http://www.publicpolicypolling…
Some of the others poll better but even Beebe loses to Boozman.
Lincoln 33
Boozman 56
Lincoln 35
Baker 50
Ross 37
Boozman 48
Ross 39
Baker 39
Halter 30
Boozman 53
Halter 34
Baker 45
Clark 36
Boozman 51
Clark 39
Baker 45
Beebe 43
Boozman 44
Beebe 46
Baker 38
For all you purists Lincoln’s problems are certainly not because she isn’t liberal enough. A majority of Arkansas voters say she is too liberal.
The only silver lining is that these other Dems all have high “don’t knows” in terms of favorability but then so do both Boozman and Baker. I think we have to face facts – the state wants a Republican senator.
NV, just barely below it.
PA, CO, DE – Fighting chances and fleeting.
IL – The line.
If 2010 is insider/outsider election then we got a shot in MO. Maybe we can still swing something in OH if we get the messaging right.
Lincoln may have a base problem, but the base is irrelevant here. She could win the base and still lose big.
Write Arkansas off.
That whoring to the right sure did help her, didn’t it? Another ConDem brought down (likely) by the monster they’ve largely created. Hopefully, either someone worth fighting for that can hopefully change the game will enter the race. If both of those fail to happen, hopefully the DSCC is smart enough not to waste money here.
Lincoln should just quit while she’s at it and not suffer the loss.
All 4 of these states gave its electoral votes to Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but since then they have become Republican states and have voted for Bush and McCain. Back in 1992, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee and Kentucky had 7 Democratic Senators, but now its down to 3. It’s only a matter of time until the Republicans gain the remaining 3 unless something big happens for these states’ Democratic parties. Pryor and Landrieu will be endangered in 2014.
I think you will see a Republican win this race, although nothing should be cast in stone. The Southern realignment is still taking place. We will most likely lose 2 House seats in Tennessee and 2 house seats in Arkansas this election year. LA-03 will most likely elect a Republican, too. We could lose AL-02, MS-01, and several seats in FL, GA, SC, NC, and VA in the next few election cycles, but the Dems still have strength in a lot of these areas on a local front.
Look at the crosstabs-they have Beebe at a 52 percent with every other poll having him anywhere between 70 and 80. It has Boozman’s and Baker’s approval rating as, overwhelmingly, don’t know, and they’re crushing. Doesn’t make any sense. My bet is it comes down to the methodology. Instead of a human being asking questions on the other end, respondents had a recording asking them to push 1, 2, and 3 for yes, no, and don’t know-it’s possible that people who just rushed through is skewed the results big time on this.
In this level of support very few republicans run for senate against a strong democrat. Pence poll better against Bayh than Boozman against Beebe and Pence get out the race.
The alone democrat what can win this race is M Beebe.
It’s been said here before, correctly IMO, that Arkansas staved off the natural move to the GOP simply because of the Clinton Presidency.
But it’s a solidly conservative state, and naturally should move to the GOP over time. The Obama Presidency has accelerated the inevitable. Those white conservative Arkansans who’ve voted for Democrats for a lifetime now see a liberal black guy from Chicago with a funny name to boot as THE President, and they just can’t come to terms with it.
It makes it even worse that Obama upset their favorite daughter Hillary on the way to getting there. That’s the unique exacerbating factor in Arkansas that combines with the more common Southern state factors of ideology and race.
I’m particularly sad to see Vic Snyder go from the AR delegation. He’s a fantastic guy and a liberal who still managed to win, until now when he realized he was toast. I met him once in a House office building, he was the most humble guy.
I think we have to be philosophical and realize we were going to lose badly here this year even if the national environment were better. Obama’s 59-38 defeat here set a record for Democratic nominee performance gap (minus-15) between the state and the nation. Even if Obama’s approval is at, say, 55% approaching the midterms, he’ll be far under water in Arkansas, and we’re going to suffer badly in federal races there.
My sympathy to Arkansas Democrats, it sucks to be on the losing end of this kind of trend. It was hard enough in Virginia last fall to get thumped like we did, but at least it wasn’t part of a right-leaning trend, just a horrifically bad flag-bearer at the top of the ticket.