Tag: IN-Gov

SurveyUSA (4/25-27, likely voters, 4/11-13 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48 (46)

Jim Schellinger (D): 36 (38)

Undecided: 16 (16)

(MoE: ±4%)

This Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll has a different take (4/23-4/24, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 26

Jim Schellinger (D): 28

Undecided: 46

(MoE: ±4.2%)

General election match-ups:

Jim Schellinger (D): 41

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45

Jill Long Thompson (D): 44

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 43

Research 2000 (4/21-24, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48

Jim Schellinger (D): 42

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±5%)

General election match-ups:

Jim Schellinger (D): 44

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 10

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 10

(n=600)

These numbers are awfully similar to the last poll of this race by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics — Thompson seems to have a small edge in the primary, while both potential November match-ups are dead heats.

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

From the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (likely voters, 4/14-16):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%

Jim Schellinger(D): 41%

Undecided: 12%

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Jim Schellinger (D): 46%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 47%

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 48%

(MoE: ±2.8%)

“My Man Mitch” Daniels also uttered a heretical statement in front of a group of Republicans, stating that it’s “time to let Ronald Reagan go.”

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 4/11-13, 3/29-31 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 46% (39%)

Jim Schellinger (D): 38% (41%)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Three new polls today from GOP polling firm McLaughlin & Associates (3/6-9, likely voters, no trendlines).

CO-Sen:

Mark Udall (D): 44%

Bob Schaffer (R): 32%

(MoE: ±4.9%)

ME-Sen:

Tom Allen (D): 31%

Susan Collins (R-inc): 54%

(MoE: ±4.9%)

MN-Sen:

Al Franken (D): 40%

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46%

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Gov (D) (SUSA):

Jim Schellinger (D): 41%

Jill Long Thompson (D): 39%

Undecided: 20%

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rumor has it, Schellinger will pick up the endorsement of former Indiana Gov. Joe Kernan tomorrow, which should be a valuable boost in a race as close as this one.

Could Indiana be due for a major political upheaval in 2008?  A new poll confirms that incumbent Republican Gov. “My Man” Mitch Daniels is standing on shaky ground.

Selzer & Co. for the Indianapolis Star-WTHR TV (Nov. 13-16, likely votes):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 44%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 43%

Undecided: 13%

Jim Schellinger (D): 44%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 40%

Undecided: 16%

(MoE: ±4.6%)

So we’ve got Daniels, an incumbent Governor, well under 50% against someone who has been out of the political spotlight for quite some time (JLT) and someone who’s never held an elected office before (Schellinger, an Indianapolis architect).  

Want some gravy for those trimmings?  Mitch’s approve/disapprove rating stands at a rough 40%/50% and 57% think that the state is headed in the wrong direction.

Daniels won’t be easy to beat by any means, but these and other poll results showing that more Hoosiers plan to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate than they do for the Republican nominee are leaving many wondering if blue dreams could come true next year.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Indiana’s Republican Governor Mitch Daniels has had a bit of a bumpy first term.  Controversy surrounding his initiative to privatize Indiana’s toll road, his efforts to push the state into following daylight savings time, and his clashes with the state legislature over tax increases wore down his approval rating dramatically.  In fact, Daniels’ disapproval ratings were higher than his approval ratings for all but one of SurveyUSA’s monthly tracking polls during 2006. 

Research 2000 has released the first poll of Daniels’ re-election race, and of the Democratic primary between state Senator Richard Young, businessman Jim Schellinger, and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson.  The results are not pretty for Mitch.

First, the Governor’s approvals:

Q: How would you rate the performance of Mitch Daniels as Governor; excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Excellent/Good: 45
Fair/Poor: 47
Not Sure: 8

MoE: ±3.5%

Next, the straight-up re-election numbers:

Q: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote to reelect Mitch Daniels, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Daniels?

