Fortynine Senate Republicans entered the 2008 elections and 41 or 42 will be left. The result seems to have triggered a mini-boomlet of retirements from the class of 2010: Sam Brownback, Mel Martinez, Chuck Grassley, and George Voinovich. Kay Bailey Hutchison may also be adding herself to this list.
The combination has had a profound effect on the political composition of the remaining Republicans. Sure, the three most noderate Republican Senators are still there in the persons of Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Arlen Specter but the ground behing them has moved a lot. Ten of the next twelve Republicans (based on Progressive Punch scores from the 2007/2008 session) are either gone or have announced their retirements. By contrast, only four of the bottom thirtyfour will be gone and one, Larry Craig, was replaced by a similarly conservative Republican.
The list of the departed or departing includes Gordon Smith (43.85), Norm Coleman (possibly, 33.42), George Voinovich (31.37), Ted Stevens (26.63), Chuck Hagel (23.84), John Warner (23.31), Pete Domenici ((22.62), Chuck Grassley ((16.27), John Sununu (15.95), and Mel Martinez (15.32). Overall, the ten from 2008 had an average Progressive Punch score of 21.18 while those staying for the next session average a paltry 12.63. Retirements and defeats will continue to drive that number even lower.
By comparison, 13 new Republicans were elected to the House in 2006. The 13 had a combined Progressive Punch average of 4.58. Three of the 13 were defeated for re-election either in a primary (David Davis) or the general election (Bill Sali, Tim Walberg). Twenty new Republicans were elected to the House and two were elected to the Senate in 2008. The new blood is pretty likely more conservative than the members who are replaced.
The once dominant Republican House class of 1994 has been reduced to 15 members. Two of them, Todd Tiahrt and Tom Latham, are likely candidates for the Senate vacancies just announced. John Shadegg and possibly Frank LoBiondo are targets for 2010 House races. The times, they are a-changin’.
Voinovich and Grassley will be gone.
I know it’s speculation, but nothing more at this point.
and I’ve also been talking with political junkies in the real world. Although anything can happen, no one seems to think Grassley is very likely to retire.
afflicts the Republican caucuses in state legislatures, no doubt. I know it’s an issue in Iowa. Not only have the Republicans lost their majorities in the state House and Senate (that happened in 2006), each cycle more Republican moderates either retire or are defeated. If they are replaced by Republicans, it’s a more conservative Republican.
They are boxing themselves into a corner.