OK, so the recent thread on potential VRA seats in South Carolina has got me thinking about other Southern states. Leaving aside Texas & Florida, which are special cases in my view, the most obvious candidate seems to be Georgia as it also gained a seat for this redistricting cycle.
In short, I wanted to see whether I could increase the number of compact minority-majority seats. As an initial (somewhat crude) effort, the following map features six.
One thing I’ve realized, having made this map, is that the apparent conventional wisdom that Georgia’s 14th seat will be a heavily Republican seat north of Atlanta may very well be incorrect. It’s quite easy to draw a fairly compact minority-majority seat north of GA-04 & GA-05, and I’d say a strong argument could be made that the VRA would require as much.
Whether it would require that GA-12 become a bare majority-minority district as in my map below is another matter. Anyhow, more after the fold!
Below I’ve posted a statewide map and a close-up of the Atlanta region. The following districts on this map are majority-minority.
Downstate:
GA-02: 51% minority (45% Black – 4% Latino)
GA-12: 51% minority (46% Black – 2% Latino)
Atlanta Metro:
GA-04: 72% minority (56% Black – 10% Latino)
GA-05: 67% minority (53% Black – 10% Latino)
GA-13: 64% minority (52% Black – 8% Latino)
GA-14: 54% minority (22% Black – 20% Latino)
The usual caveat applies that my maps are only as good as the data at Dave’s app.
Here are the maps:
AND manages to give all of Savannah to Kingston.
my favorite mapper here.
isn’t your 14th pretty likely to elect a Republican?
And the fact that the 8th is now safer might even lessen GOP opposition a little.
6/14 districts would be 43%.
Does the VRA support the creation of a higher proportion of districts for a group than their % of population?
(30% of 14 would be 4.2 districts)
The only question with Georgia will be do Reps reduce the AA percentage in Barrow GA 12 to make it rep, or do they concede it and settle for 9-5, with the new district being Rep in north Georgia. I am guessing they will take GA-12 from mid 40’s to low to middle 30’s AA % and take out Barrow, so 10-4 it is.
With nice goals. I like.
Unfortunately the republicans will do it far worse.
The VRA looks more at the makeup of the potential electorate, not the census population. It’s a limitation of Dave’s program which gives only census data, but since many Hispanic voters are unregistered and/or non-citizens and/or under 18, you have to mentally adjust for this. It’s why TX-27 elected a weak Republican and split for Obama/McCain at about the national rate, despite being ~70% Hispanic, and its why despite the ability to draw both a 50%+ Puerto Rican district and a 60%+ Mexican American district in Illinois, the VRA probably only requires one Hispanic majority district.
I would guess that the 14th as you’ve drawn it probably has a white majority electorate; 12 is a close call, and 2 is probably OK (obviously 4, 5, and 13 are OK). You may be able to tweak 14 by moving around the 4th and 5th a bit though?
But minor criticisms aside, truly over-the-top outstanding work.