up 48-39 over Pete Gosar. We’re up to 85% reporting. And we’re a long way from a winner in the R primary, although the Ron Micheli bulge seems to have passed. It’s now 28 each for Mead and Meyer (with Meyer up by about 50), with Micheli down at 26 and Simpson at 15. Looks like the biggest outstanding clot of votes is all of Campbell County (Gillette).

11:45pm: The AP has already called WA-Sen for Murray and Rossi. Murray’s at 47, Rossi’s at 34, with Didier at 10 and Akers at 2. That’s with 45% reporting, but without any of the WA-07 part (i.e., Seattle) of King County reporting yet.

11:41pm: We’re up to 45% reporting in Washington, and that includes a sizable part of King County now. That moves the needle quite a bit, to Murray 48, Rossi 34, and Didier 10.

11:38pm: I guess we should check in on WA-08. Dave Reichert’s at 50%. Suzan DelBene is way back at 19, although that should still be enough to easily get her into November. (There’s another Dem, Tom Cramer, polling at 11, and a few other stray Dems in single digits. The Seattle Times’ new pet rock, Tim Dillon, is at 5.)

11:36pm: 22% are reporting in CA-SD15, and things are actually getting better for Laird. He’s up 49-43 over Blakeslee. However, the new votes are from Monterey Co., his home turf, so, again, don’t start getting optimistic yet.

11:35pm: Wow, I pretty much forgot about Wyoming, and with 71% reporting, we’re in pretty much a 3-way tie among the GOPers. Micheli, Mead, and Meyer are all at 28%. Micheli leads Mead by only 22 votes, and Mead’s ahead of Meyer by another 550. For the Dems, not much change: 48 Petersen, 39 Gosar.

11:32pm: In WA-03, we’re up to 49% reporting. It’s Heck 33, Herrera 27, Hedrick 14, Castillo 11, Crist 11.  

11:30pm: Now there’s 25% reporting statewide, says the AP. (Typical Washington deluge.) It’s Murray 42, Rossi 37, Didier 13. But bear in mind that absolutely none (of 1788) of King County’s precincts have reported, so that should pad things out for Murray once they get going (late, as they usually do).

11:25pm: Definitely getting some disparities here between the WA SoS, and the AP. The AP says the Senate race is Murray 41, Rossi 36, Didier 14, with 15% reporting. In WA-03, they have 37% reporting: Heck is at 32, Herrera at 30, Hedrick at 16, Castillo at 10, and Crist at 9.

11:22pm: OK, here’s some unexpected good news, though: John Laird is leading Sam Blakeslee in the CA-SD15 special election, with 10% of the vote in. It’s 47-45. However, that’s in Santa Clara Co. only, so Laird’s stronger areas (like San Luis Obispo) haven’t reported. But recall that Laird lost Santa Clara last time.

11:20pm: In the only other federal race worth watching in Washington, in WA-03, Jaime Herrera actually has a small lead over Denny Heck, 27-25, with the assorted teabaggers fairly far behind (Castillo at 17, Hedrick at 13). Cheryl Crist, who primaried Brian Baird from the left in 2008, is actually racking up a fair share too, at 12.

11:18pm: Wow, a lot of Washington votes landed with a thud. (Over 222,000 of them, according to the SoS.) Patty Murray’s at 44, Dino Rossi is at 37. Didier’s at 11, Akers is at 2. Goodspaceguy is at 0.4%.

---

RESULTS:

     California: Associated Press

     Washington: Associated Press | WA SoS | Politico

     Wyoming: Associated Press | Politico

After a three month hiatus, my baseline posts are back. This is the 4th one I did with the first three being MD Gov, NV Sen and FL Gov.

The links to the first posts are here:

http://swingstateproject.com/d…

http://swingstateproject.com/d…

http://swingstateproject.com/d…

This post is cross posted on http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more baseline posts and election analysis.

