CA Redistricting: 7 Dem pickups

This is a redistricting plan based on geographical compactness, population deviation of less than 5,000, and communities of interest (except for one seat).  VRA is ignored, as are current residences of Reps. (There’s a deep bench in California).

CA-1:blue

California deserves a real NorCal district with a representative from the North Coast.  At the same time, neutralizing highly Republican, quickly growing Redding is a good idea.  Combining liberal Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, and more rural Sonoma Counties with moderate Del Norte, Siskiyou, and Trinity, as well as more conservative Tehama and Shasta creates a D+3 district, from an older D+14 one, which in this part of the country should be likely Dem.  It’s a very, very rural district, with Redding as the population center, although the areas lacks Democrats, and a liberal like Mike Thompson, who lives out of the district, could still win here.  80% White and 11% Hispanic, this district is actually highly similar to Oregon in race and partisan breakdown.  

CA-2: green

So what’s the parallel to the Democratic 1st?  A Republican 2nd, much of McClintock and Herger’s old districts, either could run here.  Herger is more likely to retire due to age, so I’ll give it to McClintock as the old CA-4, remaining R+9.  From very conservative rugged territory in Modoc, Lassen, Plumas and Sierra Counties, as well as Nevada and Placer, the district goes west into the Valley foothills in Butte, taking in Paradise and Oroville, as well as E. Tehama and all of Yuba.  Sacramento Suburbs in the district include Auburn, Rocklin, Loomis, and Roseville.  The North Tahoe area, including Truckee, is also included.  81% White, 10% Hispanic.

CA-3: purple

This is actually Wally Herger’s CA-2, gone from R+10 to D+5.  Herger’s home city of Chico, a college town, is kept along with rural Colusa, Sutter, and Glenn.  However, adding in Thompson’s old Yolo Co., with college town Davis and West Sacramento, a small piece of Lungren’s old 3rd, and some of N. Sacramento from Matsui’s 5th gives this district the Democratic lean we desire.  Lincoln from the old 4th is also in the district.  61% White, 21% Hispanic, and a Democratic PICKUP  D+1

CA-4: red

A tad of Sacramento, suburbs, exurbs, and Tahoe.  I drive from one end of the district to the other every year to go skiing.  This is Lungren’s old 3rd.  Part of Sacramento from the 5th, Sac. Suburbs from like Folsom and Citrus Hts from Lungren’s old 3rd, and El Dorado Co., home of fast growing exurbs and mountainous Tahoe area, from the old 4th.  Obama won by 2,000 votes, so it’s R+3, but with Lungren’s vulnerability in a similar district, also an R+3, it’s still a Toss Up, due to the addition of unfamiliar territory and higher turnout in 2012.  Lungren doesn’t even live in it.  77% White, 10% Hispanic. D+1.5

CA-5: yellow

This old Matsui D+18 Sacramento district is now a much of Sacramento Co. D+10 district, although still maj-min. at 49W, 18H, 15A, 12B.  Lungren actually lives here, I believe, but Matsui’s still safe.  Rural Amador, Calaveras, and Alpine Cos. are also in this district, from Lungren’s old district.

CA-6: turqoise

Yes, it’s new, and it combines Bay Area with Central Valley.  However, Fairfield and Vacaville are arguably as much Sacramento as they are Bay Area.  The N. Half of Solano, from Garamendi and Miller’s districts, contains these cities.  A piece of Lungren’s is in here, too.  Half of Stockton is from Cardoza’s (no racial gerrymandering here).  The rest: other half of Stockton, Lodi, and rural areas, comes from Garamendi’s D+13 district, making his new one D+4, which should still be Likely D, Lean D in open years.  47W, 27H, 12A.  

CA-7: gray

So what’s in Mike Thompson’s new district, if he runs where he actually resides?  Well, liberal Bay Area Napa Co. from the 1st, Benicia (a former state capital), Vallejo, and Suisun City in the North Bay, which are from Miller and Garamendi’s districts, Miller’s Pittsburg, and Garamendi’s Antioch and Oakley.  McNerney’s Brentwood and Tracy (a Central Valley city attached to the old 11th to help Pombo, although it now leans left) finishes up the district.  McNerney could run here, as he’s out of a district, his old D+2 becoming D+14.  52W, 22H, 11A, 10B.  

CA-8: periwinkle

There’s nothing we can do to Lynn Woolsey’s district to make it closer to D+5 or so, so this old D+24 district remains the same PVI.  Gone are the coastal areas of Sonoma, adding the city of Sonoma from the old 1st and the North Beach, Marina, and Presidio of San Francisco from Pelosi’s old 8th.  75W, 13H

CA-9: light blue

Pelosi’s D+34 8th is now the D+33 9th, but little changes, losing a piece of SF and adding the SW part instead.  40W, 32A, 15H.