Re-Elect: 39
Would Consider Another Candidate: 21
Would Not Re-Elect: 37

Interestingly, 14% of Republicans polled would consider voting for another candidate, and 12% would vote for someone else.  In a general election match-up poll against Jill Long Thompson, Daniels isn’t exactly sitting in a position of strength:

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46
Jill Long Thompson (D): 38
Undecided: 16

That’s a surprisingly strong showing by Thompson, who served in the House from 1988 to 1994, and narrowly lost a comeback attempt against Republican Chris Chocola in Indiana’s 2nd District in 2002.  The poll also shows her in a strong position to win the Democratic primary:

Jill Long Thompson: 41
Richard Young: 16
Jim Schellinger: 10

Daniels still has over a year to turn this ship around, but he’s showing a great deal of weakness this far out.  Perhaps Indiana voters are realizing that Bush’s man is not theirs.

(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)

The race to unseat incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels will begin this afternoon when local businessman Jim Schellinger files to “explore” a run for the Democratic nomination. From local political columnist Matt Tully:

Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger has formally announced plans to run for governor as a Democrat. Many in the party have filed behind Schellinger and believe he is the party’s best hope of defeating Gov. Mitch Daniels in 2008. Schellinger will file candidacy papers this afternoon.

“I think today is a fitting day,” Schellinger said in a phone interview this morning. “Today is the Feast of St. Joseph — patron saint of labor and the family.”

Former House Speaker John Gregg has been another rumored candidate. But Gregg has said he will not run if Schellinger does. In a recent conversation, I mentioned to Gregg that many people believe a Shellinger-Gregg ticket would be a formidable one. He downplayed that, then said: “That has a nice ring to it. That has a very nice ring to it.”

Schellinger appears to have institutional support from the state Party, who has stated repeatedly that they want to avoid a contested primary. State Senator Richard Young had previous filed, but is not considered a strong challenge to a Schellinger candidacy. The wild card at this point is former Rep. Jill Long Thompson, who has stated on numerous occaisions that she is interested in running for the nomination herself. Over the weekend, she took her first swipe at the assumed Schellinger campaign:

Former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson says she’ll decide soon whether to seek the Democratic nomination for governor.

And if she does, she said, she’ll leave her job as chief operating officer of the Washington-based National Center for Food and Agriculture Policy in order to run full time for Indiana’s top office.
Thompson, who lives on a Marshall County farm, served in Congress from March 1989 to January 1995. She made her only statewide run for office in 1986, when she lost to Republican Dan Quayle in the U.S. Senate race.

She was late getting into that race, as the party asked her to step in when its expected candidate, Louis Mahern, became ill. If she gets in this time, Thompson said she plans to begin early.
“If I make the decision to run, I’ll form a committee and begin well before summer,” she said.
Indiana Senate Minority Leader Richard Young Jr., D-Milltown, already has launched his campaign for governor. And Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger also is weighing a run for the Democratic nomination.

Thompson said she recently met Schellinger. Her estimation?

“I think I would win,” she said with a laugh.

More updates to come as I am sure the local media will be giving attention to the Jim Schellinger announcement.

We will be covering the race over at Blue Indiana, and invite any and all to join the discussion over there as well.

So far, the Indiana Governor’s race has been on the quieter end of 2008’s potential gubernatorial battlegrounds.  Incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels was elected after a 2004 campaign that emphasized his close working relationship with President Bush as former director of the Office of Management and Budget.  Daniels even went so far as to adopt “My Man Mitch”–Bush’s nickname for him–as his campaign slogan.  And while Daniels handily beat incumbent Democrat Joe Kernan for control of Indiana’s gubernatorial office by a 10 point margin, he did perversely manage to follow in Bush’s footsteps during his term as Governor–that is, he perfectly mirrored Bush’s descent into an indefinite slump in the polls.  According to SUSA, Daniels only had a net positive approval rating (of 1 point) once during the 14 month span ending in November 2006.  (More recent polling seems harder to come by.)

