House ratings: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep edge in House

Now that the primaries are slowly quieting down and that delegate calculation are no longer a full time job, we can get back to the joy of ranking congressional races. My last House rankings came in mid-November, and the 4 months that have passed since then have been a political eternity. There have been a number of high-profile retirements, including the first Democrat to retire from a competitive seat in OR-05; but open seats are clearly a Republican headache in this cycle, with many GOP congressmen calling it quits since November, some of them in districts that Democrats are already salivating over (such as NY-25 and VA-11). And while many retirements are in districts that look safe for the GOP (LA-06 and KY-02, for example), their cumulated impact forces the NRCC to play defense and stretches Republican resources even further.

Both parties have also scored recruitment coups in the past few months, and gotten some disappointing news. Here again, the GOP has much more to worry about; it even finds itself without a candidate in IL-11, an open seat that has sky-rocketed at the top of the Democratic priority list. But Republicans also have some bright spots: They for instance convinced former Rep. Anne Northup to run for her old seat in KY-03 and are keeping  NM-01 much more competitive than many observers expected. And Republicans got encouraging news in December when they successfully defended two districts in special elections, particularly in OH-05 where the DCCC believed it could snatch a seat away.

Overall, all this movement is pushing many more races towards the top of these ratings and we should expect a few more surprises before the retirement and recruitment season comes to a  close. We should already get a better sense of the mood of the country and what to expect in November with two special elections in the coming weeks in IN-07 and IL-14.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For detailed descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past month. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less vulnerable: CA-04, NY-19, PA-06, OH-18
  
• More vulnerable: FL-21, IL-11, IL-14, KY-02, KY-03, LA-06, MD-01, MO-09, NJ-03, NY-25, OR-05, PA-11, VA-11
  
• Off the list: OH-05
  

Outlook: Democrats pick-up  9-14 seats.

• IL-11 (Open, Upgraded): The GOP’s recruitment woes had already pushed this seat to “Lean Takeover” in the fall. Democrats got a top-tier candidate — state Senate President Debbie Halvorson — while Republicans failed to do the same. Things have gotten even worse since then for the GOP, as their nominee — New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann — dropped out two weeks after the primary. This actually could prove a blessing to Republicans if they manage to get a stronger candidate (who would not have to face a primary), but it has been months they have failed to do just that and right now Halvorson is running unopposed — and raising a lot of money. Until the GOP replaces Baldermann, this race has to be considered the top pick-up opportunity for Dems.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (5)

• AZ-1 (Open): Rep. Renzi had already announced his retirement in this swing district, and Democrats have a strong field of candidates. But Renzi has now been indicted on 36 charges of corruption, and some in the House leadership are pushing him to resign. That would create a competitive open seat in which Democrats would have an even better chance of winning given the turnout differential in this year’s races.
  
• NJ-03 (Open, Upgraded): The less dramatic version of IL-11, NJ-03 could fall in the Democratic column easily because of a recruitment differential. After Rep. Saxton retired in this competitive district, Democrats coalesced around state Senator John Adler (who was already running) while the top potential GOP contender declined to run. Bush very narrowly carried the district in 2004, but Adler is favored to pick up the seat this year.
  
• NY-25 (Open, Upgraded): This seat has emerged as one of the RNCC’s biggest headaches. One of the 8 remaining Republican-held districts that Kerry carried in 2004, NY-25 was barely kept in the GOP column by Rep. Walsh in 2006 — by 2,005 votes. Now, Walsh has retired and the Democrats appear to be coalescing around their nominee from last cycle, Dan Maffei. This will be a tough seat for the GOP to hold, particularly in a presidential year.
  
• OH-15 (Open)
• VA-11 (Open, Upgraded): Rep. Tom Davis finally announced his plans to leave his Northern Virginia seat next year, opening up a seat in a rapidly Democratic-trending region. Dems are running two strong candidates, state Sen. (and former Rep.) Leslie Bryne and Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. The Republican candidate will likely be Keith Fimian, a businessman with self-funding abilities. An idea of how uphill a climb this race could be for the GOP is provided by the 2005 statewide election results: Leslie Byrne narrowly lost the Lieutenant Governor race that year, but she trounced her Republican opponent within VA-11.
  