Until Chris Christie was elected, New Jersey was the state where Republicans were Charlie Brown trying to kick the football from Lucy. The Republicans kept nominating candidates there who kept losing. Finally in 2009, they nominated Christie who beat Corzine. Since Christie was elected, he has run his approval ratings to the ground, especially among teachers and other people who value education. The Christie debacle is another story for another post. This post will focus on the other state where Republicans keep attempting to kick the football. Washington State is that state. Interestingly, Washington and New Jersey voted 53% and 57% for the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2004 and 2008 respectively. Washington State was a big state for Republican gains in 1994 where an 8-1 Democratic delegation turned into a 7-2 Republican delegation. Now the delegation is at 6-3 Democratic. Since 1994 though, Republicans have not been winning too many statewide races. Democrats hold the Governorship and both Senate seats. The holders of these seats are interestingly all woman, the only state with the Governorship and both Senate seats held by women. Republicans could not beat the Senators Patti Murray (D) in 2004 and Maria Cantwell (D) in 2006. Still, Republicans have come dangerously close to winning. In 2004, a certain “moderate” Republican named Dino Rossi almost beat Christine Greigoire (D) for the Governorship but lost after a lengthy recount. He returned for a rematch in 2008 but lost by 6 points. Republicans now believe he is their candidate who can grab Murray’s seat.

With the anti incumbent climate, Murray is facing a close race with Dino Rossi. He did lose one advantage in the general election though. In 2004, he was able to eat into Greigoire’s margin in King County (Seattle) because he was moderate. Now he is more conservative so he can win the teabagger wing of the party. This is important for him because Washington has an interesting way of conducting elections. Instead of holding primaries for each party, the state has a jungle primary. This means that any Republican or Democrat can run in the election. If no one gets 50% or more of the vote, the top two vote getters will face each other in a runoff. If Rossi cannot win the teabaggers’ approval, a teabagger may jump into the race. Most polls show Murray leading Rossi in the jungle primary but she is not winning 50% of the vote yet. Still, other polls show her winning the runoff. This will be a close election so I have here a map of the baselines for the runoff assuming it happens. This map shows how the counties will vote if the candidates tied (actually, my vote count had Rossi winning by 72 votes but a lead that small out of almost 2 million votes is more than close enough.) I found the baseline percentages by adding the percentages by county from the 2008 Presidential, 2004 Senatorial and 2004 Gubernatorial elections. I then divided by three. For the votes, I had turnout be 65% of the 2008 level. I used the 2008 Presidential election for current trends, the 2004 Senatorial election for Murray and the 2004 Gubernatorial election for Rossi. First, you will see a map of the baselines, then a list of the counties and their votes.

There was a problem with the HTML coding I do not want to get into so I could not post the map here. The link for the map is here though.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/4…

Dark Red: Rossi 65% +

Red: Rossi 55%-64%

Light Red: Rossi 50%-54%

Light Blue: Murray 50%-54%

Blue: Murray 55%-64%

Dark Blue: Murray 65%+

Here is a better quality map of Washington: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…

Here is a link for 2008 Presidential results:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

For 2004 Senatorial results:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

For 2004 Gubernatorial results:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

List of counties:

County Names Murray Rossi Percentages

Adams 853 2,305 27%-73%

Asotin 2,416 3,941 38%-62%

Benton 14,301 33,369 30%-70%

Chelan 7,568 13,337 36%-64%

Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%

Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%

Columbia 415 1,052 28%-72%

Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%

Douglas 3,178 6,754 32%-68%

Ferry 848 1,450 37%-63%

Franklin 4,027 8,839 31%-69%

Garfield 237 655 27%-73%

Grant 5,226 12,735 29%-71%

Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%

Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%

Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%

King 366,136 236,061 61%-39%

Kitsap 39,653 41,604 49%-51%

Kittitas 4,545 7,140 39%-61%

Klickitat 2,821 3,785 43%-57%

Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%

Lincoln 1,152 2,753 30%-70%

Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%

Okanogan 4,173 6,879 38%-62%

Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%

Pend Oreille 1,640 2,653 38%-62%

Pierce 103,807 111,561 48%-52%

San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%

Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%

Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%

Snohomish 104,923 104,505 50%-50%

Spokane 61,628 82,026 43%-57%

Stevens 4,904 9,780 33%-67%

Thurston 44,051 38,752 53%-47%

Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%

Walla Walla 5,805 10,365 36%-64%

Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%

Whitman 4,984 6,448 44%-56%

Yakima 17,919 31,310 36%-64%

Total 991,680 991,752 50%-50%

After a slow few weeks in late June and July, August promises to be quite exciting, primary-wise!

Here are some races to watch in August:

8/3:

MO-Sen (R) – Blunt v. teabagger

MO-04 (R) – Free-for-all

MO-07 (R) – open seat

Proposition C – It’s about NULLIFICATION!

KS-Sen (R) – Moran/Tiahrt

KS-01, 04 (R) – open seats

KS-03 (R) – Yoder v. Lightner

KS-04 (D) – will Raj Goyle get VicRawl’d?

