This diary has the baselines for the Nevada Senate race this time. Reid is currently unpopular because the Senate is unpopular and Reid is the Senate Majority Leader. Also, the economy in Nevada is bad after the foreclosure crisis and the decrease in tourists so Nevadans will be blaming the incumbent. About 20 candidates are running against Reid in the Republican primary. Since the primary does not occur until June 8th, I do not know who the Republican nominee will be. Most polls suggest Sue Lowden (R), a former State Senator from Clark County will be the nominee. Recently, she damaged her chances by talking about bartering healthcare for chickens. Still, a recent poll showed her with a lead of 17 points in the primary. Another recent poll showed her lead by 10 points drop to 4. She has not even faced Reid’s 25 million dollars in a state where 1 million is enough to run a credible campaign. This race should turn around faster as soon as every voter knows about Lowden’s chicken comment and anything else Reid can find. Lowden benefits however from the fact that Clark County will not see a high African American turnout or Hispanic turnout (which definitely will change if the immigration bill gets the Hispanic community active.)
A bit about Reid’s past elections: in 2004, he won 61%-35% against Richard Ziser, a real estate investor from Las Vegas. Reid even won the majority of voters outside of Clark County (Las Vegas.) Being a Mormon may have helped in rural areas but now that the rural areas are prime teabagger territory, Reid may face very large Republicans margins there. In 1998, it was not as easy. John Ensign (R), the now disgraced Republican Junior Senator of Nevada ran against Harry Reid. Ensign lost by only 100 votes while losing Clark County by nine but barely winning Washoe County (Reno).
About the baselines: the baselines show the candidates’ percentages for each county if the race were a tie. I found them by adding percentages from Reid’s 2004 Senatorial election and the 2008 presidential election by county. Then I divided the result by two, giving me the baselines. I am sorry that the baselines are not in a straight line. After some links, you will see them.
Link for 2004 Senatorial election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…
Link for 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…
County Name Reid Republican Other
Carson City 45% 54% 1%
Churchill 29% 70% 1%
Clark 54% 45% 1%
Douglas 35% 64% 1%
Elko 27% 72% 1%
Esmerelda 23% 76% 1%
Eureka 21% 78% 1%
Humboldt 34% 65% 1%
Lander 29% 70% 1%
Lincoln 24% 75% 1%
Lyon 35% 64% 1%
Mineral 52% 47% 1%
Nye 41% 58% 1%
Pershing 37% 62% 1%
Storey 42% 57% 1%
Washoe 49% 50% 1%
White Pine 38% 61% 1%
For those of us who like visual aides like myself, here is a map:
Dark Red: Republican 70%+
Red: Republican 60%-69%
Light Red: Republican 50%-59%
Light Blue: Reid 50%-54%
The baselines do not show too many surprises for me. It shows Reid winning Clark County in the high single digits which he needs to do to win. Also, the only other county he wins is Mineral County which McCain won by six points in 2008. Reid also loses Washoe County by one point which makes sense because Washoe County recently votes in line with the candidates’ statewide percentages. A difference with the baselines is that I expect Reid to win Washoe County by a few hundred votes if the race ties because Washoe County is trending Democratic quickly.
Just in case you were wondering, I will do Florida’s Gubernatorial race next. Do you have any suggestions for statewide races after that?
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is a former State Senator. She was most recently chair of the Nevada Republican Party. And Wikipedia, at least, seems to think her district was DEM-leaning, and she got defeated by a Democrat (although the entire Wikipedia page looks like it has been written by her campaign).
because the majority leader’s re-election campaign is on the line.
The map, however, looks somewhat messy.
There are a number of programs that can help you make really good pictures. My favorite is GIMP (the GNU Manipulation Program), which is basically like a free version of photoshop. With a bit of familiarization, you can make beautiful maps.
I’ve also started trying to use Inkscape, which works really well with svgs. It’s what people on wikipedia use to make those flawless-looking results by county.
And I am glad. Let’s get a real majority leader in there like Schumer or Durbin.
…the very real possibility that none of the Republicans is up to the task of a brutal general election campaign, and voters will sour on them as a result.
Lowden really screwed up bad, and the only good thing for her about this barter bullshit, is that she has enough lead time to learn from it before making any more disastrous gaffes, if she’s in fact capable of learning from her mistakes.
But I’m increasingly confident the election will tighten, and Reid obviously will have the resources to just pound the shit out of the Republican nominee, whether Lowden (who does not at all have it wrapped up) or Tarkanian or Angle.
If I had to place a bet today, I’d still say Reid loses by a mid-single digit margin, but there’s no question that he still has a plausible path to victory.
No, people in Nevada don’t like him. But it’s one thing to not like a politician, and another to vote to send a lightweight like Tarkanian or a nutcase like Lowden to represent your state in Washington. I think Reid will run a strong campaign, and really point out how much a small state like Nevada benefits by having a majority leader represent them. In the end, people may not be thrilled voting for Reid, but compared to the alternative I think they will re-elect him.
By the way, I think it’s a great idea that he’s running ads showing how HCR is benefitting ordinary Nevadans. This will be a great set up for the inevitable chicken barter ads to follow. The choice will be clear – vote for someone who pushed through an unpopular bill that will actually do a lot of people good, or for someone who doesn’t have a clue. (and with all the focus on the chicken stuff, I think he staffer who said what she really means is that people should pay cash for health care rather than using insurance may end up being even more damaging)
I think this mope is going to lose some ground over this idea of turning health care into some sort of “Bartertown” from “Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome.” But she IS a political insider which will count for something. There are very few women who have cracked the old boys network like she has. If nothing else she can prove that she can drink with the best of them. And that is saying a lot. And the flap over her tour bus and contribution limits is hard to explain for somebody who should know what better. Is she that stupid? How could anyone who has been a political animal like her and not understand what you can and cannot take for contributions? I think yes, she can be that stupid. Look at the sort of people she appeals to and that will say a lot. Rollo Weems