Larry Sabato, professor of Political Science at the University of Virginia and director of the Center for Politics has updated his U.S. House predictions.
Overall, it is very good news for as. More over the flip.
Here are today’s changes:
AL-02 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up
AZ-03 Shadegg Likely R to Leans R
CA-04 OPEN Likely R to Toss-up
CA-50 Bilbray Likely R to Leans R
CT-04 Shays Leans R to Leans D
FL-08 Keller Toss-up to Leans D
FL-16 Mahoney Leans R to Likely R
FL-24 Feeney Toss-up to Leans D
FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart Leans R to Toss-up
ID-01 Sali Likely R to Leans R
IL-10 Kirk Leans R to Toss-up
IN-03 Souder Safe R to Leans R
KS-02 Boyda Leans D to Toss-up
KY-02 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up
LA-06 Cazayoux Toss-up to Leans D
MD-01 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up
MI-07 Walberg Toss-up to Leans D
MI-09 Knollenberg Leans R to Toss-up
MN-03 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D
MN-06 Bachmann Safe R to Toss-up
MO-06 Graves Likely R to Leans R
NE-02 Terry Likely R to Leans R
NJ-05 Garrett Likely R to Leans R
NM-01 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D
NM-02 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D
NY-26 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up
NC-08 Hayes Toss-up to Leans D
OH-16 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D
PA-03 English Leans R to Toss-up
SC-01 Brown Safe R to Likely R
TX-07 Culberson Likely R to Leans R
WV-02 Capito Likely R to Leans R
WY-AL OPEN Leans R to Toss-up
Things are looking for good for us. With today’s changes, Sabato is now predicting us to pick off 17 Republican seats. And that doesn’t include toss ups and upsets from the “likely Republican” and “leans Republican” columns. Nine Republican seats have moved to “leans Democratic” today alone.
Another eleven Republican seats have been moved to tossup status. In all, 30 Republican seats were moved in our direction. Addtionally, Don Cazayoux’s race has been upgraded to “leans Democratic.”
The only sour notes for us is that Tim Mahoney’s race was further downgraded to “likely Republican” and Nancy Boyda is now a tossup.
He is predicting 22-27 seat gains in the first paragraph of his column.
Lots of good movement here. Gee, wonder if there is also some good movement on all those races that Sabato and the other prognosticators decided back in January that they would ignore all the rest of the year? Like IA-05 or GA-01? You know, under the radar stays under the radar.
Nothing sour about Tim Mahoney’s race being “further downgraded.” That’s just another compelling piece of evidence that these published forecasts always lag the situation on the ground. They always lag. Always.
I downgraded the Mahoney race to Safe Repub the day I read the news. What was Sabato waiting for? They always wait. The professional prognosticators are always behind. Always.
They are also behind in a dozen or more other House races today. We just don’t know which ones they are. But let me guess. The next belated upgrades will include TX-10 (our “Texas Law”-man Larry Joe Doherty vs their Marry-up McCaul), NC-05 (our “Coach” Carter vs Virginia Foxx), and NC-10 (our Daniel Johnson vs their Patrick McHenry) among others, maybe even IA-05 and GA-01.
WY-AL: I was wondering if Trauner could pull this off all under the radar, but with the recent round of polling and now the DCCC’s spending, this race has been blown wide open. I’m not sure who that favors, either.
KS-02: What happened here to take this from Leans D to Toss-up?
MN-06: Safe R straight to Toss-up. Boom. Heheh.
IN-03: Wow, Safe R to Leans R, a two stage gain.
NM-02: I’m impressed we’re now leans D on this. Sweeping the entire New Mexico plate is closer and closer!