MI-Gov (D), (R)

MI-01, 02, 03 (R) – open seats

MI-07 (R) – Rooney/Walberg

MI-09 (R) – Rocky v. Welday

MI-12 (D)

MI-13 (D) – Kilpatrick weak

8/5: (hey, two primaries in one week!)

TN-Gov (R) – open seat

TN-03 (R) – Wamp’s open seat

TN-04 (R) – clusterfuck

TN-06 (R) – open seat

TN-08 (R) – Kirkland v. Flinn

TN-09 (D) – impending Willie Herenton fail

8/10:

CT-Gov (D) and (R) – Lamont/Malloy and Fedele/Foley

CT-Sen (R) – ghost of Rob Simmons?

CT-02, 04, 05 (R)

CO-Gov (R) – McInnis and Maes double fail

CO-Sen (D) – Bennet v. Romanoff

CO-Sen (R) – the devil wears prada?

CO-03, 07 (R)

GA-Gov (R) – Palin Handel v. Newt Deal

GA-07, 12 (R) – more runoffs

GA-09 (R) – Graves v. Hawkins round 3

MN-Gov (D) – Dayton v. Kelliher

8/17:

WA-Sen

WA-03

WY-Gov (D), (R)

8/24:

AZ-Sen (D), (R)

AZ-03 (R) – Shadegg’s open seat

AZ-01, 05, 08 (R)

VT-Gov (D)

FL-Gov (R) – (yes!!!!!!)

FL-Sen (D) – Meek v. Greene

FL-12, 25 (R) – open seats

FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)

FL-02 (D) – challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1

FL-17 (D) – Meek’s open seat

AK-Gov (R) – Parnell and the ghost of Palin?

AK-Sen (R) – Murkowski v. Palin proxy

8/28:

LA-Sen (R) – Vitter v. Traylor

LA-02 (D) – Lafonta v. Richmond

LA-03 (R)

WV-Sen (D), (R) – Byrd special primary

Greetings all –

I’m the writer/director of a new feature-length documentary about redistricting, a subject which I know is near and dear to many hearts here.  It’s called, aptly, GERRYMANDERING.  I’ve been working it now for about five years and the film will have its world premiere two weeks from today in the Discovery section of New York’s Tribeca Film Festival.

In the course of making the film, I got in touch with DavidNYC who provided terrific advice here and there.  When I let him know about the premiere he suggested I diary about it, so here goes…

GERRYMANDERING World Premiere!

Tribeca Film Festival 2010

Tuesday, April 27, 6:00 pm, Village East Cinema (181 Second Avenue at 12th Street)

Tickets are available now for Amex cardholders: http://www.tribecafilm.com/fes…

General tickets go on sale 4/19.  

If you can’t make the premiere, we’ll screen three more times:

Wednesday, April 28, 5:30 pm, Village East

Friday, April 30, 7:00 pm, Clearview Chelsea  (260 West 23rd Street (between 7th and 8th Avenues)

Saturday, May 1, 10:00 pm, Clearview Chelsea

Here’s the Tribeca FF description:

What is “gerrymandering”? You don’t have to wait for your oversized 2010 census envelope to figure out what exactly it means. Named for the Massachusetts governor who conveniently redrew a few erratic lines in 1812, gerrymandering is the redistricting of electoral boundaries to effect voting outcome in favor of a particular candidate, political party, et cetera. And why should you care? As the governor of California will tell you, the reestablishment of district lines takes away the voice of individual communities, reduces voter turnout and lessens competition among candidates. Whether it’s a community, race, or party issue, an issue it surely is.

Director Jeff Reichert gathers an impressive bevy of experts to smartly present a well-rounded exposé. From California’s struggle to pass Prop 11 to The Daily Show’s mockery of a gaggle of border-jumping Texas politicians, this accessible and informative documentary encourages us to put on our bifocals and more closely inspect the warp and woof of America’s democratic system.

–Ashley Havey

Residents of California, Florida, Texas, Iowa, DC, New York, Massachusetts, Louisiana or Oklahoma will recognize a lot of our shooting locations.  (Hopefully we’ll be able to get the film to the rest of the country soon).

For more info (and a quick, somewhat old teaser trailer) check out our website: www.gerrymanderingmovie.com

And if you have specific questions about the film, I can try to answer them in the comments…

According to census estimates, both Washington and Oregon are on the cusp of gaining another district. Hopefully both states will gain a district because they will be Democratic districts.

