It’s been a while since we’ve talked about state legislatures, so here are some bits and pieces on where we stand right now (if you need a primer on where the most hotly contested chambers are and what the margin of seats held is, see my previous diary here). New York remains the big prize, with Democrats within one flipped seat of a tied State Senate and two seats away from taking control. This is the only state I know of where individual races have been polled; over the past month Siena has polled 10 of the 62 races, and with one GOP-held open seat poised to fall to the Democrats, one Dem incumbent trailing a GOP challenger, and one GOP incumbent tied with his Democratic challenger, the outcome is too close to call.
In Texas, the House is possibly the next juiciest legislative target after the NY Senate, which looks more like a two-cycle project but might actually get done this year. Republicans currently hold the House 79-71. Burnt Orange Report recently put together an impressive set of projections, and it seems like a 75-75 split is possible if Dems run the table on the closest races.
They peg two Democratic challengers, Diana Maldonado (open seat in HD-52 in Austin’s northern suburbs) and Chris Turner (against incumbent Bill Zedler in HD-96 in Ft. Worth’s southern suburbs), as “Lean Dem,” with two more potential Democratic pickups at the “Tossup” level (Joe Moody in an open seat in HD-78 in El Paso and Joel Redmond in an open seat in HD-144 in Houston’s eastern suburbs). A Houston Chronicle article from yesterday seems to support this analysis; while it doesn’t delve in to specific seats, it looks at fundraising and general mood to conclude “Climate is ripe for Texas House takeover.”
There’s more over the flip…
Governing Magazine’s Ballot Box blog has, in the last month profiled some of the other most hotly contested state legislature races. One race recently profiled that presents the GOP with a takeover opportunity in an unlikely place: the Maine Senate, based on the Dems’ narrow 18-17 lead and, in an example of all politics being local, an unpopular tax on alcoholic beverages intended to pay for improved health care access. The swingiest district seems to be the 1st district in the state’s southernmost tip, matching a freshman Dem against his GOP predecessor.
The Nevada Senate is another prime pickup opportunity for the Democrats, as the GOP currently controls it by an 11-10 margin. As they point out, this turns on only two races, both involving endangered GOP incumbents, Bob Beers and Joe Heck in the suburbs of Las Vegas. Beers and Heck, if they survive, are both considered possible gubernatorial candidates, seeing as how embattled Jim Gibbons isn’t likely to try again… however, first they have to survive Gibbons’ unpopularity.
One of the Democrats’ toughest holds this year is the Indiana House, where the Dems have a 51-49 edge. This race is hard to handicap because it’s likely the Republicans will pick up a few open seats in rural areas left open by Dem retirements (including ones in West Lafayette and the rural area near Evansville), while Dems pick up a few GOP-held but Dem-heavy seats in Indianapolis (including the seat held by Jon Elrod, whom you might remember getting demolished by Andre Carson in the IN-07 special election).
The Oklahoma Senate is the closest in the nation, as it’s a 24-24 tie, although Democrats maintain control because of the Lt. Governor. Democrats face big trouble in a Dem-held open seat in Stillwater, where a former president of Oklahoma State University is the GOP nominee. However, they feel they have several possible pickups elsewhere, including in the Oklahoma Panhandle, one of the most conservative places in the country but where they’re running a professional bull rider by the name of Bowdy Peach who seems uniquely suited to the district.
In the New Hampshire Senate, Democrats hold a 14-10 edge and are likely to hold on to that. They may even add to that, starting with the seat being vacated by Joe Kenney, the GOP sad sack currently losing the New Hampshire governor’s race by a margin of about 70-10; the Union-Leader projects this seat as “Lean Democratic.”
Both chambers in Florida are heavily Republican right now, but Democrats are optimistic they might pick up a few seats in each, especially a Republican-held open senate seat near Sarasota. However, Florida Dems sound more focused on 2010, when term limits will turf out 21 House Republicans and 8 Senate Republicans.
The Tennessee Senate is one place where the Republicans may take over (despite a 16-16-1 tie, they effectively wield control already; the one independent, who claims to belong to the “NASCAR Party,” generally votes Republican). Several retirements in rural seats held by Democrats may lead to GOP pickups, such as the seat in rural areas just east of Memphis held by long-time Senate leader John Wilder since 1966.