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• AK-AL (Rep. Young):  The day of reckoning might be getting near for Alaska Republicans, embroiled in a giant corruption investigation that is also threatening Senator Stevens.  Rep. Young  is facing a very strong challenger, Ethan Berkowitz, but even believers in the Democrat’s chances here were surprised when an independent poll showed Young trailing by 7%. And that was barely better than the 15% deficit Young was facing in a late November internal Democratic poll.
  
• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave)
  
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
  
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Most of the attention in this race was devoted to the Democratic primary, which was held on February 5th, but it ended in a blow-out. Dan Seals won with 81%, setting up a rematch of the 2006 race against Rep. Kirk. Seals can expect to receive more attention from the DCCC this time around.
  
• KY-02 (Open, upgraded): Complete chaos erupted in this race on January 30th, when Rep. Lewis retired quite literally at the last minute, in a ploy to allow his chief of staff to get the GOP nomination. But state Senator Guthrie heard of this time to jump in the race, setting up a wholly unexpected Republican primary. The winner will face state Senator David Boswell, whom Democrats have long been touting.  This seat is very Republican (Bush won with 65%) but depending on the outcome of the GOP primary things could shape up to the Democrats’ advantage.
  
• MN-03 (Open): There were rumors back in the fall that Rep. Ramstad might un-retire, which would be a huge boost for Republicans in a swing district. But most indications since then have been that the retirement is definite. Will Rep. Shadegg’s recent un-retirement cause Ramstad to reconsider?  In any cae, Republicans have a candidate they believe will be strong in November,  state Sen. Erik Paulsen.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-07 (Open): Democrats had their candidate as soon as Rep. Ferguson announced his retirement a few months ago, as Linda Stender (who lost narrowly in 06) was back for a rematch. Republican recruitment here is not as worrisome as in other open seats, with Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Governor Christie Whitman, headlining the competitive primary.
• NM-1 (Open, Downgraded): NM-01, a blue-leaning district that Kerry carried in 04, is an unlikely place to one of the rare open seat bright spots for the GOP. But Republicans believe in the candidacy of Sheriff Darren White (an internal poll showed him leading in the general) while Democrats have to deal with a major primary between high-profile figures. The dynamics here could change after the primary but the early script is what the GOP was hoping for.    
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
  
• OH-16 (Open)
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)
  

Democratic seats, Toss-up (11)

• CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
• GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
• IL-8 (Rep. Bean): The Feb. 5th primaries delivered Bean’s Republican challenger, businessman Steve Greenberg. Bean will probably have very few calm cycles in her House careers, as she sits on Republican territory. But Barack Obama’s probable heading of the Democratic ticket coupled with the fact that she is very aware of the danger and prepares herself accordingly will make her a tough target.
  
• IN-7 (Open): Rep. Carson’s death earlier this year created a special election in this Democratic leaning district. Democrats selected Andre Carson, the former Rep.’s grandson, while the GOP fielded a much touted candidate, state Rep. Jon Elrod. The most recent public poll was taken a few weeks ago and shows a toss-up, though the consensus seems to be that the district is too unfavorable to Republicans for Elrod to have a chance. Ultimately, what is really hurting Elrod is the NRCC’s lack of funds, as they are not able to truly test the relatively weak Carson.
  
• IN-09 (Rep. Hill): The filing deadline passed in Indiana, confirming that the 2008 race will be the fourth straight confrontation between Democrat Baron Hill and Republican Sodrel. The former won in 2002 and 2006, and the latter in 2004.
  
• KS-2 (Rep. Boyda)
• NH-1 (Rep. Shea-Porter)
• OR-05 (Open, Upgraded): Rep. Hooley’s surprise retirement is the first open seat headache Democrats are facing this year, and it could be a very difficult one for the DCCC to hold. Bush won this district by 1% in 2004, testifying to its being one of the tightest in the country. Republicans are already excited about their candidate, Mike Erickson, who is a wealthy self-funder who already ran in 2006 and got a very respectable 43%.
  
• PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
  
• PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
  
• TX-22 (Rep. Lampson)

For the rest of the ratings (and there are MANY more very interesting seats to go, including all the lean retentions and potentially competitives), go here on Campaign Diaries.