My goals are:

– Make the new districts Democratic.

– Make Dave Reichert’s district too Democratic.

– Cross the Cascades only once per state.

– Make the districts look compact and look fair.

The state maps are thumbnails. Click on it to link to a full-size map.

10 District Washington:

District 1: Rick Larsen (D) (blue) (Old 2nd)

Rural-and-small-cities Western Washington

The old 2nd district loses some territory in southwestern Snohomish County, including Everett and Marysville, and gainst territory in eastern King and Pierce Counties. Its population does not change much.

Population Per county:

County	New 1st	Old 2nd
San Juan	96718	96718
Whatcom	196529	196529
Skagit	118000	118000
Snohomish	139664	332734
King	65772	656
Pierce	38591	0

It is probably more Republican than before, but still Democratic enough.

District 2: Jay Inslee (D) (green) (Old 1st)

Cities/Suburbs North of Seattle

The old 2nd district loses its territory west of the Puget Sound and gains more territory in Snohomish County. Now it’s contiguous, and compact, and still safe for Democrats.

District 3: Jim McDermott (D) (purple) (Old 7th)

Seattle

The entire city of Seattle, plus a very small area directly south of the city. Because the suburbs are also very Democratic, there is nothing to gain by splitting the city among several districts. Seattle is 94% of the district’s population.

District 4: Dave Reichert (R) (red) (Old 8th)

Cities/Suburbs East of Seattle

This district is smaller than the old 8th, and more Democratic. Dave Reichert won’t be able to get reelected here.

District 5: Adam Smith (D) (yellow) (Old 9th)

Cities/Suburbs South of Seattle

There must have been a lot of growth here because this district is a lot smaller than the old 9th. It fills the corridor between Seattle and Tacoma without entering either city.

District 6: Norm Dicks (D) (turquoise) (Old 6th)

Cities/Suburbs West of Seattle

The 6th currently takes consists of the entire western peninsula. The new 6th is a compact urban district along the shore of the Puget Sound from Tacoma to Bremerton.

District 7: No Incumbent (gray)

Western Peninsula

This is the new district. It is everything west of the Puget Sound and north of the mouth of the Columbia, except the urban area around Seattle/Tacoma. Its largest city is Olympia. Finally Olympia dominates a congressional district; 37% of the district’s population is in Thurston County. It should be safely Democratic.

District 8: Brian Baird (D) (light purple) (Old 3rd)

Southern Washington

This district is dominated by Vancouver. Clark County is 65% of the district. This is the only district to cross the Cascades. It takes southern Yakima County and eastern Yakima city. Yakima will be the only county in Washington split between a Democratic and Republican district. I don’t have voting data, but here is the demographic data:

Yakima County	8th	9th	Total
Population	132430	102134	234564
%White	29%	78%	51%
%Hispanic	60%	16%	41%
%Native	6%	1%	4%

Southern Yakima is a welcome addition to a Democratic district.

District 9: Doc Hastings (R) (cyan) (Old 4th)

Western Eastern Washington

Strongly Republican.

District 10: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) (magenta) (Old 5th)

Eastern Eastern Washington

Republican enough.

9 District Washington:





The obvious differences between the 9 District map and the 10 district map are: there are only 4 urban Seattle-area districts, and this time one of the eastern districts has an appendage west of the Cascades.

District 1:

Extends further into the (probably Republican) suburbs of King and Pierce Counties. Now they make up nearly a quarter of the district’s population. So the district is still dominated by its northern counties, still safe for its Democratic incumbent, and should be safe for Democrats in the future.

District 2:

Takes more territory in northern King County.

District 3:

Takes more territory south of Seattle. But Seattle is still 85% of the district’s population.

District 4:

Still a more Democratic version of the existing 8th.

District 5:

Now it includes Tacoma.

District 6:

Similar to the existing 6th, but it trades Tacoma for Olympia.

District 7:

The Baird district loses Olympia and eastern Lewis County, and gains Grays Harbor County. This probably makes the district shift more Republican because even though Grays Harbor is Democratic, it has less population than Olympia.

District 8:

In addition to Eastern Washington, it takes 13000 residents in Lewis County. Lewis County is the only western county that voted for McCain.

District 9:

Just like the existing 5th, but a little bigger.

