Here are the lists of my predictions compared with the actual results. My predictions were mixed in their DEM/GOP bias, but the House was way more DEM biased. I guess turnout was the key in these races. Seats that changed parties are in boldface.
GOVERNOR
| State |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
| Alabama |
R+15.3 |
R+15.8 |
D+0.5 |
| Alaska |
R+15.7 |
R+20.6 |
D+4.9 |
| Arizona |
R+15.0 |
R+13.5 |
R+1.5 |
| Arkansas |
D+25.7 |
D+30.9 |
R+5.2 |
| California |
D+14.3 |
D+11.4 |
D+2.9 |
| Colorado |
D+3.7 |
D+13.9 |
R+10.2 |
| Connecticut |
D+5.7 |
D+0.7 |
D+5.0 |
| Florida |
D+1.7 |
R+1.2 |
D+2.9 |
| Georgia |
R+7.7 |
R+9.8 |
D+2.1 |
| Hawaii |
D+5.0 |
D+17.1 |
R+12.1 |
| Idaho |
R+22.0 |
R+26.2 |
D+4.2 |
| Illinois |
R+4.7 |
D+0.5 |
R+5.2 |
| Iowa |
R+10.5 |
R+9.7 |
R+0.8 |
| Kansas |
R+27.0 |
R+31.3 |
D+4.3 |
| Maine |
R+11.3 |
R+1.8 |
R+9.5 |
| Maryland |
D+12.7 |
D+13.5 |
R+0.8 |
| Massachusetts |
D+2.7 |
D+6.3 |
R+3.6 |
| Michigan |
R+16.7 |
R+18.2 |
D+1.5 |
| Minnesota |
D+1.3 |
D+0.5 |
D+0.8 |
| Nebraska |
R+42.0 |
R+48.6 |
D+6.6 |
| Nevada |
R+15.7 |
R+11.8 |
R+3.9 |
| New Hampshire |
D+8.3 |
D+7.5 |
D+0.8 |
| New Mexico |
R+8.3 |
R+7.2 |
R+1.1 |
| New York |
D+22.0 |
D+27.3 |
R+5.3 |
| Ohio |
R+1.0 |
R+2.7 |
D+1.7 |
| Oklahoma |
R+18.5 |
R+20.2 |
D+1.7 |
| Oregon |
D+1.7 |
D+1.1 |
D+0.6 |
| Pennsylvania |
R+9.0 |
R+9.0 |
Spot-on |
| Rhode Island |
I+8.0 |
I+2.5 |
I+5.5 |
| South Carolina |
R+8.3 |
R+4.3 |
R+4.0 |
| South Dakota |
R+13.7 |
R+23.0 |
D+9.3 |
| Tennessee |
R+28.0 |
R+31.9 |
D+3.9 |
| Texas |
R+1.0 |
R+12.8 |
D+11.8 |
| Utah |
R+25.3 |
R+32.4 |
D+7.1 |
| Vermont |
D+2.0 |
D+1.7 |
D+0.3 |
| Wisconsin |
R+8.7 |
R+5.7 |
R+3.0 |
| Wyoming |
R+36.0 |
R+46.5 |
D+10.5 |
SENATE
| State |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
| Alabama |
R+28.0 |
R+30.6 |
D+2.6 |
| Alaska |
D+0.7 |
R+4.8 |
D+5.5 |
| Arizona |
R+23.0 |
R+24.5 |
D+1.5 |
| Arkansas |
R+19.7 |
R+21.1 |
D+1.4 |
| California |
D+6.7 |
D+9.6 |
R+2.9 |
| Colorado |
R+1.0 |
D+0.9 |
R+1.9 |
| Connecticut |
D+8.0 |
D+11.8 |
R+3.8 |
| Delaware |
D+14.0 |
D+16.6 |
R+2.6 |
| Florida |
R+16.0 |
R+19.2 |
D+3.2 |
| Georgia |
R+25.7 |
R+18.9 |
R+6.8 |
| Hawaii |
D+24.5 |
D+53.2 |
R+28.7 |
| Idaho |
R+44.0 |
R+46.1 |
D+2.1 |
| Illinois |
R+4.3 |
R+1.9 |
R+2.4 |
| Indiana |
R+10.3 |
R+18.3 |
D+8.0 |
| Iowa |
R+31.0 |
R+31.3 |
D+0.3 |
| Kansas |
R+40.0 |