Louis Jacobson at Stateline.org is apparently the only prognosticator who goes so far as to try to assign state legislatures to the “tossup/lean/likely” framework; he published his newest ratings yesterday. They’re mostly in line with what we’ve seen discussed above, and movements that he’s made lately have generally been in the Democratic direction. He forecasts two currently Republican-held chambers, the New York Senate and Delaware House, as being Lean Democratic. He also forecasts seven Republican-held chambers (Alaska Senate, Nevada Senate, North Dakota Senate, Arizona House, Montana House, Ohio House, and Wisconsin Assembly) as being Tossups. He forecasts one Democrat-held chamber, the Montana Senate, as being Lean Republican, and four Democrat-held chambers (Maine Senate, New Hampshire Senate, Indiana House, and Pennsylvania House) as Tossups. Finally, he forecasts the Tennessee Senate and Oklahoma Senate (both tied) as ending up in Republican hands. Some of these choices (NH Senate?) seem to turn merely on the small number of seats needed to flip the chamber, rather than broader trends in each state, but it’s an interesting starting point.
That’s a lot of information to digest… still wondering what to do? Well, the DLCC maintains its own blog, which has been, over the last few weeks, rounding up dozen of Essential Races, focusing on up-and-coming candidates in key races. You can learn more about our Democratic bench as we build it, and there are links for contributions, too.
is one of the most important chambers up for grabs this year. It is essential that we hold it into 2010 so that we don’t get fu¢ked again on Congressional redistricting, when Pennsylvania is guaranteed to lose at least one seat.
The two countervailing factors are Democratic strength at the top of the ticket in our favor and an ethics scandal among House Democratic leadership going against us. The map is drawn to favor the GOP.
I’ve gone over all of the races in my spare time and come out with the following likely scenarios:
State Senate – Range of Zero gain to 1 seat pickup
State House – Range of 5-10 seat pickup
The state Senate is just too gerrymandered to have much chance at real gains, despite term-limits existing. However we should see similar gains to 2006 in the state House. We do have quite a few good pickup opportunities with very few of our own seats at risk due to the large GOP majority.
With Obama’s 50 state strategy and great ground game, we’re in better shape than we’ve ever been at the state and local level all across the country. I have a feeling that we’re going to takeover mang legislatures,quite a few that noone expects us to and see very few losses.
Did not know about the ethics problem before.
A little disappointed to know that the NH senate has 24 members. Their Assembly (whatever it may be called) has 400 members.
I’m actually closing up the office right now. BOR’s list would be right in a neutral environment, however wind is at our backs and a lot of the State House races have been getting a lot of activism coming through. There’s about 8-9 Democratic offense races on the table, and about 3-4 defensive races.
Btw, the one I am working on? The one rated by Capitol Annex as the #1 most likely to flip due to our incredible field program.
Help pay my salary (j/k) to keep me cutting lists and walking houses.
Sherrie Matula for Texas House
We could gain anywhere from 3-as many as 8 or 9 seats this year…
We CANNOT lose the PA or MI House this year or in 2010 if we want a fair hand in redistricting for 2011. Same with Ohio.
NM Senate: 24 D, 18 R
NM House: 42 D, 28 R
New Mexico Dems got their act together this year. In the NM Senate, Dems have a 6 seat majority. In spite of the majority, two top-tier Democratic challengers have emerged. Victor Raigoza is on track to win an Albuquerque swing district controlled by Republicans for a long time ( http://www.victor4senate.com/ ). Tim Eichenberg is looking to do the same against another Albuquerque Republican ( http://eichenbergfornewmexico…. ). I’m very impressed with the internet outreach and fundraising of both campaigns. There are also some underdog campaigns, including John Sapien ( http://sapienforsenate.com/ ) bringing the heat to Rio Rancho good ‘ol boy Steve Komadina. Looks like we’re going to pick up a few seats in the Senate, bringing the majority to 7-8.
In the House, Democrats hold a 14 seat majority. This year both parties got it together and there are a number of tough campaigns on both sides. For example my good friend Andrew Barreras, owner of the fantastic Casa De Pizza, faces a tough challenge from millionaire a-hole Tim Lardner. Overall, I expect to see one or two seats flip. At worst or best a 1-2 seat swing either way.
