A month or so ago, there were dueling polls regarding how deep in the shit Specter is. Rasmussen breaks the tie:
Pat Toomey 51%
Arlen Specter 30%
Some Other Candidate 9%
Not sure 10%
As for favorables:
Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980.
Toomey, who served in the House from 1999 to 2005, earns positive reviews from 66% and negative comments from just 19%.
Jeebus. That favorability comparison is only slightly better than Patterson/Cuomo (among Dem primary voters). And Toomey’s lack of unknowns (15%) means that Specter is trapped. Specter has to go nuclear in order to save his seat. In the event that he somehow makes it out of the primary, his general election base would be completely alienated and he’d be left with no money.
I’m hoping that the NRSC pulls a Chaffee, blowing a wad of dough on this unwinnable race and alienating potential donors.
it’s pretty clear Specter is toast. This doesnt seem to be something he can recover from
Toomey’s got the activist base locked up. There aren’t enough moderate Republicans left and Specter won’t have the ground-game to turn them out. He can fight a vicious TV-based campaign, but I don’t think that’ll put him over the top. It’ll just poison the general election audience for the pair of them.
But in the meantime, he’ll make Toomey unelectable for us.
heavy weight Dem has jumped in this race. I really think even if Specter wins, he’ll be too bloodied for the general.
Where are the strong Dem challengers?!?!
I never expected to see him this bad so early. Hopefully it doesn’t depress him too much and he stays in the race.
oh man what a sad end to a sad career. I wonder if the media will shake its finger at the GOP for throwing out a long-term moderate incumbent the way they did to us for primarying Lieberman? At least Lamont could have won statewide, Toomey is pissing this seat away for the Republicans.
I’m no fan of Arlen Specter (I can tell horror stories from meetings with him when I worked in DC) – but it seems to be in a bit of poor taste to talk about a man engaged in a long term battle with cancer as “a dead man” — “toast” seems like a bit more humane way of referring to him.
(Not trying to pull some PC shit here…but there are a lot of us with cancer and other “incurable” diseases who have been considered “dead” long before our time, so maybe this just personally grates on my senses.)
It is being reported now, but is not confirmed.