It’s midnight madness here at SSP, and all old polls must go before they get too musty-odored.
Research 2000 for the Great Orange Satan (4/27-29, likely voters):
Roy Barnes (D): 44
John Oxendine (R): 46Roy Barnes (D): 45
Karen Handel (R): 39Thurbert Baker (D): 42
John Oxendine (R): 47Thurbert Baker (D): 42
Karen Handel (R): 40David Poythress (D): 43
John Oxendine (R): 47David Poythress (D): 43
Karen Handel (R): 39
(MoE: ±4%)
Daily Kos took a look at the Georgia gubernatorial race late last week, and found the Democratic field in competitive shape against Republicans John Oxendine (the state Insurance Comm’r) and Karen Handel (Georgia’s SoS). Here’s the wrinkle, though: R2K pegged the African-American vote at 28% of the electorate, which is awfully close to the 30% mark that black voters hit in last year’s presidential election, according to CNN’s exit poll.
The Democratic nominee will have to wage a rigorous campaign in order to keep many of these voters from taking an electoral hiatus, lest they suffer the same fate of the uninspired campaign of Democrat Mark Taylor in the 2006 gubernatorial race, when African-American voters made up just 16% of the electorate. Perhaps the nomination of Attorney General Thurbert Baker (himself an African-American) might help rev up the base vote, or perhaps not — after all, a recent Strategic Vision poll suggested that ex-Gov. Roy Barnes would handily beat Baker for the nomination if he decided to run.
R2K also took a quick look at the Senate race:
Jim Marshall (D): 40
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 48Roy Barnes (D): 43
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 47
Despite possessing a generally more congenial attitude than Georgia’s Senior Senator, wingnut punk Saxby Chambliss, Isakson’s favorability score is not exactly impressive: 47-41. That’s a markedly weaker score than the 55-37 rating Isakson earned in Strategic Vision’s polling earlier this month. But the question must be begged: with most of the state’s top Democratic talent gravitating toward the open Governor’s race, who wants to take on Isakson? Barnes has only expressed interest in a gubernatorial comebacker, and Marshall seems like a pretty long longshot to jump into this type of race. This could be an ideal situation for the recruitment of a well-to-do self-funding candidate to help shoulder the party’s ticket, if Georgia Democrats could manage to find such a candidate.
UPDATE: Lots of discussion underway in fatcathobbes’s diary.
So says Teagan Goddard.
Isaakson should be favored for re-election, but I don’t see Barnes or Marshall running against him. I really don’t care for Jim Marshall, but he could resonate with the voters of Georgia. Roy Barnes could make things interesting, but I think the GOP could run against his record as Georgia governor.
The Governor’s race should be a tossup. Georgia is a moderately conservative state, but they have a long history of electing Democratic Governors.
I believe Obama only lost this state by six poins… the most liberal senator (suposedly) only lost by six here so a more conservadem could easily make that six points up on policy. As for SC that state will become more liberal just as NC and VA have. It may take two more election cycles but I garuntee you it will.. GA is strange state to me. I think it has some democratic spots that are far outweighed by the rural areas. I am not sure when this state, or AL or LA will be competative but then again, who’d have thought we’d have a dem in ID-1 or a dem gov of WY?
You are right, I should have done my homework…. this time I did though and in 2000 NC was won by bush 56-43 percent and now look at what it has become. Granted SC doesn’t have the college base or the research triangle but it is a coastal state and those are all trending bluer for different reasons.
16% turnout is absolutely pathetic. It would probably help to have a black running for either governor or senator even if he or she didn’t have much of a chance. At least the other Democrat would then have a chance. At 16% turnout, no Democrat wins in Georgia statewide.