Yesterday Taniel at the Campaign Diaries blog posted about 68 Democratic-held U.S. House seats that could potentially be competitive in 2010. Iowa’s third Congressional district is not on that list.
IA-03 did not make Stuart Rothenberg’s list of competitive House seats for 2010 either.
The National Republican Congressional Committee released a list of 51 targeted Democratic-held House districts in January. Lo and behold, IA-03 is not on that list either.
I realize that Boswell only won the district with 56.3 percent of the vote in 2008, but I don’t hear any chatter from Iowa Republicans about recruiting a candidate to run against him. The focus is on the governor’s race and the Iowa House.
I bring this up because the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has kept Boswell on its list of “Frontline Democrats” for 2010. John Deeth recently noticed that Boswell is “by far the senior member” of the 41 Frontline candidates. Almost all of them were first elected to Congress in 2006 or 2008. The others with more terms under their belt represent districts significantly more conservative than IA-03 with its partisan voter index of D+1.
For Deeth, this is yet another sign that IA-03 deserves better than Boswell. I view it as a sign that the DCCC is wrong. Boswell definitely needed to be in the Frontline program the first five times he ran for re-election, but he was a safe six-term incumbent in 2008, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be a safe seven-term incumbent in 2010.
According to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, Iowa’s third district had about 433,000 registered voters as of May 1, 2009. Of those, about 399,000 were “active voters.” More than 156,000 of the active voters in IA-03 are registered Democrats. Only about 118,000 are registered Republicans, and about 124,000 are registered no-party voters.
Why should you care if the DCCC erroneously classifies Boswell as vulnerable? Frontline Democrats are exempt from paying DCCC dues, which are used to support Democrats in competitive races across the country.
Look, I would still prefer to elect a new Democrat to IA-03 in order to avoid a potential matchup of Boswell and Tom Latham in 2012. But since Boswell has no plans to retire, let him pay his DCCC dues just like every other House incumbent whose seat is not threatened next year.
On a related note, Deeth recently cited Progressive Punch lifetime ratings as an argument for replacing Boswell. It’s worth noting that Boswell’s voting record in the current Congress is much better than his lifetime Progressive Punch score suggests. (For instance, he was not among the Blue Dogs who voted against President Barack Obama’s budget blueprint.) Yes, IA-03 should be represented by a more progressive Democrat than Boswell, but I’m cutting him slack as long as he’s not casting egregious votes in the current Congress.
I see no reason to keep him in the Frontline program, though. We will genuinely be playing defense in dozens of House districts next year. Until there is some sign that Republicans are making a serious play for IA-03, Boswell should pay his DCCC dues.
Just curious whether you think Obama’s strength in Iowa translated into an easy win for Boswell in 2008. If so, does this mean he might be more vulnerable than the 2008 election results would suggest? Also, is there likely to be any backlash against Democrats as a result of the IA Supreme Court gay marriage decision?
Boswell won by nearly 44,000 votes in 2008 against Kim Schmett, generally considered a weak opponent. As you note, he’s the most senior Democrat on the list. All others were first elected in 2006 or later except for Baron Hill and Ciro Rodriguez who lost in 2004. The strangest omission from the list is veteran Congressman Paul Kanjorski from PA-11 won won by 9,228 votes.
Republicans would be inclined to give Boswell a free pass this cycle. That’s hardly the recipe for inclusion in the frontline program. If Iowa loses a seat he will probably have to go up against Tom Latham in a district including Des Moines (Polk County) that would be slightly Democratic but less friendly than his current district. I’d rate Latham the favorite based on energy and stamina.
Very close races don’t seem to repeat. Only four House districts had races decided by 10,000 votes or fewer in both 2006 and 2008: CA-4, MI-7, OH-15, and NY-29. All were held by Republicans going into the 2008 election but three flipped (MI-7, OH-15,NY-29) in 2008.