Found this J. Moore Methods poll over at Calitics. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi leads among likely voters (36% have no opinion). (Rupf is Republican Warren Rupf, Sheriff of Contra Costa County.)
| Garamendi | Rupf | DeSaulnier | Buchanan | |
| Support: | 24 | 17 | 13 | 10 |
| Known: | 80 | 20 | 39 | 45 |
| Favorable: | 35 | 9 | 16 | 17 |
| Unfavorable: | 12 | 9 | 13 | 12 |
While Garamendi does have a commanding lead in the polls and the name rec, Senator Mark DeSaulnier or Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan can try and catch up, but it will be a long shot when facing Garamendi’s high name rec and campaign war chest. DeSaulnier is a great progressive in the state legislature and I would like him to win, but no one knows if it will be enough. For now this race is Garamendi’s to lose.
I guess Contra Costa County is still receptive enough of Republicans, at the local level, to elect them to a countywide/near countywide position. But I doubt he’d stand much of a chance in the general. In the previous lines (though those would surely be heavily Dem today), back in the 90s, he might stand an ok chance. But not now. Maybe im not surprised they elected a Republican sheriff. I remember reading an article about an East Bay city taking a hard line approach on illegal immigration and obviously illegal immigration is an issue many voters take into consideration when electing a sheriff. So while they may be otherwise socially liberal, who knows, maybe theyre conservative on immigration.
No doubt Garamendi has a large advantage in terms of name ID – but I wouldn’t be so sure it will hold
We don’t even know yet when the election will be (a date won’t be set until Tauscher is confirmed).
A special election (especially during the summer) will invariably be a low turnout affair — meaning that broad name identification is less important in some ways than on the ground organization and fundraising. I would assume that candidates who have recently won campaigns in the district (Buchanan and DeSaulnier) would have more of a local organization in place than a statewide official like Garamendi – and are more in tune with the local political environment. And remember that because of campaign finance laws, Garamendi can’t transfer funds from his gubernatorial campaign into a federal race.
Garamendi probably is still the favourite here, but I would expect this race to tighten up considerably as the campaign actually goes on, and any of the 3 leading Democrats could easily end up winning a primary.