House 2008: The Vulnerable 30%

Ranking every House seat by PVI, incumbent or incumbent’s party performance in 2004 and incumbent performance in 2006, I have obtained the following list of House seats in order of vulnerablility.  While this list is in no way definitive, it does provide us with a rough sketch of the 2008 landscape.  New members are in italics, and members who received less than 55% are in bold.  Following the name of each incumbent is her or his district’s PVI, which is explicated here.  My calculations also consider the results of special elections and runoffs.

1 WI-08 (KAGEN-D) R+4
2 KS-02 (BOYDA-D) R+7
3 IN-09 (HILL-D) R+7
4 FL-16 (MAHONEY-D) R+2
5 PA-10 (CARNEY-D) R+8
6 AZ-05 (MITCHELL-D) R+4
7 TX-22 (LAMPSON-D) R+15
8 NY-19 (HALL-D) R+1
9 CT-04 (SHAYS-R) D+5
10 IL-08 (BEAN-D) R+5

11 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ-D) R+4
12 PA-04 (ALTMIRE-D) R+3
13 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND-D) R+3
14 NC-11 (SCHULER-D) R+7
15 WA-08 (REICHERT-R) D+2
16 PA-06 (GERLACH-R) D+2
17 CA-11 (McNERNEY-D) R+3
18 NM-01 (WILSON-R) D+2
19 MN-01 (WALZ-D) R+1
20 NV-03 (PORTER-R) D+1

21 IN-02 (DONNELLY-D) R+4
22 NH-01 (SHEA-PORTER-D) R+0
23 NY-24 (ARCURI-D) R+1
24 KY-03 (YARMUTH-D) D+2
25 AZ-08 (GIFFORDS-D) R+1
26 LA-03 (MELANCON-D) R+5
27 PA-08 (MURPHY-D) D+3
28 GA-12 (BARROW-D) D+2
29 TX-17 (EDWARDS-D) R+18
30 FL-22 (KLEIN-D) D+4

31 NJ-07 (FERGUSON-R) R+1
32 GA-08 (MARSHALL-D) R+8
33 NH-02 (HODES-D) D+3
34 IA-03 (BOSWELL-D) D+1
35 OR-05 (HOOLEY-D) D+1
36 NC-08 (HAYES-R) R+3
37 UT-02 (MATHESON) R+17
38 CO-07 (PERLMUTTER-D) D+2
39 PA-15 (DENT-R) D+2
40 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG-R) R+0

41 OH-18 (SPACE-D) R+6
42 IL-06 (ROSKAM-R) R+3
43 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH-D) R+9
44 FL-13 (BUCHANAN-R) R+4
45 OH-15 (PRYCE-R) R+1
46 MN-06 (BACHMANN-R) R+5
47 IA-02 (LOEBSACK-D) D+7
48 MI-07 (WALBERG-R) R+2
49 AZ-01 (RENZI-R) R+2
50 CO-03 (SALAZAR-D) R+6

51 MI-11 (McCOTTER-R) R+1
52 CT-02 (COURTNEY-D) D+8
53 NY-26 (REYNOLDS-R) R+3
54 NY-29 (KUHL-R) R+5
55 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE-R) R+9
56 CT-05 (MURPHY-D) D+4
57 IL-10 (KIRK-R) D+4
58 VT-AL (WELSH-D) D+9
59 VA-02 (DRAKE-R) R+6
60 PA-07 (SESTAK-D) D+4

61 OH-01 (CHABOT-R) R+1
62 IA-01 (BRALEY-D) D+5
63 NY-13 (FOSSELLA-R) D+1
64 IL-11 (WELLER-R) R+1
65 CA-26 (DREIER-R) R+3
66 CA-50 (BILBRAY-R) R+5
67 SC-05 (SPRATT-D) R+6
68 VA-11 (DAVIS-R) R+1
69 PA-03 (ENGLISH-R) R+2
70 MN-02 (KLEIN-R) R+3

71 SD-AL (HERSETH-D) R+10
72 KS-03 (MOORE-D) R+4
73 OH-02 (SCHMIDT-R) R+13
74 NY-03 (KING-R) D+2
75 KY-04 (DAVIS-R) R+12
76 FL-08 (KELLER-R) R+3
77 IA-04 (LATHAM-R) D+0
78 NJ-05 (GARRETT-R) R+4
79 NY-25 (WALSH-R) D+3
80 MI-08 (ROGERS-R) R+2

81 NJ-03 (SAXTON-R) D+3
82 TX-27 (ORTIZ-D) R+1
83 WY-AL (CUBIN-R) R+19
84 TN-04 (DAVIS-D) R+3
85 IN-07 (CARSON-D) D+9
86 PA-17 (HOLDEN-D) R+7
87 DE-AL (CASTLE-R) D+7
88 AR-02 (SNYDER-D) R+0
89 ND-AL (POMEROY-D) R+13
90 VA-09 (BOUCHER-D) R+7

91 WV-02 (CAPITO-R) R+5
92 OH-12 (TIBERI-R) R+1
93 KY-06 (CHANDLER-D) R+7
94 PA-18 (MURPHY-R) R+2
95 OH-14 (LaTOURETTE-R) R+2
96 TX-32 (SESSIONS-R) R+11
97 NY-01 (BISHOP-D) D+3
98 TX-15 (HINOJOSA-D) D+3
99 FL-15 (WELDON-R) R+3

100 IL-17 (HARE-D) D+5
101 WA-05 (McMORRIS-R) R+5
102 TX-28 (CUELLAR-D) R+1
103 OR-04 (DeFAZIO-D) D+0
104 NJ-02 (LoBIONDO-R) D+4
105 OH-03 (TURNER-R) R+3
106 WI-03 (KIND-D) D+3
107 NC-13 (MILLER-D) D+2
108 NC-02 (ETHERIDGE-D) R+3
109 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE-R) R+11
110 NE-02 (TERRY-R) R+9

111 NV-02 (HELLER-R) R+8
112 NE-01 (FORTENBERRY-R) R+12
113 WA-03 (BAIRD-D) D+0
114 AZ-02 (FRANKS-R) R+9
115 VA-10 (WOLF-R) R+5
116 MS-04 (TAYLOR-D) R+16
117 IL-15 (JOHNSON-R) R+6
118 TN-06 (GORDON-D) R+4
119 AL-03 (ROGERS-R) R+4
120 MI-04 (CAMP-R) R+3

121 MO-04 (SKELTON-D) R+11
122 WV-01 (MOLLOHAN-D) R+6
123 NM-02 (PEARCE-R) R+6
124 NC-05 (FOXX-R) R+15
125 MO-03 (CARNAHAN-D) D+8
126 OR-01 (WU-D) D+6
127 FL-02 (BOYD-D) R+2
128 IL-13 (BIGGERT-R) R+5
129 OH-16 (REGULA-R) R+3
130 CA-45 (BONO-R) R+3
131 MI-06 (UPTON-R) R+2
132 MN-07 (PETERSON-D) R+6

Lists of the most vulnerable Republican and Democratic House incumbents will be posted shortly.