LA-05: History, Analysis, Recruitment

Louisiana’s fifth district, Huey Long’s district, presently represented by Republican Rodney Alexander,

does not appear as competitive as LA-07, the first district about which I have written in this series on Louisiana’s Congressional seats.  Indeed, Republicans garner 68% of the vote in this seat’s open primaries when confronted with underfunded an inexperienced Democratic challengers.  Here are the results of the 2000, 2004 and 2006 open primaries:

2006
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 778 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
78,211  68% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
33,233  29% Gloria Williams Hearn, D Defeated
1,876  2% Brent Sanders, L Defeated
1,262  1% John Watts, O Defeated

2004
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 850 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
141,495  59% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
58,591  25% Zelma “Tisa” Blakes, D Defeated
37,971  16% John W. “Jock” Scott, R Defeated

2000
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 756 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
42,977  24% Roger Beall, D Defeated
123,975  69% John C. Cooksey, R Elected
5,335  3% Raymond A. “Chuck” Dumas, O Defeated
7,186  4% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated

The poor performance of nominal Democrats in LA-05 is not very encouraging.  But in 2002 and in 1996, years in which this seat was open, very competitive challenges were waged by Democrats.  John Cooksey, a Republican who held this seat until he abandoned it in 2002 to run against Mary Landrieu in the open primary for Louisiana’s US Senate seat, won this seat in 1996.  The open primary results of the 1996 race follow the pattern outlined above: Republicans received 67% of the vote, while Democrats garnered 33%.

1996 Open Primary
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
9,286  5% Michael Jordan Caire, D Defeated
60,853  34% John Cooksey, R Runoff
48,226  27% Clyde Holloway, R Defeated
7,106  4% “Ben” Marshall, R Defeated
5,268  3% Tim Robinson, R Defeated
50,144  28% Francis Thompson, D Runoff

Although Republicans won 67% of the vote, Democrat Francis Thompson, a Representative in the Louisiana House of Representatives, managed to edge one of the Republican challengers and qualify for the runoff, where he cut into the Republican voting base and earned 42% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 1996 runoff:

1996 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
135,990  58% John Cooksey, R Elected
97,363  42% Francis Thompson, D Defeated

When voters are forced to choose between one Democrat and one Republican, the margin of difference between the parties’ respective vote totals decreases dramatically.

This was also the case in 2002, when the seat became open as a result of Cooksey’s abortive run for the US Senate.  Here are the results of the 2002 open primary, which also follows the partisan voting pattern I discuss above:

2002
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
52,952  29% Rodney Alexander, D Runoff
34,533  19% Robert J. Barham, R Defeated
45,278  25% Lee Fletcher, R Runoff
42,573  23% Clyde C. Holloway, R Defeated
4,595  2% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated
1,145  1% Vinson Mouser, O Defeated
3,581  2% Jack Wright, R Defeated

Because three Republicans split their voting base, a Democrat named Rodney Alexander was able to qualify for the runoff despite winning only 29% of the vote.  Alexander won that runoff as a Democrat by 974 votes, staging a major upset in 2002, when Democrats performed poorly in federal races, especially in the South.  Here are the results of the 2002 runoff:

2002 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
86,718  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
85,744  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The upset Alexander staged in 2002 is very similar to that waged by Democrat Charlie Melancon for the open Congressional seat in LA-03 in 2004, when Melancon won his seat by 569 votes.  Here are the results of LA-03’s 2004 open primary and runoff, which once again demonstrates how Democrats can compete in Louisiana if one Republican and one Democrat face off after a primary:

LA-03 2004 open primary

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
25,783  10% Damon J. Baldone, D Defeated
19,347  7% Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi, D Defeated
10,350  4% Kevin D. Chiasson, R Defeated
63,328  24% “Charlie” Melancon, D Runoff
61,132  23% Craig Romero, R Defeated
84,680  32% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Runoff