CA-10: pink

This is Speier’s district.  It goes from D+22 to D+21, losing nearly all of its SF portion, keeping San Mateo Co., and adding the old San Mateo Co. portions of Eshoo’s district: Half Moon Bay, Woodside, Menlo Park, Atherton, Redwood City, and Portola Valley.  50W (maj-min.), 22A, 20H.

CA-11: green

Eshoo gets bumped up three spots, to the 11th district, and moving from D+21 to D+20.  She keeps East Palo Alto from San Mateo Co. and all of her Santa Clara Co. portion (Saratoga, my hometown of Los Altos, Mtn View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale) and adds Santa Clara, Cupertino, Los Gatos, and part of San Jose from Honda’s district.  54W, 26A, 13H

CA-12: blue

Honda picks up a lot more of San Jose and keeps Campbell and Gilroy while adding Morgan Hill from McNerney’s district (what a gerrymander that one was).  From D+16 to D+15.  47W, 27H, 19A

CA-13: salmon

Lofgren loses a lot of her old San Jose territory in her old D+17 district to Honda, and changes her district by adding Milpitas from Honda’s, hilly areas from McNerney, as well as his Dublin and Pleasanton, and Stark’s Newark.  It’s now D+14 and 37W, 28H, 27A.  

CA-14: puke

Pete Stark moves northward as well (all this from extending CA-1 southward), from his old, cozy, D+22 to his new, still Fremont/Union City/Hayward/San Leandro-based, but adding Lee’s S. Oakland and Castro Valley, for a now cozier D+26 district, 31W, 24A, 24H, 16B.

CA-15: orange

Barbara Lee’s district, previously at D+36, doesn’t have to be VRA, and so she now has her old N. Oakland and Berkeley along with Stark’s Alameda and Miller’s Richmond for a still D+36, but now 38W, 21B, 19A, 17H district.

CA-16: bright green

Miller is relocated entirely South of the Bay, keeping Martinez and Concord and adding Garamendi’s Walnut Creek, Lafayette, and Pleasant Hill and McNerney’s San Ramon and Danville.  It then goes into the valley, like McNerney’s old district (Miller could retire with McNerney running here)to get Manteca, Lathrop, and Ripon,from McNerney and Radanovich’s districts, Republican areas that can be neutralized here.  From D+19 to D+10.  70W, 14H, 10A.

CA-17: dark purple

Radanovich’s replacement will be safe here, the district goes from R+7 to R+11, keeping Oakdale, Yosemite, and Madera Co. and adding Merced and Atwater from Cardoza’s district.  56W, 33H.

CA-18: yellow

Devin Nunes is still fine here, but it goes from R+11 to R+9.  It keeps Tulare, Porterville, Clovis, and Visalia while adding N. Fresno from Radanovich, as well as rural areas from Costa.  45H, 45W.

CA-19: forest green

This is Cardoza’ new district; he won’t be as happy, but that’s the price to pay for making stuff look nice. From D+7 to D+2 isn’t terrible, and at least Cardoza’ a Blue Dog, but still, it likely would be Lean D instead of Safe D, or something like that.  He keeps Modesto, Ceres, and Los Banos, adds Turlock from Radanovich, and takes part of Costa and Radanovich’s Fresno.  48W, 38H.  Plus, making Cardoza vulnerable will look bipartisan. D+1 again.

CA-20: pink

Jim Costa still very safe, however.  Right now, he’s D+7, it jumps to D+16 with the one super-gerrymandered district.  To help make SoCal more Democratic, Santa Cruz Co and rural San Benito Co are combined with the Central Valley, namely S. Fresno, Hanford, and rural areas from his old district.  I’m sorry.  42W, 42H.

CA-21: maroon

Don’t worry, I didn’t forget about Sam Farr, it’s just that his district is really Central California now.  He keeps Monterey Co. but adds more conservative Atascadero, Paso Robles, and Taft from McCarthy and Wasco, Delano, and Shafter from Costa, going from D+20 to D+7.  48W, 40H.



CA-22: brown

So there have to be two Republican Central Valley districts, so here’s McCarthy’s.  He keeps Bakersfield and California City, but now adds some of N. LA Co.  His district doesn’t really change much, though, from R+15 (in California!) to R+13.  54W, 33H.

CA-23: light blue

Alright, Lois Capps, how well can you poll more than 2 miles inland?  Well, it seems she can do OK.  Adding some of McCarthy’s inland SLO Co. and Gallegly’s inland SB and Ventura Cos. to her own coastal cities like Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, and Ventura, she goes from D+14 to D+7, not a huge change. 63W, 28H.