Nevertheless, despite Daniels’ obvious weaknesses, the few big names from the state’s Democratic bench have been reluctant to throw their hats in the ring.  Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, who was regarded as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination should he decide to pursue it, declined to enter the race last month.  So far, the only names in the race have been State Senate Democratic Leader Richard Young and Indianapolis architect and political neophyte Jim Schellinger.  However, the local media reports that a more familiar name in Indiana politics is gearing up for a challenge to Daniels:

Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson wants to run for governor of Indiana. A Democrat, Thompson served three terms in Congress before losing in the Republican landslide of 1994. She came to Indianapolis Monday seeking support for a bid to take on Republican Mitch Daniels in 2008.

Thompson met with union leaders to spell out her plans for the 2008 governor’s race. She began calling Democratic party leaders a month ago and says she hopes to make up her mind before summer.

“Not only am I getting a good response, but we’re optimistic that its going to be a good year for us in 2008,” said Thompson.

Jill Long Thompson, as you may recall, represented the 4th District in Congress from 1988 to 1994, when Republican Mark Souder defeated her in the so-called “Republican Revolution”.  She then served as an Under Secretary for Rural Economic and Community Development at the USDA in the Clinton Administration until 2001.  In 2002, she made a comeback attempt against Republican Chris Chocola in the 2nd District, losing by a close 46-50 margin. 

I’m not going to hold Long Thompson’s 2002 loss against her–a four point loss in an R+4.3 district in a bad year for Democrats nationwide is a pretty strong showing, if you ask me.  She might make a compelling candidate for Governor.  Certainly, she’ll have the appropriate fundraising connections to mount a strong challenge.

Another point of interest here is that by knocking out Daniels, Democrats will gain more ground in the state’s redistricting process, allowing the current map, which is quite favorable to Democrats, to survive (assuming Democrats hold their ground in the State House).

Race Tracker: IN-Gov

From the Evans-Novak Political Report (via e-mail – no link):

While some discuss a fourth election contest between Rep. Baron Hill (D), and former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R), Hill may actually be preparing for a run against Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). For Hill, the equation is simple: a weakened Republican governor in a mostly conservative state, with no other obviously strong Democratic candidates in the wings. Although Republican polls smile on Daniels, nearly everyone attributes the failure of GOP congressional candidates last year to anger over some of Daniels’s official acts, such as the privatization of the state’s Northern Toll Road and the shift to Daylight Saving Time.

The Democratic mayors of Fort Wayne and Indianapolis have decided against entering the race, as has Sen. Evan Bayh (D). That leaves only State Senate Minority Leader Richard Young (D).

Meanwhile, Hill’s own conservative district could give him trouble again in the presidential election year — as it did unexpectedly in 2004 — should he try to stay in the House. This will particularly be the case if someone like Hillary Clinton heads the Democratic ticket.

Should Hill decide to run for governor, Sodrel would be heavily favored to take back this seat against any comer.

One additional detail to note is that Hill had by far the weakest showing of the three Democrats who beat Republican incumbents in Indiana last year. He won with just 50% of the vote, and indeed, a Libertarian candidate took nearly 10,000 votes – just a shade more than Hill’s margin over Sodrel.

So I do agree that this might be a possible “escape route” for Hill, and that it would probably come at the cost of his current seat. However, I’m not sure Novak is right about Daniels’ current approval ratings. In November, he was 41st in net approval among all governors according to SUSA, at 43-49. And it’s worth noting that four of the guys who were less popular than Daniels no longer hold office.

On the flipside, a more recent poll puts Daniels at 57-40. But be aware that the firm that took this poll, Public Opinion Strategies, is a Republican outfit. And while Daniels didn’t commission this poll (the Indiana Association of Realtors did), he’s been a client of theirs in the recent past. I look forward to seeing SUSA’s next survey to see where things really stand.

Race Tracker pages (feel free to edit as needed): IN-GOV | IN-09.