Crisitunity, thanks for the post. I love state legislature races. Politics feels so real and tangible on a small scale.
There is a pernicious measure on the California ballot — Prop 11 — that threatens to undermine Democratic control in future years by removing redistricting authority for the California State Senate, the Assembly, and the Board of Equalization from the legislature and putting into the hands of an “impartial” Citizens Redistricting Commission. The details are too complicated to explain here, but the text of the proposition is available on the California Secretary of State website. (Caution: .pdf file)
Lots of business interests are backing as is Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. See You Weren’t Sure Who Supports Prop 11? Be Sure Now.
As of Oct 1, the polling data was Yes 27, No 25, and Undecided 49.
But since then, an amalgamation of groups from the National Federation of Independent Business California to the California Chamber of Commerce, the American Association of Retired People, the ACLU of Southern California, and the League of Women Voters has launched a massive ad blitz in support of 11.
From Polling Data on the Props:
By rights, it should fail, but it could pass with frustration over a history of late budgets (85 days this summer), the lack of an aggressive No on 11 ad campaign, the allure of “putting the voters back in charge”, and an uninformed electorate.
Three other obnoxious measures are also on the California ballot:
4 – Parental notification (for the third time)
8 – Anti-marriage
10 – Pickens Natural Gas
You can find information on these measures here.
NC FREE, an organization that has long handicapped legislative races here, states that it is very easy to see the Democrats losing our 31-19 majority, or at least having it cut 26-24. I’ve listed the districts multiple times, but its true, we could be in trouble. Early voting started today and turnout was strong, at least in urban areas (where none of the swing districts are). Fortunately, the NC House should stay Democratic, with possible increases for us.
From a group endorsement of a bunch of Oregon Leg. Ds in Friday’s Oregonian (basically all in base D districts):
Dems currently control state Senate 21-4, and state House 44-7. Yeah, it’s that lopsided. We will take at least 1 state Senate seat because no Republican filed to replace a retiring member, and possibly a second seat, with none of ours threatened. Either 22-3 or 23-2 after November.
The state House will be tougher, as we’ve already extended ourselves pretty far, at most we lose 2 or 3 seats, but with Obama at the top of the ticket I’m thinking breaking even is more likely, which would be devastating for Republican opportunities down the road. As recently as the late 90s they almost had control of the chamber. Now it’s down to the hardcore pockets of Republicans (yes, they exist even in Hawaii). If they can’t make gains this year they’re in trouble down the road and their bench for state Senate challengers will continue to suffer.
I’ll confirm that the Delaware House stands a good chance of flipping Democratic. I should note that we’ll likely gain a “better Democrats” or two in the Senate, which is important because our Democratic Senate President Pro-Tem (Thurman Adams, who makes McCain look youthful) is a conservative douchebag who kills progressive legislation by never allowing it to get to the floor.
Look for the Democrats to gain seats again for a second election in a row. State Senate Democrats have been busy fund raising and organizing for the aptly titled “Majority Project” now for about 4 years now. In 2006, the Democrats had a net gain of 5 seats.
I would put them as about an 50-50 chance of picking up the needed 3 seats. The last time that Democrats controlled the SD Senate after the 1992 election.
Check out Smart Politics (http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2008/07/democrats_in_best_position_to.php)
Forget who posted the roundup of MI state house races, but it sounds as if we’ll make some gains in that chamber. If we can do that and retake the state senate in 2010, we should be in good shape in MI as far as redistricting goes.
As noted above, the Montana legislature is balanced on a knife-edge, with the currently Republican led House rated a toss-up, and the currently Democratic led Senate rated ‘leans Republican’. Control of the Montana state house matters to all of us, since the Legislature sets policy which determines the fate of some of the finest wild lands in America.
The best way I know of to support progressive candidates for the Montana Legislature is by supporting Montana Conservation Voters PAC, a group that has done an outstanding job of helping turn the legislature around during the past 6 years or so – more info at http://www.mtvoters.org/ Note that at this late date you would want to donate to their PAC rather than to their organization directly, since it is the PAC money that is actually disbursed to candidates. I have no connection with MCV other than having donated to them in the past, etc.