Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)
Tiahrt (R) 37
Sebelius (D) 47
Moran (R) 36
Sebelius (D) 48
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…
Contradicting that earlier GOP primary poll Tiahrt leads Moran 24-19.
“Yet here we have Gov. Kathleen Sebelius coming in with a solid 56-37 approval rating, including a surprisingly good 42-54 among Republicans, which is important given that Republicans make up half the state’s voters. In the head-to-head matchups, Sebelius, gets about a third of those voters. Independents, another quarter of the voter pool, like her at a 63-27 clip. If those numbers held up, she’d make history by having a Democrat represent Kansas in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1939.”
Run Kathleen, run!
She has better name rec than the potential opponents.
She gets good results, but I suspect that every voter in Kansas knows who she is and has an opinion about her. So I think Kansas is just really hard at the federal level.
She’ll need to run hard if she wants to do this.
They’d tested another democrat against Moran and Tiahrt because I think we’ve all assumed its either Sebelius or bust for this seat, so it would have been nice to see if that really was the case.
There’s definitely some good and mixed results in this. She certainly starts out in a good position but she is under 50 and in a deep red state like Kansas, that makes it far from a done deal.
Those are great numbers for Sebelius. Definitely not a shoo-in to win numbers, as you’d think most of the undecideds would be Republicans who’d come home to the R candidate in the end, especially if the more moderate R won. I had thought this would be a toss up if she ran, but she might be a slight favorite with these numbers. Since she hasn’t been selected for the Obama cabinet, I’ve suspected she’d run if she thought she might win. With these numbers, she should definitely run. And, if she runs and loses, Obama can always give her a cabinet position (something always opens up after a couple of years).
Official: Sebelius near top for health post
I’m sure there are other recent examples from both parties.
…daughter of a popular governor who had great numbers up until labor day when (no doubt helped by Bob Dole on the presidential ticket in 1996) Sam Brownback began coming back with a vengenace.
An example of why early poll numbers in heavily Democratic or Republican states should be taken with a certain degree of skepticism as partisan pulls often times grow a lot stronger the closer you get to election day.
Doesn’t mean these race in tough races are out of bounds. Just don’t count your chickens before they hatch. And any coasting like Ben Nelson did will be fatal.