Tag: IN-Gov

Howey-Gauge (8/30-31, likely voters, 4/23-24 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 35 (36)

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 53 (55)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This is the fourth consecutive poll since June showing Daniels with a big lead. A couple of years ago, My Man Mitch seemed like a juicy target to be taken down by an aggressive populist Democratic campaign. However, Daniels has turned around his once-sagging job approval ratings and has put some serious daylight between himself and JLT.

While we don’t base our ratings system entirely on polls, you can’t outrun the trend lines. SSP is shifting its rating of this race from “Lean Republican” to Likely Republican.

On the bright side, this latest Howey-Gauge poll shows McCain leading Obama only by a 45-43 margin. Can McCain afford to continue to write this state off as a guaranteed GOP win?

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

SurveyUSA (8/16-18, likely voters, 6/21-23 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 38 (45)

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 52 (50)

Andy Horning (L): 3 (-)

Christopher Stried (I): 3 (-)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Tough numbers for Long Thompson. Indeed, the Pollster composite for this race is getting really ugly — yet another reason why Obama cannot afford to tap Evan Bayh as his running mate.

Bonus finding: John McCain, on the upswing as of late, has pulled ahead to a five-point lead in Indiana. Obama posted a single point lead here in June.

SurveyUSA (6/21-23, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first poll of the race since Long Thompson picked state Rep. Dennie Oxley as her running mate. The Oxley pick was meant to shore up JLT’s strength in southern Indiana, where Daniels currently leads by 53-42. In Northern Indiana, where JLT’s base is located, she leads by 55-39. But the trouble spot seems to be Indianapolis, where SUSA shows Daniels crushing by a surprising 63-34. If she can’t turn things around in Indianapolis — one of the few Dem-friendly regions in the state — she’ll be facing long odds in November.

Bonus finding: in the Presidential race, Obama is leading McCain by 48-47 in Indiana. Perhaps Indiana will be a swing state this year.

That sound you’re hearing is the thud of dozens of McCain strategists fainting.

Benenson Strategy Group for Jill Long Thompson (5/20-22, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 39

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±3.5%)

That’s not as bad a margin for JLT as was the case in a recent Indiana Legislative Insight poll, but the fact that Daniels is ahead in Thompson’s own internals does suggest that the incumbent has the early edge here. This one is tough, but doable — and a very critical office to hold for the next round of redistricting.

Indiana Legislative Insight (5/27-6/1, registered voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 35

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s a surprisingly large lead for Daniels, and it doesn’t quite jibe with the latest polls from SurveyUSA and Research 2000 taken before the primary that showed this race in tossup territory. However, the last two Howey-Gauge polls both pegged this race with similar margins for Daniels. I’d like to see some more post-primary polls before I buy stock in this one.

Here’s a bonus finding from the same poll: McCain leads Obama by 47-38 in the state.

(From the diaries.  I wouldn’t go so far as to call MO-GOV a “safe Democratic pickup” just yet, though. – promoted by James L.)

Cross-posted from Election Inspection, here are the latest Governor polls:

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
IN	Daniels	Research 2000 4/21-4/24	Jill Long Thompson	45	Mitch Daniels	45
MO	Blunt	SUSA 5/16-5/18	Jay Nixon	57	Kenny Hulshof	33
MO	Blunt	SUSA 5/16-5/18	Jay Nixon	58	Sarah Steelman	33
MT	Schweitzer	Mason-Dixon 5/19-5/21	Brian Schweitzer	55	Roy Brown	30
NC	Easley	SUSA 5/17-5/19	Bev Perdue	52	Pat McCrory	45
UT	Huntsman	Dan Jones & Assoc. 5/13-5/19	Bob Springmeyer	13	Jon Huntsman	77
WA	Gregoire	Rasmussen 5/12	Christine Gregoire	52	Dino Rossi	41

Thus far, Missouri looks to be a Safe Democratic pickup, while Indiana is a toss-up. Vermont is currently unpolled, but State Speaker of the House Gaye Symington (D-VT) could make the race against incumbent GOP Gov. Jim Douglas a competitive one. North Carolina and Washington look like likely Democratic retentions so far. I don’t expect Utah, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, or New Hampshire to become competitive, and the only question in Delaware is which Democrat will win the primary.

IN-Gov (D):

5214 of 5230 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Percent
Jim Schellinger	49.8
Jill Long Thompson	50.2

IN-07 (D):

442 of 445 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Andre Carson	62,815
Woody Myers	32,463
David Orentlicher	28,328
Carolene Mays	10,419

RESULTS: Indianapolis Star | Ft. Wayne Journal-Gazette

1:18PM: With only 26 precincts to go, JLT has pulled ahead by 50.2-48.8… a stunning evening.

12:42PM: And we’re tied at 50-50…

12:25PM: Holy smokes — I can’t believe I overlooked this. In Indiana’s 5th District, incumbent GOPer Dan Burton nearly LOST to challenger John McGoff. Burton won 45,378 votes to McGoff’s 39,305. 2729 votes went to another challenger, Clayton Alfred.

11:54PM: JLT is winning the vote in Lake by a 54-46 margin with 158 of 599 precincts reporting.

11:27PM: As we wait for Lake County to count their votes, here’s a stunning number: In 2004, 969,000 people in Indiana voted for John Kerry. Tonight, 1,099,780 Indianans voted for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in the presidential primary.

10:10PM: The Schellinger-JLT race really hinges on the city of Gary and Lake County. The candidate who wins there will win this race. But which one will do so?

9:04PM: Schellinger just pulled into the lead!

8:59PM: Schellinger has closed the gap to 49.3-50.7 with about 60% of precincts reporting.

8:47PM: Carson just put his race away.