LA-03 2004 runoff
U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
57,611  50% “Charlie” Melancon, D Elected
57,042  50% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Defeated

But more reasons exist for Alexander’s victory in 2002 than just the ability of Democrats to perform well when facing Republican opponents in highly publicized runoffs.  Alexander may have one his seat as a Democrat in 2002 as a result of perceived shifts in the Republican party.  For John Cooksey was not your standard southern Republican: although Cooksey personally opposed abortion rights, he did not believe the US Constitution should be amended with an abortion ban.  For to him, “federal bureaucrats” should have no role in shaping policy that affects the quotidian lives of Americans.  This psuedo-libertarian stance on cultural issues starkly contrasted with the campaign rhetoric of the Republican party in 2002, possibly swaying voters away from Fletcher to Alexander in the 2002 runoff.

Another factor in Alexander’s 2002 Democratic victory was the US Senate race, the only other federal race on the ballot in the 2002 runoff.  Many believe the Republican’s aggressive campaign against Landrieu backfired, propelling her to a surprise victory in a year when Democratic Senators lost their seats in the South.  Although Landrieu did not perform as well as Alexander in LA-05, she did receive 48.5% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 2002 Senate race runoff and the Congressional runoff in LA-05 by parish:

2002 US Senate Race and LA-05 House runoff results in LA-05

Allen Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,111  59% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,201  41% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,630  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
950  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Evangeline Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 61 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,740  51% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,563  49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,396  44% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,811  56% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Iberville Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 44 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,390  68% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,431  32% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,970  69% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,363  31% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Pointe Coupee Parish (most of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 24 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,977  62% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,998  38% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 15 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,044  76% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
967  24% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Avoyelles Parish
U. S. Senator
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,464  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,897  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,429  59% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,531  41% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Rapides Parish
U. S. Senator
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
15,346  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
17,983  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,045  52% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
16,011  48% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

LaSalle Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,253  33% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,530  67% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,498  40% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,257  60% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Catahoula Parish
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,600  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,410  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,687  56% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,305  44% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Concordia Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,853  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,491  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,701  51% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,560  49% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Winn Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,038  48% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,247  52% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,477  58% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,784  42% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Caldwell Parish
U. S. Senator
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,237  43% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,635  57% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,354  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,511  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Franklin Parish
U. S. Senator
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,604  45% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,150  55% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,735  48% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,970  52% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Tensas Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,270  60% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
847  40% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,246  60% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
844  40% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Madison Parish
U. S. Senator
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,759  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,333  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,738  57% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,295  43% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Richland Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,680  44% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,368  56% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,847  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,163  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Ouachita Parish
U. S. Senator
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,330  41% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
24,450  59% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,422  42% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
23,982  58% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Jackson Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,691  49% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,786  51% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,562  65% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,940  35% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Lincoln Parish
U. S. Senator
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,305  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
6,327  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,681  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
5,766  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Union Parish
U. S. Senator
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,714  39% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,181  61% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,778  41% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,023  59% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Morehouse Parish
U. S. Senator
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,009  50% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,974  50% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,956  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,946  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

West Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,135  36% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,028  64% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,171  37% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,983  63% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

East Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,360  63% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
801  37% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,351  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
782  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The results of the US Senate and US House races in the 2002 runoff almost mirror one another, which has lead some to believe Landrieu and Alexander mutually assisted one another.  The only parish Landrieu won that Alexander did not was Evangeline Parish, and only Winn and Jackson Parishes were won by Alexander and not by Landrieu. 

Because Landrieu is a New Orleans Democrat, she did not perform as well as Alexander, who has resided in Northern Louisiana for at least three decades.  But notice the Democratic victory in 2002 was during a year when Landrieu was up for reelection.  This was also the case in 1996, when Democrat Francis Thompson made it into a runoff with John Cooksey, sharing the runoff ticket with Landrieu as she faced off with Republican Woody Jenkins.  LA-05, in other words, can be competitive for Democrats in a year when there is a US Senate race with a Democratic incumbent.  It can also be competitive during a Presidential election year. 

