TX-10/24/32: Deep In the Heart of Texas

Crossposted at DailyKos

I’ve always wanted to go hard after a white Southern suburban district in one of the three Southern megalopolises (Atlanta, Dallas/Ft. Worth, and Houston). To win a Southern district, conventional wisdom is that as a starting point the GOP Presidential candidate has to have gotten less than 55% in said district, and the most tempting three are in Texas. There’s the 10th District (Houston to Austin) and a pair of DFW metroplex district, the 32nd and 24th. Lets take a look at them.

Texas’s 10th Congressional District (Houston to Austin)

As far as Houston goes (sort of), there’s the 10th Congressional District (map), which McCain won 55-43. The 10th is a politically incoherent district-it stretches from Houston’s suburbs where over a third of the population is to downtown Austin, which casts about 40% of the vote. In between the two are a bunch of Republican rural counties. At first look, its an intriguing target- its current member is Michael McCaul, who is only a three term incumbent who has struggled to outperform the Republican presidential nominee. In other words, he’s got almost no personal appeal. A lot of people point to this as Democrats best hope for a pick up in the Lone Star State.

I’m not so sure that its the best way to go for a single reason-you’re going to have to spend a truckload and a half of money to win it because you have to buy media time in not only the hugely expensive Houston media market but also Austin as well. McCaul has access to a ton of personal wealth and can draw on that at any time.

We do have some things going for us in this district:

a)Our candidate in the race, Jack McDonald, raised $300,000 in 5 weeks. That’s a nice chunk of change, and those are the sort of numbers you’d need to be competitive. At very minimum, to win the 10th, you’re going to have to spend 1.75 million or so, and more likely close to 2 million.

b)If hugely popular Houston mayor Bill White ends up as our Senate candidate, there’s the potential that his coattails could help McDonald in the Harris County portion of the district.

c)McCaul’s fundraising numbers blew chunks this quarter, raising only $97k. That said, he can always write himself a check.

Texas’s 32nd Congressional District (Highland Park-University Park-Irving)

The other seats that look promising are in the DFW metroplex.

As tempting of a target as the 24th is, on paper its not the best target in the DFW area (yet); if the DCCC gave me a couple million dollars and forced me to spend it in a single Texas district, I’d spend it in the Texas 32nd (map)(assuming we had a good candidate). Why? First off, McCain only got a paltry 53% of the vote here. Barack Obama did not heavily contest Texas and still got 46% of the vote here. With a full on push, he would have probably come very close to winning it outright. Then there’s the trending-Bush carried the 32nd with 64% in 2000 and 60% in 2004. That’s a staggering 11 point drop in 8 years and 6 points difference in a single 4 year cycle. In other words, the GOP performance here is dropping like a rock.

It gets better than just the raw numbers-the demographics here are very encouraging. There’s a distinct reason why Martin Frost chose to run here instead of in the 24th District after the DeLaymander, and Martin Frost was no dummy. It’s 36.2% Hispanic and 7.9% African American, which is a fantastic base to build off of for a Democratic candidate. But it gets even better, the bulk of Dallas’s Jewish community lives in the University Park and Highland Park portions of the 32nd.

Now, lets talk about the incumbent, Pete Sessions. Sessions, though he’s been in Congress for awhile, isn’t as entrenched in his district as you think he might be. Sessions originally represented the 5th District from 1997 to 2002 when he moved into the 32nd because the 5th got more Democratic. The 32nd was then massively rejiggered in the DeLaymander to crack Martin Frost’s old 24th District, and he got a bunch of new turf that spells long term trouble for him. His district is shaky enough for him that he had to have W fly into his district the night before the election for a big rally to put him over the top. Finally, he’s the current chair of the RNCC-dropping money here simply to make his life miserable is far from the worst idea I’ve heard.

Another good thing about the 32nd is that unlike the 10th, the 32nd is in a single media market, albeit the gigantic Dallas-Ft. Worth one. You’d get more bang for your advertising bucks here than you would in the 10th, having to split ad buys between Houston and Austin.

As far as a bench in the district is concerned, there are two or three interesting possibilities in the Texas House. The best fit, in my opinion would be Kirk England who represents part of the 32nd in Irving-the downside being that he lives in Grand Prairie which is in the 24th. There’s also Rafael Anchía, who represents the 103rd District and Roberto Alonzo in 104. I’m not completely sure that a Latino couldn’t win this district, but it is probably better suited to a white Martin Frost-ish candidate. Still, with a 44%+ minority base, its far from inconceivable that a Latino could do it, especially with a huge voter registration campaign in the Latino friendly parts of the district.

Texas’s 24th Congressional District (Carrolton-Colleyville-Grand Prairie)

The  Texas 24th is a similar district to the 32nd, but its a little less appealing on some fronts and more appealing on others:

-Kenny Marchant has been the State Rep for Carrolton forever and a day and probably has a better hold on the 24th than Sessions does in the 32nd

-McCain got 55% here vs 53% in the 32nd, Obama got 44% vs. 46%

-there’s not nearly the Jewish community in the 24th that there is in the 32nd

-Marchant isn’t going to be crisscrossing the country as RNCC chair like Sessions will and can campaign full time (but on the other hand he has less access to cold hard cash than Sessions does)

-the Latino component is half as big as the 32nd, though its an open question as to how many in the Latino community are registrable

What is better:

+ conversely, we almost have to have done better among white voters here, and the African American component is higher than in the 32nd

+ 24 is falling off that GOP performance cliff even faster than 32, having lost 13 points in 8 years, and *****10***** points from ’04 to ’08

+ From ’00 to ’06, the 24th had a higher Latino population gain than did 32nd (79,641 vs. 44,824)

+ 24 also had much higher growth influxes among AA voters (28,387 vs 6,716) and Asians (23,600 vs. -1,596)

The bench is largely the same, though as mentioned, Kirk England lives in this district and not 32. Long term, the GOP is going to have to draw another Democratic DFW district (knowing the TXGOP they’ll probably draw it as a Minority Majority Latino district for Anchia), and everyone knows it. Thus, there’s probably less urgency to take the risk and run here vs the 10th-the situation with Harris’s new seat is much more muddled than the DFW seat.

All three districts look as tempting as BBQ brisket, with the 32nd being the best on paper, the 24th having the fastest falling GOP performance, and McCaul having the weakest hold on his district.