Rasmussen (4/21, likely voters, no trendlines):
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 30
Pat Toomey (R): 51
(MoE: 4.5%)
Wow… I (and everyone else in the blogosphere) knew that Arlen Specter was facing serious trouble in his primary re-match against Pat Toomey, given that he barely won in 2004 and since then Pennsylvania has been steadily bluening, has closed primaries, and a small but crucial chunk of the state’s GOP moderates re-registered in 2008 to participate in the hot Democratic presidential primary. But this poll is pretty staggering, especially when you also see that while Specter is universally-known among the all-Republican sample and has a favorable/unfavorable of 42/55, Toomey clocks in at 66/19. Specter is somewhere well past toast; he’s looking more like that carbonized crud that collects at the bottom of the toaster.
I note one problem with this poll: it doesn’t include Peg Luksik, who has very little money but has the pro-life credentials and track record (including 44% in the 1990 GOP gubernatorial primary against a pro-choice candidate). Luksik has the potential to siphon off religious right voters from Toomey, who’s running as more of a free-market fundamentalist and wasn’t a values hardliner when he was in the House. But Luksik has a bit of “has-been” about her, having peaked long ago, and with much of the sound and fury on the GOP side coming on economic issues right now (in this same sample, Rasmussen finds 79/12 favorability for the teabaggers’ movement, and 82% agreement on the statement that the federal government has “too much money and power”), she’s not poised to get much traction this time. With Toomey already grabbing 51% of the vote, it doesn’t seem to matter much what Luksik does.
So, how will these numbers shape the race to come? Will they prompt Specter to rethink his firm stance on running as a Republican? Does he become an independent (or join Connecticut for Lieberman… which would then need a new name, like Connecticut and Pennsylvania for Lieberman and Specter, CaPfLaS for short…)? The problem with that is, he would need to be running against an Alan Schlesinger-type to be able to win the general by grabbing the center and center-right, and Toomey is much more formidable than that. And, on the Dem side, does Specter’s imminent peril start prompting top-tier Democrats (Joe Sestak or maybe Allyson Schwartz) to jump in, despite Joe Torsella’s big fundraising headstart? Or does at some point, if the polls get bad enough, Specter just say “f*@k it” and walk away from re-election, leaving the GOP to wallow in its own self-defeating stupidity? (Speculation already underway in omarka‘s diary.)
is if the NRSC helps him with a massive campaign to convince people that Specter is the best they can get out of the now-blue
stateCommonwealth of Pennsylvania.Haha
They’ll have to drag him out kicking and screaming.
I think the poll exaggerates Toomey’s lead a bit, but I do expect him to win. I think it’s better than 50-50 that Specter runs as an independent.
given that sestak and schwartz both have healthy house accounts. but it’s an interesting question of how an “independent” Arlen plays. if he’s more popular among dems than GOPers, he might give the election to Toomey.
How likely is it that Specter can run a successful re-registration campaign and get those moderates back in the party? Is he known for having that good of campaign machinery? Seems to me if Obama and Clinton could pull all those voters in just a few months, he could do it in the year-and-a-half (or so) he has left, but it all depends on how good an operation he runs.
Both are vastly more popular than their GOP primary opponents to moderates of both parties and independents but have the almost impossible challenge of energizing this group of non-regulars to participate in a primary and/or to register in the first place.
the only way they do it, it seems to take a position on an issue that antagonizes the “gop regulars” even more. it’s a fascinating political problem.
Specter down by 6 points at this would be nice. Keep him in the GOP primary, at the very leastm make him initially announce for the GOP primary, and if he were to bail after that (but before the primary) he’d look like a loser/scaredy cat/sissy.
Now if he runs as an Independent, we might get Toomey, worst of all.
On the other hand, if Specter just ignores the polls, cool, easy pickup.