R+44.1 |
D+4.1 |
| Kentucky |
R+3.2 |
R+11.6 |
D+8.4 |
| Louisiana |
R+5.9 |
R+18.9 |
D+13.0 |
| Maryland |
D+26.7 |
D+25.5 |
D+1.2 |
| Missouri |
D+0.7 |
R+13.7 |
D+14.4 |
| Nevada |
D+0.7 |
D+5.6 |
R+4.9 |
| New Hampshire |
R+15.0 |
R+23.5 |
D+8.5 |
| New York A |
D+28.7 |
D+32.4 |
R+3.7 |
| New York B |
D+18.3 |
D+26.2 |
R+7.9 |
| North Carolina |
R+12.3 |
R+12.1 |
R+0.2 |
| North Dakota |
R+47.0 |
R+54.0 |
D+7.0 |
| Ohio |
R+9.8 |
R+18.3 |
D+8.5 |
| Oklahoma |
R+40.0 |
R+44.4 |
D+4.4 |
| Oregon |
D+15.3 |
D+17.8 |
R+2.5 |
| Pennsylvania |
R+4.7 |
R+2.0 |
R+2.7 |
| South Carolina |
R+42.0 |
R+34.2 |
R+7.8 |
| Utah |
R+25.3 |
R+28.8 |
D+3.5 |
| Vermont |
D+35.0 |
D+33.5 |
D+1.5 |
| Washington |
D+1.9 |
D+4.8 |
R+2.9 |
| West Virginia |
D+1.3 |
D+10.1 |
R+8.8 |
| Wisconsin |
R+7.7 |
R+4.9 |
R+2.8 |
HOUSE
| District |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
| AL-02 |
D+3.8 |
R+2.6 |
D+6.4 |
| AZ-01 |
R+4.0 |
R+6.0 |
D+2.0 |
| AZ-03 |
D+1.2 |
R+11.1 |
D+12.3 |
| AZ-05 |
R+0.7 |
R+8.8 |
D+8.1 |
| AZ-07 |
D+4.1 |
D+6.0 |
R+1.9 |
| AZ-08 |
D+6.1 |
D+1.5 |
D+4.6 |
| AR-01 |
R+5.6 |
R+8.3 |
D+2.7 |
| AR-02 |
R+11.0 |
R+19.6 |
D+8.6 |
| CA-03 |
R+3.8 |
R+6.9 |
D+3.1 |
| CA-11 |
D+2.8 |
D+1.1 |
D+1.7 |
| CA-18 |
D+10.8 |
D+17.0 |
R+6.2 |
| CA-20 |
D+2.9 |
D+3.4 |
R+0.5 |
| CA-44 |
R+13.2 |
R+11.2 |
R+2.0 |
| CA-45 |
R+15.0 |
R+9.4 |
R+5.6 |
| CA-47 |
D+8.3 |
D+13.7 |
R+5.4 |
| CO-03 |
D+1.3 |
R+4.3 |
D+5.6 |
| CO-04 |
R+3.6 |
R+11.1 |
D+7.5 |
| CT-04 |
D+2.4 |
D+6.2 |
R+3.8 |
| CT-05 |
D+4.2 |
D+8.2 |
R+4.0 |
| DE-AL |
D+9.8 |
D+15.8 |
R+6.0 |
| FL-02 |
R+9.3 |
R+12.2 |
D+2.9 |
| FL-08 |
R+3.3 |
R+17.9 |
D+14.6 |
| FL-22 |
D+0.9 |
R+8.8 |
D+9.7 |
| FL-24 |
R+6.3 |
R+19.3 |
D+13.0 |
| FL-25 |
R+3.0 |
R+9.6 |
D+6.6 |
| GA-02 |
D+2.7 |
R+2.8 |
D+5.5 |
| GA-08 |
R+12.5 |
R+5.4 |
R+7.1 |
| HI-01 |
D+2.2 |
D+6.4 |
R+4.2 |
| ID-01 |
D+2.4 |
R+9.7 |
D+12.1 |
| IL-08 |
D+20.0* |
R+0.2 |
D+20.2 |
| IL-10 |
D+7.6 |
R+2.2 |
D+9.8 |
| IL-11 |
R+5.1 |
R+14.8 |
D+9.7 |
| IL-14 |
R+0.3 |
R+6.3 |
D+6.0 |
| IL-17 |
R+2.6 |
R+9.6 |
D+7.0 |
| IN-02 |
D+4.4 |
D+1.4 |
D+3.0 |
| IN-08 |
R+8.8 |
R+20.2 |
D+11.4 |
| IN-09 |
D+0.5 |
R+10 |
D+10.5 |
| IA-01 |
D+10.0 |
D+2.0 |
D+8.0 |
| IA-02 |
D+8.8 |
D+5.1 |
D+3.7 |
| IA-03 |
D+8.1 |
D+4.2 |
D+3.9 |
| KS-03 |
R+10.0 |
R+19.8 |
D+9.8 |
| KY-03 |
D+10.5 |
D+10.7 |
R+0.2 |
| KY-06 |
D+3.7 |
D+0.3 |
D+3.4 |
| LA-02 |
D+11.8 |
D+31.1 |