6 District Oregon:

District 1: Earl Blumenaur (D) (blue) (Old 3rd)

Portland

90% of its population is in the city of Portland. I recommend doing this as long as it doesn’t weaken the other districts too much.

District 2: David Wu (D) (green) (Old 1st)

Portland suburbs

A small suburban Portland district is a good idea, as long as it doesn’t pack in too much Democratic voting strength, weakening the other districts.

District 3: No Incumbent (purple)

Western Willamette Valley and Coast

The several small left-leaning counties in northwestern Oregon usually get split up and attached to urban districts. Now I’m putting them together in their own district. Its largest cities are Hillsboro and Corvallis.

District 4: Kurt Schrader (D) (red) (Old 5th)

Eastern Willamette Valley

I would only recommend creating a district like this if its portion of Clackamas County voted at least 52% for Obama. It includes Salem, Albany, and eastern Gresham.

District 5: Peter Defazio (D) (yellow) (Old 4th)

Southern Oregon

This is an interesting shape, mean to avoid the most rural conservative parts of Western Oregon. It starts in Lane County, including Eugene and Springfield, goes through northwest Douglas County, avoiding as much of the county as possible. It takes in all of Coos and Curry Counties. It takes southern Josephine, including Grants Pass, and southwest Jackson, including Medford and Ashland. It should be more Democratic than the existing 4th.

District 6: Greg Walden (R) (turquoise) (Old 2nd)

Eastern Oregon

All of eastern Oregon plus the rural conservative parts of southwestern Oregon.

5 District Oregon:



If Oregon only gets 5 districts, then at least they will be 4 safe Democratic districts. However it doesn’t preserve the “communities of interest” I created in the 2nd and 3rd districts of the 6 district version.

District 1:

Multnomah County and most of Columbia County.

District 2:

Portland’s western suburbs combined with the rural northwestern part of the state.

District 3:

Nearly all of Clackamas, all of Marion, all of Polk, and the northwest corner of Linn (Albany). Safe Democratic.

District 4:

I’m proud of this one. It starts in Lincoln County (60% Obama) and follows the coast. It takes Eugene and Springfield, as well as Grants Pass, Medford and Ashland.

District 5:

Eastern Oregon and a lot of rural conservative territory in Western Oregon.

Conclusion:

No matter what happens in the census, Republicans should get no more than 2 seats in Washington and 1 in Oregon. Putting Seattle in a single district is a good idea, while putting Portland in a single district could be risky. The idea that a Washington 8-2 plan makes stronger Democratic districts than a 7-2 plan is counterintuitive but it seems to be true.

The goal of this was to draw 8 districts capable of electing Democrats.  Without detailed political data it’s difficult to know whether this is ridiculously overreaching or just “aggressive”, but I though I’d give it a shot.

The Whole State:



(Larger Resolution)

Blow up of Seattle-Tacoma:

District 1:

This district is now centered on the Olympia Peninsula, but still retails a portion of Seattle and it’s Northern suburbs.

District 2:

Loses Whatcom and Island counties in exchange for some suburban areas South of Everett and a small area East of the Cascades.

District 3:

This district (which in it’s old configuration went narrowly for Bush twice) has been shored up slightly by replacing most of conservative Lewis county with a larger portion of Olympia and Dem trending Klickitat County.

District 4:

Heart of Conservative Eastern Washington.  Yakima, which was the population center of the old district has been removed in exchange for the reddest areas of the old 5th.

District 5:

Politically competitive district in Northern and far Eastern Washington.  While it went for Obama in 2008, it probably supported Bush in 2004.  A strong Dem from Spokane could wrest the seat from McMorris Rodgers.

District 6:

This seat has been changed fairly substantially. While, still anchored in Tacoma, it no longer contains the Olympia Peninsula, but instead has portions of Thuston, most of Lewis and a small part of Yakima counties.  Current Congressman Norm Disks would be unhappy, as his Bremerton home is now outside of the district.

District 7:

To help out some of the neighboring districts the 7th now has less of Seattle and gained some suburban regions that were in the 1st and 8th.  It still should be very Democratic.

District 8:

The new 8th is now entirely in King County, gaining Renton, Kent and a healthy portion of Seattle.  Hopefully enough to send Sheriff Dave riding off into the sunset.

District 9:

This is the district I am the most apprehensive about.  While I did give it a portion of Seattle I also added some conservative parts of Pierce County and the City of Yakima.  I would want to look at more detailed political data to make sure I didn’t push it too far right.