Questions about Draft Movements, People-Powered Candidates, and 08 Senate races

In every cycle, the DSCC has a handful of targets that it aggressively focuses on, along with any Democratic Senators that might be deemed vulnerable.  However, there are also those races that escape the DSCC’s radar for a little while (or a long while) and are vehemently trumpeted by the netroots and grassroots.  My question is, in those cases of netroots and grassroots joining hands and backing a candidate, how effective do these efforts tend to be?  Or are there not enough examples, due to the young lifespan of the netroots, to really know for sure? 

We all point out (correctly, I might add, as many have praised these efforts, including DSCC Chair Schumer) that Jon Tester and Jim Webb were greatly benefited by the efforts of the netroots/grassroots – “people powered”-candidates, if you will.  So, if 2006 was a starting point, can these types of efforts be effectively spread out to several states?  How early do they need to begin and what tools are most useful in persuading a potential candidate to make the jump?  Or are draft movements even the best way to go about getting an attractive candidate in?  Also, in presidential years it seems that the most well-known possibilities in red states are very cautious about jumping in, so these movements seem to focus on less conventional nominees, am I correct in that observation?  I will run down what I believe to the DSCC’s current top priorities, races that have heir apparents upon the retirement of an incumbent, and then 7 races that I believe would benefit from a candidate in the mold of Senators Tester and Webb.

It seems that the DSCC has five definite targets, at this point in the cycle, although each race has different dynamics going on.

COLORADO – Mark Udall, who seems well on his way to a cleared primary.

MAINE – Tom Allen, is expected to announce shortly and will also have no serious opposition.

NEW HAMPSHIRE – Steve Marchand and Katrina Swett are already announced candidates but could defer if the DSCC is successful in getting Jeanne Shaheen to run.  Either way, this will remain a top pick-up opportunity.

MINNESOTA – Al Franken and Mike Ciresi are in, however, there remains the possibility of an announcement being made by a state legislator.

OREGON – Speaking of draft movements, a very well-known one is underway to convince Pete DeFazio to make the jump.  In the meantime, Steve Novick has announced and, if DeFazio declines, Earl Blumenauer will be the next to be courted by the DSCC.

Those five races seem to be DSCC targets and will probably remain among their top priorities throughout the cycle.

Then there are these next four seats that could possibly become open and, in that event, likely gain heavy attention from the DSCC.

VIRGINIA – Mark Warner has been making waves about getting in and John Warner has been making waves about getting out.

NEW MEXICO – Richardson will either be on the ticket or Sec. of State, Udall or Chavez seem to only jump if it’s indeed open, Homans seems intent on going after Wilson, but Madrid might make the jump.

NEBRASKA – If Hagel is out, Fahey seems to be in.  If Fahey declines, then expect a netroots-driven draft movement to get Scott Kleeb to run.

MISSISSIPPI – It seems a little less likely that Cochran will retire, but Mike Moore goes in if he does.

That leaves what I believe to be a group of seven states that have incumbents that might be more vulnerable than pundits seem to believe and are also ripe for “people powered”-candidates in the mold of a Tester or a Webb. In fact, many of these states already have draft movements underway.  In the other four, I’m seeking information on whether a draft movement would even work in those states and, if so, what potential candidates (but still realistic) would be able to knock off the incumbent.

1)  NORTH CAROLINA – Brad Miller.  A draft movement has been going on for months (led by blue south, I believe) and seems to be gaining much traction.  Miller has recently stated having serious interest in the race.

2)  ALABAMA – Ron Sparks.  Sparks was mentioned in Schumer’s advice thread at dKos and has been the center of much attention since.  He also has shown interest and will make an announcement,  regarding his decision, soon.

3)  TEXAS – Rick Noriega.  Also a subject of netroots support.  The Texas House is currently in session, so, understandably, no announcement is expected until after May, from any Texas legislators.

Then there are the four states that a populist candidate could make it a competitive election.

4)  OKLAHOMA – The big names (Henry, Edmondson, Boren) have been contacted and declined, for various reasons.  State Senator Andrew Rice would be a great prospect for a draft movement.  Are there any indications he’s open to it?

5)  TENNESSE – Bredesen either thinks he’s on someone’s VP list, or doesn’t want to leave his office open to the GOP Senate Pres.  If Ford doesn’t jump in, would there be any chance of persuading Nashville mayor Bill Purcell to get in?  Are there any other Tennessee Dems that have been under the radar, but would be great for this race?

6)  KENTUCKY – Any progress on the U.S. Senate race will probably have to wait until the gubernatorial primary is over.  Who do Kentuckians want to see in this race?  Is Owen really the assumed nominee?

7)  GEORGIA – After Saxby’s distasteful 02 campaign, it would seem that this race would be getting more attention.  Anyone heard of attorney Jim Butler’s plans?

Others:
IDAHO – Larry LaRocco is our nominee, whether Craig is the nominee or not.

ALASKA – I wish Mark Begich could be persuaded to make this race, even if just for the added benefits of higher name ID for the 2010 race against Lisa Murkowski.

WYOMING, KANSAS, and SOUTH CAROLINA – No clue on any of these three.  Trauner might go for a House rematch, Sebelius won’t go for it, and I have no real knowledge about SC politics, so there’s that, lol.

So, what say you?  Are the seven races I identified actual possibilities?  Are there potential candidates that have been showing any level of interest, not just being mentioned as pipe dreams?  I know that we should all be backing our candidates, even if they are already going to have the full-backing of the DSCC, but it seems that if the more “longshot” of races were the ones that the grassroots and netroots spent most of their attention on, that would benefit all involved and expand our playing field.

I know I haven’t said anything that hasn’t already been touched upon, but I am just really interested in how candidates are drafted into the tougher races and how much success such efforts are met with.

(Also, this is my first diary, so pardon the length and lack of proper editing skills, lol.)