As devoted Swingnuts are aware by now, the Census Bureau has produced its first batch of redistricting-level data. Because Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia all have state-level elections this year, they get bumped to the head of the line. So that means we now know the current population of each congressional district as presently drawn. While the Census Bureau didn’t exactly make this data available in the most accessible format, the greasemonkeys down in the Skunkworks at SSP Labs have crunched the numbers, and here’s what they look like. Note that the “Deviation” column means how far off each current district is from the new ideal (and in the case of LA and NJ, we divided by their new seat totals of 6 and 12 respectively):
| District | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| LA-01 | 686,961 | (68,601) |
| LA-02 | 493,352 | (262,210) |
| LA-03 | 637,371 | (118,191) |
| LA-04 | 667,109 | (88,453) |
| LA-05 | 644,296 | (111,266) |
| LA-06 | 727,498 | (28,064) |
| LA-07 | 676,785 | (78,777) |
| Total: | 4,533,372 |
| District | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| MS-01 | 788,095 | 46,271 |
| MS-02 | 668,263 | (73,561) |
| MS-03 | 756,924 | 15,100 |
| MS-04 | 754,015 | 12,191 |
| Total: | 2,967,297 |
| District | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| NJ-01 | 669,169 | (63,489) |
| NJ-02 | 692,205 | (40,453) |
| NJ-03 | 680,341 | (52,317) |
| NJ-04 | 724,596 | (8,062) |
| NJ-05 | 666,551 | (66,107) |
| NJ-06 | 668,806 | (63,852) |
| NJ-07 | 672,885 | (59,773) |
| NJ-08 | 660,424 | (72,234) |
| NJ-09 | 661,379 | (71,279) |
| NJ-10 | 634,343 | (98,315) |
| NJ-11 | 674,349 | (58,309) |
| NJ-12 | 701,881 | (30,777) |
| NJ-13 | 684,965 | (47,693) |
| Total: | 8,791,894 |
| District | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| VA-01 | 786,237 | 58,871 |
| VA-02 | 646,184 | (81,182) |
| VA-03 | 663,390 | (63,976) |
| VA-04 | 738,639 | 11,273 |
| VA-05 | 685,859 | (41,507) |
| VA-06 | 704,056 | (23,310) |
| VA-07 | 757,917 | 30,551 |
| VA-08 | 701,010 | (26,356) |
| VA-09 | 656,200 | (71,166) |
| VA-10 | 869,437 | 142,071 |
| VA-11 | 792,095 | 64,729 |
| Total: | 8,001,024 |
LA-2, NJ-10, MS-2, VA-3
All but VA-3 are the worse in keeping up with population gains, and in VA’s case, VA-2 shares some similar land areas to VA-3. That’s just . . . sad. Means larger dem vote sink holes in all 4 states (forgone conclusion in LA and NJ).
So strange . . .
VA-10 and VA-11 both need to lose a shitton of people. If they lose their outer areas, they become more Democratic, and if they lose their inner areas, where will those Dem voters go? they can’t all be packed into VA-08. In addition, the Republicans have to worry about VA-02 and 04 (Obama districts), 01 and 05 (barely McCain) and 07 (mediocre Republican performance in 2010). Packing more voters into VA-03 might help, but it won’t be enough for a map that lopsided in a state that went 52-46 for Obama.
I know everyone saw LA-2 coming – but did people expect those 2 districts to be that size? I’m increasingly curious what the LA lines will look like.
as these numbers seem about in line. Real quick comments on each state.
LA-house of pain for GOP as they have to eliminate a seat and keep the others GOP. The logical person out is Freshman landrey. Just my guess.
MS-the big population gain was in North MS. The two Memphis suburban counties had big gains. I don’t think that chances much in the state.
NJ-Northern NJ grew slower then middle and south jersey. Logically NJ9 or NJ10 should be carved up as the state moves Southward. This being NJ the state’s lost district will probably be in the middle.
VA-Its a move to the North for VA. The only surprise to me is that VA8 is short of people. I did not see that. I think we see a protect all incumbents map in VA. Just my guess.
I think the basic assumption in New Jersey was that Holt would get thrown in with Lance, but looking at these numbers it will be seriously tough to do that, the Newark area (6, 8-10 & 13th CDs) basically lost 1/2 a CD worth of ppl(353k total), each district will need to be about 730k.
The obvious target would be the 6th (which is already a mess), but something tells me that no one messes with Frank Pallone…
According to the Boston Globe Kerry is “running” for Secretary of State;
http://www.boston.com/bostongl…
Only really intersting thing here is that some top Dems in MA might pass on taking on Brown if they thought the Kerry seat might soon be vacant…
I’m very disappointed. We’ve had final census numbers for these states for hours and there are no maps posted yet. What’s wrong with you people?!
The first thing I notice here is that population growthvin NoVA is even more than I expected. I had thought that VA-11 was going to be just slightly (10-20,000) over population, but it turned out to be even more. This could make it harder to take out Connolly. Going for a real 9-2 map would have been colossally stupid, but they might have been aiming to make it easier for Pat Herrity to win a primary vs Keith Fimian by adding in more of PW county. This becomes harder with these #’s. Also, VA-08 is less underpopulated than estimates I have seen which said it was going to be 60,000 or so. That will hurt efforts to shore up VA-10, as shifting blue precinccts from the 10th to the 8th was one of the main ways for doing that.
I could easily see the Louisiana state legislature trying to combine part of Baton Rouge. I’m not sure about the VRA compliance of such a district. Given the quarter of a million deficit in LA-02 that is prime for more Dem packing.
I’m pretty surprised how badly this southeast Virginia district did compared to the rest of the state. Worse even than the Appalachian district! So it’s going to have to expand, and it surrounded almost entirely by Black areas. And Randy Forbes in VA-04 will need those white areas to stay afloat. Will VA-02 then become a fair-fight district?