I got this email from the Murphy campaign:
“We’re pleased that domestic absentee ballots are starting to be counted today,” said Henry T. Berger. “The people of the 20th Congressional District need their votes counted without endless delays, so they can be represented in Congress as quickly as possible during these tough economic times. We are confident that once all the absentee ballots are counted, Scott Murphy will win this election.”
In Delaware County, the first county where absentee votes have been completely counted to date, Scott Murphy won the absentee ballot count by 20 votes. On Election Day, Tedisco won Delaware County. There is a Republican registration advantage of 63,000 to 48,000 there.
Exciting news. While Muprhy did shocking well in Delaware county to begin he still lost it narrowly. To be picking up twenty absentee ballots there is a huge indicator. Murphy also gained about a hundred votes when the total was certified. Murphy’s campaign also sites a 16 vote gain in Dutchess, not bad but an indicator that the margins are razor thin in all the counties so far but still favoring Murphy, like the General itself.
The best news is that Murphy’s three best counties were all strong overrepresented in the absentee county and that should strengthen his advantage, while Saratoga’s share fell significantly. So, when Washington, Warren and Columbia come in this whole thing should be wrapped up for Murphy, even if he didn’t win Reneslauer county like he should have.
I’m beginning to feel very confident that Murphy should win this in the end by a few hundred votes. Still. Way too close for comfort.
UPDATE: http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…
Read through that link. He’s challenging a huge set of Democratic absentee ballots cast from people who live primarily downstate but have homes in Columbia county and vote there. Its legal, and has been proven legal, but in a cheap and disgustingly desperate move he’s challenging these votes, which are almost entirely Democratic. Murphy’s margin in Columbia would be about twice as large if not that.
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Murphy has picked up 40 votes in Columbia today as well. And he’s gained 10 votes in Rensaelaer with 49 left to be opened. So that we know of so far, Murphy has had a net gain of 86 votes with his most favorable counties not even reporting yet. Can Saratoga offset his lead?
That’s good enough for me.
most of us expected this to happen. Right after election night, we got word of the composition of those absentee ballots, and rightly estimated that they leaned to Murphy by more than election-day voters.
Yet the supposed experts on TV and in traditional print media kept repeating the fact that there was more GOP absentee ballots, as if that was a surprise given the district’s makeup.
Basically, we’re a hell of a lot smarter and more knowledgeable than the pundits.
I think the old adage about absentee ballots favoring the Republicans has to be thrown out. I no longer believe it.
I wonder how it feels for them to be on the losing side of a close election.