Congressional races round 2: Utah, Vermont, Virginia

Continuing through the alphabet, and nearing the end 🙂

Utah has 3 representatives: 2 Republicans and a Democrat

The filing deadline was March 17, the primary is June 24

Vermont has 1 representative – a Democrat

Filing deadline is July 21, primary is Sept. 9

Virginia has 11 representatives: 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats

Filing deadline was April 11, primary is June 10

District: UT-01

Location Northwestern UT, including Ogden and part of Salt Lake City

Representative Rob Bishop (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 63-32

2004 margin 68-29

Bush margin 2004 73-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Morgan Bowen, no funding info.  Bishop has $150K COH

Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 8th most Republican (per Cook PVI)

Assessment  Long shot

District: UT-02

Location Most of Salt Lake City, and all of southeastern UT

Representative Jim Matheson (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 59-37

2004 margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 66-31

Notes on opponents In 2004, John Swallow raised $1.5 million to Matheson’s $2 million; in 2006, LaVar Christenson raised $800K to Matheson’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Bill Dew, Donald Ferguson, Kenneth Gray, Merrill Cook, Brian Jenkins, Chris Jacobs (no funding info on any).  Matheson has $850K COH

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 25th most Republican

Assessment Pretty safe

District: UT-03

Location Southwestern UT, including Orem and Provo

Representative Chris Cannon (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 58-32

2004 margin 63-33

Bush margin 2004 77-20

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents A primary and then Bennion Spencer (n funding info). Cannon has only $52K COH and $180K in debt

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), most Republican district in the country

Assessment Cannon could lose a primary, but this is as Republican a district as exists.

District: VT-AL

Location Vermont

Representative Peter Welch (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Notes on opponents 13th most rural (61.8%), 4th most Whites (96.2%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Current opponents None formally announced; Welch has $711K COH

Demographics 13th most rural (61.8%), 4th most White (96.2%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: VA-01

Location Northeast VA, including Fredericksburg and most of the Chesapeake shoreline (on the western side)

Representative Rob Wittman (R)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents A primary, then Keith Hummel (no funding info).

Demographics 13th most veterans (17.7%),

Assessment The primary may be a battle

District: VA-02

Location Virginia Beach and the eastern side of the Chesapeake

Representative Thelma Drake (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin 55-45

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Phil Kellam raised $1.7 million to Drake’s $2.3 million. In 2004, David Ashe raised $400K to Drake’s $800K

Current opponents Glenn Nye, who raised over $250K in the 1st quarter of 2008. On 12/31, Drake had $425K COH

Demographics 3rd most veterans (20.3%)

Assessment  Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 40th most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: VA-03

Location Richmond and Norfolk and more or less contiguous points in between

Representative Bobby Scott (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents In 2004, Winsome Sears raised $200K to Scott’s $500K

Current opponents None

Demographics 53rd most veterans (15.5%), 59th fewest Whites (37.7%), 16th most Blacks (56%), 60th most Democratic

Assessment Free ride

District: VA-04

Location Southeastern VA

Representative Randy Forbes (R)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 76-23

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Andrea Miller (no funding info).  Forbes has $350K COH

Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 38th most Blacks (33.1%), 91st fewest Latinos (2.0%)

Assessment long shot

District: VA-05

Location Central southern VA, north to Charlottesville

Representative  Virgil Goode (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Al Weed ran both times, raising about $500K each time

Current opponents Tom Perriello has raised $600K and has almost all of it.  Goode has raised $438K and has $593K COH (both as of 3/31/08)

Demographics 10th most rural (64.0%), 68th most Blacks (23.9%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable   Superribbie ranks it the 54th most competitive Republican seat

District: VA-06

Location Northwestern VA, bordering WV, including Roanoke

Representative Bob Goodlatte (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 75-12-12 against minor parties

2004 margin essentially unopposed

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Sam Rasoul had raised $131K and had $62K COH on 12/31; Goodlatte had over $1.3 million COH

Demographics 86th most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: VA-07

Location Richmond and points north and west

Representative Eric Cantor (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 75-24

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents In 2006, James Nachman raised $100K to Cantor’s $3.5 million

Current opponents Anita Hartke (no funding info).  Cantor has $555K COH

Demographics 90th highest income (median = $51K), 90th fewest Latinos (2.0%), 86th most Republican

Assessment

District: VA-08

Location DC suburbs

Representative Jim Moran (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 66-31

2004 margin 60-37

Bush margin 2004 35-64

Notes on opponents In 2004, Lisa Marie Cheney raised $300K to Moran’s $1.6 million.  In 2006, Tom O’Donoghue raised $111K to Moran’s $1 million

Current opponents Amit Singh, Mark Ellmore, Dianne Kelly, Basil Mossaides, John Villaneuva…. all of whom either have no funding info, or more debt than COH.  Moran has $700K COH

Demographics 68th highest income (median = $63K), 48th most nonBlack, nonLatino, nonWhites (mostly 9.5% Asians), 77th most Democratic

Assessment

District: VA-09

Location Eastern VA, bordering NC, TN, KY and WV

Representative Rick Boucher (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Notes on opponents In 2004, Kevin Triplett raised $600K to Boucher’s $1.6 million.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Jody Egan (no funding info).  Boucher has $1.2 million COH

Demographics 7th most rural (65.9%), 24th lowest income (median = $30K), 27th most Whites (93.3%), 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment safe

District: VA-10

Location Northern VA, bordering MD and WV

Representative Frank Wolf (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 57-41

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents In 2004, James Socas raised $900K to Wolf’s $1.6 million.  In 2006, Judy Feder raised $1.6 million to Wolf’s $1.8 million

Current opponents Feder is running again, as is Mike Turner and there is a primary opponent, too.  Feder has raised $588K and has $480K COH, Turner has raised $60K and has $30K COH; Wolf has $550K COH.

Demographics 10th highest income (median = $72K), 76th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (6.6% Asian, 1.9% multiracial),

Assessment Slightly vulnerable   Superribbie ranks it the 46th most competitive Republican seat

District: VA-11

Location DC suburbs

Representative Tom Davis (R) who is retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Andrew Hurst raised $300K to Davis $3.6 million

Current opponents The Democrats:

Doug Denneny $31K raised, $14K COH

Gerry Connolly no funding info

Leslie Byrne  $115K raised, $110K COH

Demographics Highest income (median = $80K), 41st most veterans (15.9%), 40th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (10.9% Asian, 2.6% multiracial)

Assessment  Should be a competitive race.   Superribbie ranks it the 10th most competitive Republican seat