2008 is also promising, as races for federal offices will no longer have open primaries.  Each party will hold its own primary, and the winners of each party’s primary will face off in a general election.  Because 54% of Louisiana’s voters are registered Democrats, many voters who voted for a Republican in open primaries in the past will receive ballots for the Democratic party.  This will most probably result in the election of a consensus candidate who can compete throughout the entire district.  And because only two or three candidates representing different parties will share the ballot on election day, the results should be similar to the runoff results of 1996 and 2002, giving Democrats a viable chance to win Alexander’s seat.

Some believe it will be difficult to unseat Alexander now that he is a Republican.  Alexander switched parties and refiled his election petition just hours before the filing deadline for the open primary in 2004.  Although he claimed he switched parties as a result of the Democratic Party’s nomination of John Kerry for the Presidency, many understand his switch to be the result of White House entreaties.  Alexander was also promised a seat on the Appropriations Committee by the House Republican leadership.  This switch, however, has not helped him consolidate a broader voting base than that enjoyed by his predecessor Cooksey.  Similar to Cooksey in 2000, Alexander garnered 68 in the open primary in 2006.  He is now viewed as a Republican, and the Democrats who previously supported him in 2002 have abandoned him, making him vulnerable to a Democratic challenge.

Also complicating Alexander’s reelection bid in 2008 are the scandals in which his office became embroiled in October 2006.  His assistant was one of the pages pursued by Mark Foley online, and Alexander’s office did not report Foley’s abuse to House leadership, for Alexander claims the page’s parents did not want him to pursue the matter.  Alexander’s inability to manage the affairs of his office also surfaced when his former scheduler, Elizabeth Scott, sued his office for neglecting to take action against Royal Alexander, Rodney Alexander’s Chief of Staff, who engaged in lewd acts of sexual misconduct while sexually harrassing Scott.  Although Gloria Hearn, who lacked a website until a few weeks before the open primary, discussed these problems with voters, Alexander’s ethical lapses were not central to her campaign. 

Alexander’s gross negligence, Landrieu’s reelection for US Senate, changes in Louisiana’s primary system, the high number of African-Americans in the district (34%) and the high percentage of registered Democrats make Alexander a potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent.  Thankfully, the Democratic bench in LA-05 is very deep, as there are many eligible state legislators and mayors from which we can choose.

LOUISIANA STATE HOUSE – Eligible Candidates

Richard “Rick” GALLOT, Jr. – District 11
Bienville, Clairborne and Lincoln Parishes
Attorney
elected 2000, final term begins 2007
2003 – unopposed

James R. “Jim” FANNIN – District 13
Bienville, Jackson, Ouchita and Winn Parishes
Independent Businessman
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 56/44 in open primary

Charles W. DeWITT – District 25
Rapides and Vernon Parishes
Farmer and Businessman
elected 1979, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Israel B. CURTIS – District 26
Rapides Parish
Legislator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – deated another Dem 53/47 in runoff

Rick L. FARRAR – District 27
Rapides Parish
Attorney
elected 1991 and 1999, final term begins 2007
2003 – deated Other Party candidate 61/39 in open primary

Charles “Charlie Mac” McDONALD – District 14
East Carroll, Morehouse, Ouchita and West Carroll Parishes
Retired University Administrator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Willie HUNTER, Jr. – District 17
Ouachita Parish
Attorney
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Francis C. THOMPSON – District 19
East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland and West Carroll Parishes
Retired Educator
elected 1974, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed
1996 US House Candidate – defeated 58/42 by Republican in runoff

Lelon KENNEY – District 20
Caldwell, Catahoula, Franklin and Tensas Parishes
Farmer
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – defeated another Dem 63/37 in runoff

Monica H. WALKER – District 28
Avoyelles Parish
Business Owner
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – unopposed

Karen Gaudet ST. GERMAIN – District 60
Ascension, Assumption, Iberville and West Baton Rouge Parishes
Legislator
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 52/48 in runoff

Many state representatives will retire in 2007, and I imagine many of them can be convinced to run for Alexander’s seat.