CA-24: deep purple

Elton Gallegly has a shot, but it just went from R+2 to D+2.  He’ll probably retire, leaving it at Lean Dem.  He keeps Moorpark, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, and Camarillo, and adds Oxnard from Capps’ district and Malibu from Waxman’s.  56W, 33H.  This is the third toss up. D+1.5

CA-25: rose

This is Buck McKeon’s old district, but he’ll be retiring.  From R+3 to D+6, this district, which Brad Sherman will now probably run in, contains parts of Waxman, Sherman, and Berman’s LA, along with Santa Clarita from McKeon’s old district.  He’s gone.  PICKUP  59W, 26H. D+2.5

CA-26: gray

This is an open district, it’s what Sherman’s district got moved to.  From D+14 to D+8, that is.  Some Democrat will win.  It contains parts of Berman and Sherman’s LA, Dreier’s La Canada Flintridge, and Lancaster and Palmdale from McKeon.  48H, 33W.  

CA-27: bright green

Howard Berman has no issues here.  Right now, he has a D+24, but this will change him to a D+18.  No alarm.  Berman, Sherman, and Waxman’s LA districts are all represented, along with Schiff’s Burbank.  48W, 35H.

CA-28: light purple

This is David Dreier’s old R+1 district.  Now it’s a Democrat’s D+8 district.  How fun.  Take Pasadena, Alhambra, San Gabriel, and Temple from Schiff, add Dreier’s San Marino, Arcadia, Sierra Madre, Bradbury, Monrovia, Glendora, San Dimas, and La Verne, and then include Chu’s Irwindale, Azusa, and Duarte, and we’ve got a 38W, 31H, 21A Safe Dem district from Dreier’s old Lean R one. PICKUP D+3.5

CA-29: ugly green

Adam Schiff gets to keep his number, and his district, somewhat.  From D+16 to D+23, this actually helps him.  He keeps Glendale and South Pasadena and adds LA from Becerra and Berman.  38W, 37H, 16A.

CA-30: salmon

Henry Waxman stays very similar, from D+18 to D+26, but safe either way.  He keeps Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, and Hollywood, and adds Harman’s and Waters’s pieces of LA and Culver City from Watson.  53W, 19H, 13B, 10A.

CA-31: pale yellow

I don’t think Jane Harman’s going to keep her district.  Maxine Waters will primary her out.  Blue Dog Harman goes from a manageable D+12 to D+26.  Only a minority Blue Dog could survive here.  El Segundo and Beach Areas stay in the district, and Waters’s Gardena, Inglewood, Hawthorne, Lawndale, and a slice of L.A.  39H, 33B, 18W.

CA-32: orange

Xavier Becerra goes from D+28 to D+29.  Does it matter? All L.A., 53H, 17W, 16A, 11B.

CA-33: blue

This is the new district created by merging Harman and Waters.  Harman could technically run here (although I consider it Waters’s old district), it went from D+32 to D+14, much like Harman’s old one.  Torrance, Lomita, and a bit of LA are from her old district, while Richardson’s Compton, Carson, and the hills areas are in as well.  I think Harman would run, but hopefully lose in the primary.  38H, 28W, 16B, 15A.  

CA-34: green

Lucille Roybal-Allard’s district rises from D+23 to D+36.  It has LA, Bell, Vernon, and Huntington Park.  It’s 79%H, 15%B, and only 2% White!!!! She’s safe.

CA-35: purple

Napolitano’s old district was D+19.  Her new one is only D+14.  It’s got a lot of Eastern LA Co.  60H, 19W,11A.

CA-36: orange

Ed Royce won’t enjoy this.  That’s good for us.  He’s used to R+6.  He now has D+7.  Good luck, Mr. Royce.  Have a fun retirement.  Royce keeps Fullerton, adds Miller’s Brea, La Habra,  and Whittier, and then takes in Pico Rivera, Montebello, and Santa Fe Springs from Linda Sanchez.  55H, 27W, 14A.  Does any Republican represent a district that’s 27% White? PICKUP D+4.5

CA-37: bright blue

Judy Chu moves a bit, not too much.  D+16 to D+17.  Keeps Monterey Park, Rosemead, South El Monte, Baldwin Park, W. Covina, and Covina.  Adds La Puente from Napolitano.  64H, 20A, 12W.

CA-38: light greenish

While we’re getting rid of OC Republicans, let’s get rid of the only one from LA County: Gary Miller.  Miller goes from R+8 to D+6 in this district.  He keeps Diamond Bar, Chino, Chino Hills, and part of Yorba Linda.  He adds Walnut, Montclair, and Claremont from Dreier, Pomona from Napolitano, and Ontario from Baca.  And here we have 46H, 30W, 13A.  And no more Gary Miller. PICKUP D+5.5

CA-39: pale

Keep the most endangered Republican safe.  Make them happy.  Ken Calvert goes from R+3 to R+10.  He’ll love this plan.  He keeps Corona and Norco and adds Tustin from Campbell, Orange and Villa Park from Miller, and there: 56W, 28H.

