This is gonna be short because I have to get to class (and I’m in Beijing, PRC, so class starts at 5pm PDT).
Cook made the follow changes; 6 are pro-Dem and 9 are pro-Rep. Mostly, the changes seem to be clean-up work on races for which time is running out.
AL-03 Likely Rep->Solid Rep
CA-46 Likely Rep->Solid Rep
CA-50 Likely Rep->Solid Rep
FL-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep
ID-01 Likely Rep->Lean Rep
IL-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep
MD-01 Likely Rep->Lean Rep
NE-02 Likely Rep->Lean Rep
NV-02 Likely Rep->Lean Rep
NY-20 Lean Dem->Likely Dem
OR-05 Lean Dem->Likely Dem
PA-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep
TN-04 Solid Dem->Likely Dem
VA-10 Likely Rep->Solid Rep
WV-02 Lean Rep->Likely Rep
My pick for the biggest surprise move is probably Tennessee’s 4th. I mean, seriously? I don’t know much about this race, but it seems kinda late for that race to just now be getting competitive if he thinks the challenger can pull and upset, especially in such a pro-Dem year.
Your thoughts? Also, can someone please tell me what the hell Cook thinks is going on TN?
Update 9:50 PM PDT,
I did some research, and TN-04’s challenger Monty Lankford seems like quite the joke. He’s lagging significantly in COH ($99872 to Davis’ $413849) and apparently lives in the 7th district. Either Davis’ vote to reelect internals are absolutely awful and Cook has gotten a hold of them, or Cook thinks that Davis’ declarations that he’s likely to run for governor in 2010 could hurt him. Either of those seem possible, but I’m still not sure how Lankford manages to hit 50%.
What are the odds that Rothenberg writes another column slamming Cook for this quixotic choice?
I usually really like his chart, but some of today’s moves are just odd.
WV-2 is my biggest, WTF. I have not seen/heard any evidence it is getting further away. The Byrd ad from this week suggests to me it is now going to be closer than ever before.
I’m not all there in TN-4, AL-3, VA-10, and FL-18. THe rest of the ads seem to make sense, but unless he really wants to narrow it down to races that will flip and eliminate races that will be close and have the outside chance, I’m just not seeing those getting the ax.
I’ll accept that CA-50, CA-46, and PA-18 are now prob off the board, the rest, not so much.
Looking at 2004 and 2006 results, this was a competitive seat. Perhaps the adjustment is in view of McCain’s likely blowout in Tennessee, and the Republicans are more energized. That’s all I can think of.
Any polls?
TN-04 is probably going to be an open seat in 2010. Lincoln Davis has all but announced he’s running for Governor. That seat will be a tough hold in 2010 if it’s open.
The ratings I disagree most are:
AL-05 – Tossup
No way that race is a tossup. It’s easily Leans Dem with Democrat Wayne Parker having a clear edge.
MS-01 – Tossup
This one is also Leans Dem. I suspect with the latest poll showing Childers way shead he will make the move very soon.
GA-12 and NH-02 – Likely Dem
On what planet do those races have a snowball’s chance in hell of flipping with token GOP opponents. Hell, Barrow’s challenger has barely raised $10K the whole cycle.
AK-AL – Tossup
I know Cook doesn’t like to move incumbents past tossup, but this one is screaming for a Leans Dem rating now that Young was re-nominated.
NM-02 – Leans Rep
This one has tossup written all over it.
MI-09 – Leans Rep
Knollenberg is in serious trouble. Te last poll had it very close.
CA-04 – Likely Rep
That one should be Leans Rep, not likely. McClintock has the edge, but not a huge edge.
OH-02 – Likely Rep
I’d never put this seat any worse for us than leans R as long as Schmidt holds it. Plus Wulsin is a serious challenger who nearly beat her in 2006.
WY-AL – Likely Rep
The republicans nominated a very poor candidate to run against a great democratic candidate in Trauner. It hurts that this is a Presidential year, but I can see enough voters in WY splitting ballots on this one.
KY-02 – Likely Rep
I really think people are underestimating Boswell. He’s widely known and respected in the 2nd district. If he could raise money at a better clip I’d be even more optimistic.
WV-02 – Likely Rep
This one should have stayed Leans Rep. Barth seems to be running a fine campaign and the Byrd ad for her should help.
Strange but Charlie Rothenberg went apoplectic about the DCCC listing these races and now Charlie Cook upgrades Republican chances. WV-2 seems like a crazy pick to upgrade. I’ve been in the district three times in the past three months for weekend trips (the Eastern panhandle part) and local Dem signs clearly outnumber Republican ones. Capito has a few; McCain has none (although he’s got em in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia).
Lean Rep seems about right and a big DCCC commitment would switch it to Tossup (note the western part of the district around Charleston has more voters. This is a big sprawling district, indeed.)
i think that race is looking good for Anne Barth at the moment.
I can’t believe that NC-10 is still in the Likely R category whilst he dropps much more competitive races in more democrat-friendly districts with stronger better funded challangers.
As for Stu Rothenberg, I’ve stopped going over to his site he has suddenly turned into the biggest republican hack ever – it’s shocking how noticably biased in favour of the GOP he is, especially Aaron Schock in Il-18 he practicaly cums every time his name’s mentioned.
I thought Dems would do well in Nevada this year, even in the second district until McCain picked Sarah “mother of christ” Palin which is gonna rev up the Crazies in this state, so i was slightly surprised at the upgrading of Jill Derby’s chances.