LOUISIANA SENATE – Eligible Candidates

Charles D. “CD” JONES – District 34
Ouachita, Richland, East Carroll, Madison, Tensas and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1992, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1980-1992; Retired Army Captain, 1976-1979
2003 – unopposed

Noble E. ELLINGTON – District 32
Ouachita, Caldwell, Richland, Franklin, Catahoula, LaSalle, Rapides, Avoyelles and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1998, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1988-1995
2003 – defeated another Dem 80/20 in open primary

Joe McPHERSON – District 29
Rapides Parish
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
Former State Senator, 1984-1996; United States Army Reserves
2003 – defeated another Dem 79/21 in open primary

Kenneth M. “Mike” SMITH – District 31
Sabine, Natchitoches, Winn, Grant and Rapides Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1996, eligible to serve through 2008
2003 – unopposed

Donald E. HINES, MD – District 28
Allen, Evangeline, Avoyelles and St. Landry Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1993, eligible to serve through 2008
Current Senate President
2003 – unopposed

Robert “Rob” MARIONNEAUX, Jr. – District 17
Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge, Iberville, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
2003 – defeated two Republicans 62/29/9 in open primary

Many state senators’ terms end in 2008.  Perhaps they too can be convinced to challenge Alexander.

MAYORS OF CITIES – Eligible Candidates

James E. “Jamie” MAYO – Mayor of Monroe
Ouachita Parish, population 52,163
elected October 2001, unopposed 2005

Clarence FIELDS – Mayor of Pineville
Rapides Parish, population 13,858
elected 2002, unopposed 2006

Clarence HAWKINS – Mayor of Bastrop
Morehouse Parish, population 12,763
elected 1989, reelected 2005 83/17 against another Dem in open primary
no website

Mark A. “Tony” GULOTTA – Mayor of Plaquemine
Iberville Parish, population 6,894
elected 1992, unopposed 2004
website under construction

Deano THORNTON – Mayor of Winnfield
Winn Parish, population 5,484
elected April 1994, reelected April 2006 51/49 over another Dem in open primary

Richard MICHAEL – Mayor of Marksville
Avoyelles Parish, population 5,695
elected 1978, reelected April 2006 unopposed
no website

Jack HAMMONS – Mayor of Winnsboro
Franklin Parish, population 5,149
elected 1998, reelected April 2006 53/45 over another Dem in open primary
no website

Isaac FIELDS, Jr. – Mayor of Lake Providence
East Carroll Parish, population 4,751
elected 2002, reelected October 2006 unopposed
no website

Officials who were just elected to his or her office are not considered eligible, as are those who will not complete the first term of their office by 2007.  A populist Democrat with experience and knowlege of agriculture who has a pseudo-libertarian view of government, especially with respect to cultural and social issues, would be an ideal candidate.  Winnfield, the county seat of Winn Parish, is Huey Long’s hometown, and I imagine a message of agricultural development and economic development in this very poor district will resonate with its voters.

Resources with which to contact activists in this district include Democratic Meetups for Monroe, Louisiana, which includes contact information for the DNC’s congressional district field coordinator, Jeanie Williams-West.  One can also contact members of the Louisiana Democratic Party through their website.

I cannot emphasize the importance of fielding strong challengers to every Congressional seat held by a Republican in Louisiana.  Not only will this help us expand our majority; it will also secure high turnout for Sen. Landrieu and for our Presidential candidate in a year when Democrats and Republicans will hold for the first time separate primaries, thus guarenteeing a race between one Democrat and one Republican on the general election.  As I explain above, this increases our chances of winning Congressional seats in this state, especially if we hold competitive Democratic primaries for each Congressional seat presently held by a Republican.