CA-40: maroonish

Laura Richardson started at D+28.  Now she’s at D+7.  But it’s ok.  She keeps about a third of Long Beach and adds Lakewood from Linda Sanchez, Buena Park and Cypress from Royce, and most of Anaheim from Loretta Sanchez.  41H, 32W, 15A.

CA-41: grayish-blue

So, I really wanted to get rid of Rohrabacher.  I tried.  Best I can get while keeping beach communities together is this D+3.  He currently has R+5. I’d say he’s a toss-up.  He takes Richardson’s Long Beach and Royce’s Los Alamitos adds it to his own Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, and Costa Mesa.  54W, 27H, 10A. D+6

CA-42: bright green

Loretta Sanchez’s district.  Keeps Garden Grove and Santa Ana, adds Westminster and Fountain Valley from Ol’ Dana, and Stanton from Royce.  From D+8 to D+0, but I think she can hold on. 51H, 24W, 20A.  D+5.5

CA-43: pink

John Campbell currently resides in an R+3 district, and it changes to an R+4, still a Safe Republican OC district (the only one, unless you count Rohrabacher as safe).  He keeps Irvine, Dana Pt., and the Lagunas while Calvert’s Mission Viejo.  71W, 13A, 12H.

CA-44: magenta

Darrell Issa’s district’s moved here, and he doesn’t live in it.  However, he’s young, popular, and wealthy, so he’d probably still run.  It goes from R+8 to R+12.  He keeps Lake Elsinore and Temecula and adds San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente from Calvert, Murrieta, Hemet, and La Quinta from Bono Mack, and a lot of rural, desert-y area.  71W, 21H.

CA-45: light blue

Jerry Lewis, the Republicans’ Appropriations (earmarks) leader, moves from R+9 to R+1, a tossup (lean R with incumbency).  So I can say D+6 total.  He takes Baca’s San Bernardino and Colton and adds his own Highland, Redlands, Yucaipa, Calimesa, Banning, Beaumont, and San Jacinto.  48W, 34H.

CA-46: orange

Linda Sanchez’s D+13 LA Area district becomes a D+8 Inland Empire District.  It will have a new, probably Hispanic, representative.  It takes Riverside from Calvert, Perris from Issa, and Moreno Valley from Bono Mack.  40H, 39W, 11B

CA-47: pale purple

So Joe Baca goes from D+16 to D+6, but he’s still safe.  He keeps Fontana, Rialto, and Colton, and adds Rancho Cucamonga and Upland from Dreier.  46H, 36W, 10B

CA-48: light orange

Most redistricting plans I’ve seen take out Bono Mack, but I’d rather remove Duncan Hunter and keep Bono Mack safe.  From R+1 to R+7 she goes.  She keeps only Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Rancho Mirage, Palm Desert, and Indian Wells, while adding much of Lewis’s old district in Desert Hot Springs, Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms, Hesperia, Apple Valley, and Needles.  She also takes Barstow, Victorville, and Adelanto from McKeon. 62W, 26H.

CA-49: earthy red

I’m not sure who’s district this changes to update: it’s Watson’s, but it was certainly an R leaning district before.  Now it’s D+4.  So that’s 6 pickups.  By taking Indio, Coachella, and all of rural Riverside Co. in the East from Bono Mack, along with Blythe, and combining it with Filner’s Imperial Co., Chula Vista, and the border part of San Diego, and then taking rural areas from Hunter and Issa, you’ve got a pretty safe district.  60H, 27W.

CA-50: light blue

Brian Bilbray is still safe, from R+1 to R+7.  He takes Issa’s Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, and Vista and adds his own Carlsbad, San Marcos, and Escondido.  58W, 30H.

CA-51: brown

I think we can win a D+3, especially since it came from Hunter’s old R+8 and he doesn’t live in it.  7 pickups for us.  Take Bilbray’s Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar, UC San Diego, and Hunter’s N. Poway, and add Davis’s La Jolla and W. San Diego, and we’re safe.  71W, 14A, 10H.

CA-52: green

Susan Davis gets a D+6 district, rather than D+16.  She takes part of Poway, E. San Diego, and El Cajon from Hunter, along with his home rural area and La Mesa and adds some of her own San Diego.  60W, 20H

CA-53: white

The last one.  Bob Filner goes from D+11 to D+5.  It has his old S. San Diego area and Davis’s area plus her Coronado.  40W, 34H, 11B, 11A.

There it is, I’m done.