I already posted lists ranking the 132 most vulnerable members of the House and the 60 most vulnerable House Democrats. Rankings are based on PVI, 2004 incumbent or incumbent party performance and 2006 incumbent performance. Those who received less than 55% of the vote in 2006 are in bold, and House fresh(wo)men are in italics. Although these rankings are far from definitive, they do provide one with a sense of how the landscape will appear in 2008.
1 CT-04 (SHAYS) D+5
2 WA-08 (REICHERT) D+2
3 PA-06 (GERLACH) D+2
4 NM-01 (WILSON) D+2
5 NV-03 (PORTER) D+1
6 NJ-07 (FERGUSON) R+1
7 NC-08 (HAYES) R+3
8 PA-15 (DENT) D+2
9 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG) R+0
10 IL-06 (ROSKAM) R+3
11 FL-13 (BUCHANAN) R+4
12 OH-15 (PRYCE) R+1
13 MN-06 (BACHMANN) R+5
14 MI-07 (WALBERG) R+2
15 AZ-01 (RENZI) R+2
16 MI-11 (McCOTTER) R+1
17 NY-26 (REYNOLDS) R+3
18 NY-29 (KUHL) R+5
19 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE) R+9
20 IL-10 (KIRK) D+4
21 VA-02 (DRAKE) R+6
22 OH-01 (CHABOT) R+1
23 NY-13 (FOSSELLA) D+1
24 IL-11 (WELLER) R+1
25 CA-26 (DREIER) R+3
26 CA-50 (BILBRAY) R+5
27 VA-11 (DAVIS) R+1
28 PA-03 (ENGLISH) R+2
29 MN-02 (KLEIN) R+3
30 OH-02 (SCHMIDT) R+13
31 NY-03 (KING) D+2
32 KY-04 (DAVIS) R+12
33 FL-08 (KELLER) R+3
34 IA-04 (LATHAM) D+0
35 NJ-05 (GARRETT) R+4
36 NY-25 (WALSH) D+3
37 MI-08 (ROGERS) R+2
38 NJ-03 (SAXTON) D+3
39 WY-AL (CUBIN) R+19
40 DE-AL (CASTLE) D+7
41 WV-02 (CAPITO) R+5
42 OH-12 (TIBERI) R+1
43 PA-18 (MURPHY) R+2
44 OH-14 (LaTOURETTE) R+2
45 TX-32 (SESSIONS) R+11
46 FL-15 (WELDON) R+3
47 WA-05 (McMORRIS) R+7
48 NJ-02 (LoBIONDO) D+4
49 OH-03 (TURNER) R+3
50 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE) R+11
51 NE-02 (TERRY) R+9
52 NV-02 (HELLER) R+8
53 NE-01 (FORTENBERRY) R+12
54 AZ-02 (FRANKS) R+9
55 VA-10 (WOLF) R+5
56 IL-15 (JOHNSON) R+6
57 AL-03 (ROGERS) R+4
58 MI-04 (CAMP) R+3
59 NM-02 (PEARCE) R+6
60 NC-05 (FOXX) R+15
personally want to target in 2008? Why?
I’d rank Jim Walsh higher, though–he certainly belongs higher than Geoff Davis, especially given his trash talk towards his district after he narrowly won.
With incoming DCCC Chair Van Hollen practically drawing a bullseye on New York’s Vic FOSSELA in his initial speeches, NY-13 should be moved near the top of any list of vulnerable GOP House seats in 2008.
We’ve already started doing what we can over at West Virginia Blue to lay the groundwork for Rep. Shelley Moore Capito’s defeat.
There’s a possibility Capito will decide to challenge Sen. Rockefeller. In that case WV-02 as an open seat would rank much higher for Dem. pick-up possibilities.