R+19.3 |
| LA-03 |
R+12.3 |
R+27.6 |
D+15.3 |
| ME-01 |
D+12.4 |
D+13.6 |
R+1.2 |
| MD-01 |
R+4.9 |
R+12.1 |
D+7.2 |
| MA-10 |
D+2.6 |
D+4.5 |
R+1.9 |
| MI-01 |
R+2.7 |
R+11 |
D+8.3 |
| MI-07 |
D+0.4 |
R+4.8 |
D+5.2 |
| MI-09 |
D+3.9 |
D+2.6 |
D+1.3 |
| MN-01 |
D+10.4 |
D+4.2 |
D+6.2 |
| MN-08 |
D+4.9 |
R+1.6 |
D+6.5 |
| MS-01 |
D+0.9 |
R+14.5 |
D+15.4 |
| MS-04 |
D+2.7 |
R+5.1 |
D+7.8 |
| MO-03 |
D+5.6 |
D+2.2 |
D+3.4 |
| MO-04 |
D+20.0* |
R+5.3 |
D+25.3 |
| NV-03 |
D+0.3 |
R+0.6 |
D+0.9 |
| NH-01 |
R+10.3 |
R+11.6 |
D+1.3 |
| NH-02 |
R+0.1 |
R+1.5 |
D+1.4 |
| NJ-03 |
R+1.1 |
R+2.7 |
D+1.6 |
| NM-01 |
R+0.6 |
D+3.6 |
R+4.2 |
| NM-02 |
R+4.8 |
R+10.8 |
D+6.0 |
| NY-01 |
D+7.6 |
D+0.4 |
D+7.2 |
| NY-13 |
D+7.5 |
R+3.3 |
D+10.8 |
| NY-19 |
R+1.0 |
R+5.4 |
D+4.4 |
| NY-20 |
R+3.5 |
R+9.8 |
D+6.3 |
| NY-23 |
D+0.9 |
D+1.1 |
R+0.2 |
| NY-24 |
D+3.3 |
R+6.2 |
D+9.5 |
| NY-25 |
D+6.6 |
R+0.4 |
D+7.0 |
| NY-29 |
R+12.5 |
R+13.2 |
D+0.7 |
| NC-02 |
D+2.5 |
R+0.8 |
D+3.3 |
| NC-07 |
D+3.8 |
D+7.4 |
R+3.6 |
| NC-08 |
D+2.4 |
D+9.3 |
R+6.9 |
| NC-11 |
D+11.9 |
D+8.6 |
D+3.3 |
| ND-AL |
R+5.0 |
R+9.8 |
D+4.8 |
| OH-01 |
R+6.3 |
R+5.5 |
R+0.8 |
| OH-06 |
D+2.1 |
R+5.1 |
D+7.2 |
| OH-13 |
D+10.0 |
D+11.4 |
R+1.4 |
| OH-15 |
R+6.3 |
R+12.8 |
D+6.5 |
| OH-16 |
R+0.6 |
R+10.8 |
D+10.2 |
| OH-18 |
R+1.9 |
R+13.4 |
D+11.5 |
| OR-05 |
D+2.8 |
D+5.3 |
R+2.5 |
| PA-03 |
R+6.3 |
R+11.4 |
D+5.1 |
| PA-04 |
D+12.6 |
D+1.6 |
D+11.0 |
| PA-07 |
R+3.8 |
R+10.9 |
D+7.1 |
| PA-08 |
R+4.5 |
R+7.0 |
D+2.5 |
| PA-10 |
R+4.6 |
R+10.4 |
D+5.8 |
| PA-11 |
R+2.1 |
R+9.4 |
D+7.3 |
| PA-12 |
D+5.4 |
D+1.6 |
D+3.8 |
| PA-15 |
R+11.6 |
R+14.5 |
D+2.9 |
| RI-01 |
D+4.9 |
D+6.0 |
R+1.1 |
| SC-05 |
R+4.8 |
R+10.2 |
D+5.4 |
| SD-AL |
R+0.3 |
R+2.2 |
D+1.9 |
| TN-04 |
R+1.0 |
R+18.5 |
D+17.5 |
| TN-06 |
R+12.5 |
R+37.9 |
D+25.4 |
| TN-08 |
R+9.5 |
R+20.2 |
D+10.7 |
| TX-17 |
D+1.7 |
R+25.2 |
D+26.9 |
| TX-23 |
D+2.2 |
R+5.0 |
D+7.2 |
| TX-27 |
D+2.9 |
R+0.8 |
D+3.7 |
| VA-02 |
R+3.0 |
R+10.6 |
D+7.6 |
| VA-05 |
R+5.3 |
R+3.8 |
R+1.5 |
| VA-09 |
D+4.5 |
R+4.8 |
D+9.3 |
| WA-02 |
D+5.8 |
D+2.2 |
D+3.6 |
| WA-03 |
R+3.6 |
R+6.0 |
D+2.4 |
| WA-08 |
R+5.4 |
R+4.2 |
R+1.2 |
| WV-01 |
R+2.3 |
R+0.8 |
R+1.5 |
| WI-03 |
D+8.8 |
D+3.8 |
D+5.0 |
| WI-07 |
R+7.2 |
R+7.7 |
D+0.5 |
| WI-08 |
R+5.5 |
R+9.7 |
D+4.2 |
Loretta Sanchez won, not lost, by 13.7 so that should read R+5.4.
You picked Carnahan? Really?