With the mini-flurry of GOP retirements on Friday by Jim Saxton and Babs Cubin, now is as good a time as any to take stock of the open seat situation in the House. There’s been quite a lot of movement since our last installment in October, with the retirements of GOP Reps. Regula, Hobson, Tancredo, and of course Saxton and Cubin. GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is joining Heather Wilson in the New Mexico Senate race, opening up both their seats in the House. It also appears that Rep. Tom Udall (D) will join them in the Senate race. In a rare Democratic announcement, we saw the decision of New York Rep. Mike McNulty (D) to retire for health reasons.
Following the format of the previous installments in this series, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-02 | Everett | R | R+13.2 | 71 | Retiring |
| AZ-01 | Renzi | R | R+2.2 | 50 | Retiring |
| CA-52 | Hunter | R | R+9.3 | 60 | Running for President |
| CO-02 | Udall | D | D+8.1 | 58 | Running for Senate |
| CO-06 | Tancredo | R | R+10 | 62 | Running for President |
| IL-11 | Weller | R | R+1.1 | 51 | Retiring |
| IL-14 | Hastert | R | R+4.8 | 67 | Retiring |
| IL-18 | LaHood | R | R+5.5 | 62 | Retiring |
| ME-01 | Allen | D | D+6.2 | 63 | Running for Senate |
| MN-03 | Ramstad | R | R+0.5 | 62 | Retiring (?) |
| MS-03 | Pickering | R | R+14.1 | 45 | Retiring |
| NJ-03 | Saxton | R | D+3.3 | 60 | Retiring |
| NM-01 | Wilson | R | D+2.4 | 47 | Running for Senate |
| NM-02 | Pearce | R | R+5.7 | 61 | Running for Senate |
| NM-03 | Udall | D | D+5.5 | 60 | Running for Senate |
| NY-21 | McNulty | D | D+8.7 | 61 | Retiring |
| OH-07 | Hobson | R | R+6.0 | 72 | Retiring |
| OH-15 | Pryce | R | R+1.1 | 57 | Retiring |
| OH-16 | Regula | R | R+3.6 | 84 | Retiring |
| WY-AL | Cubin | R | R+19.4 | 61 | Retiring |
That adds up to a whopping 16 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. It’s worth noting that at this point in the 2005, there were only 12 announced retirements by GOP House incumbents. And there is still plenty of time left on the clock for more announcements, possibly from some of the folks listed below…
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Young | R | R+14.3 | 75 | Under investigation |
| CA-04 | Doolittle | R | R+10.9 | 58 | Under investigation |
| CA-24 | Gallegly | R | R+4.8 | 64 | Botched a retirement attempt in 2006 |
| CA-41 | Lewis | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Under investigation |
| CO-05 | Lamborn | R | R+15.7 | 54 | Primary challenge |
| DE-AL | Castle | R | D+6.5 | 69 | Health issues |
| FL-10 | Young | R | D+1.1 | 78 | Age issues/Speculation |
| GA-10 | Broun | R | R+12.7 | 61 | Primary challenge |
| IA-03 | Boswell | D | D+1.4 | 74 | Health issues |
| IA-04 | Latham | R | D+0.4 | 60 | Possible Senate run |
| IA-05 | King | R | R+8.4 | 59 | Possible Senate run |
| IL-03 | Lipinski | D | D+10.3 | 42 | Primary challenge |
| IN-07 | Carson | D | D+8.7 | 70 | Health issues |
| LA-02 | Jefferson | D | D+27.8 | 61 | Indicted |
| MD-01 | Gilchrest | R | R+9.8 | 62 | Primary challenge |
| MD-04 | Wynn | D | D+29.8 | 57 | Primary challenge |
| MD-06 | Bartlett | R | R+12.8 | 82 | Age issues |
| MI-03 | Ehlers | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Speculation |
| NC-09 | Myrick | R | R+12.2 | 67 | Speculation |
| NY-23 | McHugh | R | R+0.2 | 60 | Speculation |
| OH-02 | Schmidt | R | R+13.1 | 56 | Primary challenge |
| TN-09 | Cohen | D | D+18.1 | 59 | Primary challenge |
| TX-04 | Hall | R | R+17.1 | 85 | Age issues |
| VA-11 | Davis | R | R+0.6 | 59 | Mulling retirement |
One deletion from this list was Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA), whose campaign manager e-mailed us the following statement:
It was brought to my attention by our DC staff that you have the Congressman listed as a potential retirement. As the Congressman’s Campaign Manager I can assure you that Congressman McKeon is definitely running for reelection to the 25th CD in California.
Couldn’t be much clearer than that.
Any other retirement rumors flowing through your tubes?
UPDATE: I bet Tom Davis is the next in line to retire. From the WaPo:
He probably won’t run for reelection unless he concludes it is a path to the Senate in 2012, say his associates.
Gotta give McKeon’s people credit, they emailed you over what they heard through the grapevine. Until recently, my representative didn’t even respond when I emailed her directly. lol A good deal of these republican retirements are in really competative districts, it would seem that they may be reading the tea leaves and not want to have to raise millions of dollars, just to win by a few thousand votes. But that’s just my take on it.
Is Gary Miller under investigation for some “tax free” real estate transactions? I recall an LA Times article.
So, even if Lewis and Doolittle run while under investigation, you think they are not vulnerable?