(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)
(Cross-posted on my DKos diary. I originally posted this to my blog on February 4, but I want to get the input of the DKos and SSP communities on the topic. What have you heard in your states? Note that since I posted this, Thad Cochran has delayed his retirement vs. re-election bid decision, and Pete Domenici has made stronger assertions toward a re-election bid. Also, Frank Lautenberg has made his intentions crystal clear.)
We know that the numbers favor Senate Democrats in 2008. 21 GOP vs. 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election gives the GOP a great deal more territory to have to protect. And, as hard as it can be to hold incumbent seats, it’s even harder to retain open seats. This again favors the Democrats, as there are many more Republican Senators on “Retirement Watch.”
DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has said that he has gotten assurances from every Democratic Senator that they are all running for re-election, except for Iowa’s Tom Harkin, who has since demonstrated public steps toward a re-election bid.
Aside from Harkin, I’m not sold that New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg is definitely going to run for re-election, which might not be a bad thing given Lautenberg’s low approval ratings and NJ’s wealth of Democratic Congresspeople waiting for a promotion, not to mention that Lautenberg is the Democrats’ oldest 2008 incumbent by just over a decade.
Also, Delaware’s Joe Biden is looking at the White House, but is hardly a favorite to win the nomination in 2008, meaning that he will likely opt for Senate re-election and have plenty of time to do so.
This leaves only the recovering Tim Johnson of South Dakota as a significant question mark, and even his camp is showing signs, from staffing to fundraising, that a re-election bid could still be on the horizon, health-permitting.
Meanwhile, more than half of the GOP’s 21 incumbents are on the retirement watch spectrum. After spending much of the last decade-plus in the majority party, many of these Senators will find that spending 2007 in the minority will make for a less pleasant work environment. And with many states, like Colorado and Virginia, on a blue-trend, some Republican Senators may opt for retirement rather than risking ending their career on a loss. Beyond that, many Republican Senators are just really old.
1) Colorado’s Wayne Allard: Definitely retiring
2) Maine’s Susan Collins: Is under a self-imposed term-limit-pledge, but is planning a re-election bid. However, if Tom Allen gets in the race and Collins’ broken promise becomes a major issue, with polling going strongly Allen’s way, it’s not inconceivable that Collins would step aside
3) Virginia’s John Warner: Publicly leans one way, then publicly leans the other – definitely considering retirement
4) Alaska’s Ted Stevens: Is 200 years old and threatens to retire every time he doesn’t get his way on a vote – claims to be preparing for a re-election bid, but we’ll see
5) Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Publicly undecided on a re-election bid and says he may not make up his mind until November
6) Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Considering a White House bid, with rumors afoot that he may retire from the Senate regardless of a Presidential bid
7) Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Was considering retiring until he received choice committee assignments – still not publicly confirmed for re-election, though – if he dislikes serving in the minority enough, he may just hang it up
8) New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: not publicly committed to a re-election bid, as rumors of retirement thoughts persist, as well as rumors of a questionable mental state, including wandering the halls of Congress in his pajamas
9) North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: her staff has claimed that she’s planning on re-election, but she has not made any definitive comments; meanwhile, many factors, including her age, her horrible job as NRSC Chair, and her recent hip replacement, suggest that retirement may be a strong possibility – also, polling has the reluctant Mike Easley ahead of Dole; if he got in, maybe she’d prefer to avoid a tough re-election campaign
10) Texas’ John Cornyn: While he is very clearing planning a re-election bid, he is also one of Bush’s top choices (if not Bush’s first choice) for a Supreme Court opening should there be one more before the end of Bush’s term – granted, I’d rather have Cornyn in the Senate running for re-election than enjoying a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court
11) Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe: Rumors exist that he is considering retirement, though this is a rare situation (perhaps akin to NJ’s Lautenberg) where the non-incumbent party might have an easier time beating the incumbent than a replacement (say former Governor Frank Keating)
12) Idaho’s Larry Craig: Another situation of more rumors circulating while Craig waits on a formal public announcement one way or the other
Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)
Though only one retirement is announced, if the stars aligned well enough, the GOP could face a meltdown with more than a half-dozen retirements. While we can’t hang our hats on that many open seats, we can probably expect a couple more to follow Wayne Allard.
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Can I just say that, despite my reluctance to support third party/independent candidates and primary challengers, that I would actively seek the defeat of ANY Democrat who votes for a hypothetical nomination of John Cornyn to the US Supreme Court, even Boxer, Feingold, or Kennedy.