8:13PM: Maybe I spoke too soon. With less than 40% of precincts reporting, Schellinger has closed the gap to 48.3-51.7.

7:46PM: Damn, Carson is in a tight three-way race with Orentlicher and and Myers. This one should be close.

7:41PM: JLT is pulling roughly even with Schellinger in Marion County (Indianapolis) so far. I’m not sure that Schellinger has enough mojo in southern Indiana to do this thing tonight.

6:41PM Eastern: A close race in IN-Gov so far, 50.5-49.5 for JLT. Schellinger is doing well in south Indiana so far, while JLT has the lead in the northern counties.

Polls close in Indiana at 6pm Eastern and in North Carolina at 7:30pm Eastern (although some metropolitan areas may keep their polls open until 8:30), so there’s still plenty of time to post your predictions for tonight’s contests.

We ran through the races worth watching in these two states last week, but the contests that we’ll be following are:

IN-Gov (D): Jill Long Thompson v. Jim Schellinger

IN-07 (D): Andre Carson v. Woody Myers (and others)

NC-Sen (D): Kay Hagan v. Jim Neal

NC-Gov (D & R): Beverly Perdue v. Richard Moore; Fred Smith v. Pat McCrory (and others)

NC-03 (R): Walter Jones v. Joe McLaughlin

NC-10 (R): Patrick McHenry v. Lance Sigmon

Feel free to post your predictions for these races in the comments.  Oh, and if you insist, you can give your presidential guesses as well.  Have at it.

SurveyUSA (5/2-4, likely and actual voters, 4/25-27 in parens):

Jim Schellinger (D): 41 (36)

Jill Long Thompson (D): 43 (48)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

I still suspect that JLT has the slight edge here, but this one seems up in the air.  We’ll be following the returns as they come in tomorrow night.

May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies.  We’ve got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.

Let’s take a look at the month ahead:

May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:  

• LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with “newspaper editor” Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker.  In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls.  However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.

  We’ll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact.  The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead.  SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then.  There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.

May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:

• IN-Gov (D): Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger will square off with former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nod against Mitch Daniels.  Schellinger’s had a big fundraising edge, but the polls here have generally been tight, with an edge for Thompson.  This one could be close.
• IN-07 (D): Despite winning a March special election to fill the vacant seat created by his grandmother’s passing, Rep. Andre Carson faces a competitive primary for the Democratic slot on the November ballot.  His strongest rival is former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers, who has lent his campaign a substantial amount of money.  State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays will also be on the ballot.
• NC-Gov: Democrats will decide a contentious primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore for the gubernatorial nomination.  Perdue has had the advantage in nearly all of SurveyUSA’s tracking polls here.

  Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans).  In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.

• NC-Sen (D): State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal will face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole.  While this contest was effectively tied for a while, Hagan’s large fundraising edge on Neal has been enough to buy her a 20-point lead in the latest poll.
• NC-03 (R): For a while, it looked like this primary might have been as heated as Andy Harris’ successful overthrow of anti-war moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland.  But Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin’s campaign against Rep. Walter Jones hasn’t gotten a lot of fundraising traction.  It will still be worth watching to see just how tolerant GOP primary voters will be of Jones’ anti-war stance.
• NC-10 (R): While I don’t expect Air Force vet Lance Sigmon to topple the odious Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, his campaign drew a fair bit of attention for his aggressive attacks on McHenry’s antics in Iraq (calling a security worker a “two-bit security guard”, and compromising troop safety by posting a video of an attack in the Green Zone).  Democrats have a strong candidate against McHenry for the November election — veteran and hero Daniel Johnson — so Sigmon’s showing might give us a good reading on how damaging McHenry’s behavior has been to his re-election chances in this R+15 district.

May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.

• MS-01: The big event.  Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate.  Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election.  Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama.  But the DCCC is playing to win, and they’ve invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race.  This one should be close.
• NE-Sen (D): Here’s something rare — a Democratic primary for a statewide office in Nebraska.  Businessman and former Republican Tony Raimondo will compete with former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for the Democratic nod against the Republican front-runner, Mike Johanns.
• NE-02 (D): GOP Rep. Lee Terry had a surprisingly close re-election campaign in 2006, winning his district by less than 10 points against political neophyte Jim Esch.  Now, Esch is back for a rematch, but will first meet with Iraq War vet Richard Carter for the Democratic nomination.  Between Esch’s name recognition and Carter’s weak fundraising, Esch is in a good position to win here.

May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.

• KY-Sen (D): Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford and businessman Greg Fischer will face off against a slew of also-rans for the Democratic nomination against GOP obstructionist-in-chief Mitch McConnell.  Lunsford has never been able to win a Democratic primary, but this might be his chance.  Polls have shown him with a large lead against Fischer, whose campaign has yet to catch fire.
• KY-02 (D): Democrats will go to the polls to decide between state Sen. David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire for the Democratic nomination to contest this open seat left behind by the retiring Rep. Ron Lewis.  Boswell was seen as the early front-runner, but his fundraising has been extremely sluggish ($30K to Haire’s $200K in the first quarter).  Still, Boswell might have a chance based on name recognition alone.
• OR-Sen (D): Another big event, with state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick competing for the Democratic nomination against Gordon Smith.  Novick has kept this a competitive race, airing quirky ads and winning several key newspaper endorsements.
• OR-05: With the retirement of Rep. Darlene Hooley (D), there are tight primary contests on both sides to succeed her.  Democrats will pick between former Gov. Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader.  Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far, while Schrader appears to be the DCCC’s preferred candidate. (Update: As Kari notes in the comments, my statement about endorsements here is a bit off the mark.  Schrader’s been no slouch in this department at all.  My mistake!)

  On the GOP side, voters will choose between ’06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.

There you have it.  May will be a month chock full of races worth watching.  SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.