I’ve heard that Rep. Andrews goes for the nomination, even if Lautenberg decides to run again. Anyone have more insight on that situation.
By the way guru, I REALLY enjoy your site. Keep up the awesome work!
It’s intuitive to think that whichever party does well in the Senate one year will have a tougher year six years down the road due to defenses.
For instance, we had a great 2006. A lot of close victories and swing-state wins. But this means we’ll have tough defenses in 2012 in states like Montana, Virginia, Missouri, and Ohio (if the OH-GOP manage to wash off the odor of scandal in time).
However, with the extended list of potential retirees in 2008, even though we should have a very solid 2008, it doesn’t mean we’ll have as tough a 2014. Winning in NH, OR, MN, ME, and even CO will not translate to the kind of tough defenses that MT, VA and MO do. (If we win in 2008 in NC and VA, that’s more along those tougher lines.)
So, even if John Warner, Ted Stevens, Thad Cochran, Pete Domenici and Libby Dole, et. al., don’t retire in 2008, and they manage to win re-election, it just means we’ll see that many more GOP retirements that we can certainly plan for in 2014, offsetting the pressure of freshman Senator defenses that same year.
Personally, I suspect Larry Craig will step down due to declining health and DOMENICI will retire because he is losing it. I ended up voting Domenici because he is older and more like to continue to decline than Larry Craig who may yet rally from his recent health difficulties.
Collins in not going to retire, take her off the board.
John Warner is problematic. I think if Mark Warner takes on John, he retires. But I think Mark is waiting to return to the Governor’s mansion and will sit out the 2008 election cycle. If the Democrats fail to land a top notch nominee he runs. John Warner wants to be a Senator. He just does want to have to campaign for it any longer.
Ironically, I think Ted Stevens is less likely to retire now than he was a year ago. The FBI investigation cast a huge shadow over Stevens plan to hand his Denate seat over to his son. No that the prospect of the son following him into the Senate is dimming I feel Stevens will stick around due to his junkyard dog mentality.
Cochran, Inhofe, Hagel & Alexander: of the four Hagel is quite likely to go away. He is frustrated in the Senate and has a Gov/Pres type mentality to him. No thoughts on Cochran going. Alexander may still go. The fact they bypassed Alexander and went with McConnell bothers Lamar and a committee seat may not be enough of an inducement to stay given his minority status. Inhofe is just plain insane and a reality denier, and anyone trying to understand the man is destined to fail.
Collins is running no matter who runs against her. I believe she’s already explicitly addressed the pledge issue, though if not explicitly, well she’s made it perfectly clear she’s running again and not honoring the pledge.
And Cornyn is not going to the Supreme Court. He wasn’t on the real short list the last two times, and there’s no reason to think he’d be on the short list next time (if there is a next time – and that’s rather unlikely in and of itself). The White House might say they’d put his name into consideration, but they are just being polite. They have no intention of nominating him.
1) I voted for Hagel because I think one way or another he’s done with the Senate. I also think Cochran is a good bet to retire, and Domeinci is iffy. I think Warner will run because Mark Warner would much rather coast back to the governorship than challenge him, Stevens will probably run until he dies, Collins IS running, and Dole will likely run.
2) Texas and Oklahoma are two places where if we can field a good candidate we really do have a chance to pull off an upset. The Washington Post ran an article today about how shamelessly Conryn backs Bush on everything except for immigration (bad news in Texas), and Inhofe is a nutjob who thinks global warming is a hoax. Dont count on Ann Richards to run in Texas though, she’s dead.
…that if Cuellar or Edwards ran against Cornyn, they’d both lose and the GOP would pick up their open seats.
Whatever.
Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Pete Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)
Not a big deal, but Pete Sessions is a Republican congressman from Dallas. Jeff Sessions is the senator from Alabama.
I would not be nearly as hasty in dismissing John Cornyn for the Supreme Court for a number of reasons.
1) Bush is in a much weaker position politically today than he was with either the Roberts or the Alito nominations were made. 2)The Senate is now controlled by the Democrats. By nominating Cornyn (or Hatch) Bush would make it that much harder for the Senate to reject his nominee because they all know one another and oftentimes personal friendships cross party lines. 3) the religious right would find Cornyn acceptable and after the Harriet Meiers fiasco Bush is not going to ignore his masters again. 4) Cornyn and Bush are old Texas buddies and George has already shown he likes to put personal friends onto the Court, given his druthers anyway.
So the prospect of a Cornyn candidacy is not nearly as far fetched as you are claiming.
Elizabeth DOLE announced she is running for re-election. You can take her off the list of fence sitters.