VA-Gov: Deeds Takes Big Lead in PPP’s Final Poll

Public Policy Polling is going to release their final VA-Gov survey very shortly. Tom Jensen teased us with this:

Looks like a tight race in Virginia… for second place. The undecideds seem to almost all be moving in the same direction.

I’m not going to call the race like I did the Saturday before the election for Kay Hagan based on early returns from our final poll because preferences in this race have been so fluid. But it doesn’t look like things are going to be as close on Tuesday as the polling in the last week suggested.

What do you think the numbers will look like? For reference, their prior numbers are here. We’ll post the results just as soon as PPP makes them available.

UPDATE (James): It’s out.

Public Policy Polling (6/6-7, likely voters, 5/28-31 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (27)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (24)

Brian Moran (D): 24 (22)

Undecided: 10 (26)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Wow. What a huge movement for Creigh Deeds in just a few short weeks. Remember, Deeds was lagging at 14% in PPP’s 5/1-3 poll, but a well-timed endorsement from the Washington Post was clearly the catalyst for Deeds’ remarkable surge — and probably also a sign that a sizable share of Moran and McAuliffe’s support was pretty soft in the first place. Indeed, in the vote-rich DC burbs in Northern Virginia, where Deeds has been almost a non-factor for much of the race, Deeds has now pulled ahead of Moran by a 38-35 margin, with 20% going to McAuliffe.

And speaking of McAuliffe, take a look at his horrid favorability rating; among Democratic primary voters, just as many voters have a favorable opinion of the ex-DNC chair as those who dislike him (40%-40%). That’s pretty brutal. If Deeds can hold onto his lead on Tuesday, we may be dodging a major bullet here.

Of course, the usual caveats apply: Pegging the primary voter universe is a notoriously tough business (especially in an ultra-low turnout state like Virginia), and the ground game will be key on Tuesday. For now, though, the momentum is clearly at the back of Deeds.

39 thoughts on “VA-Gov: Deeds Takes Big Lead in PPP’s Final Poll”

  2. Factiods like having him beat Moran in NoVa would be good for him to get a bounce against McDonnell.

    Seeing this, I would probably switch my vote to Deeds in order to give him the strongest win possible. I think this will be a “stick your finger in the wind” moment for many VA Dems.  

  3. At least McAuliffe’s campaign helped stimulate the economy. All that money spent on advertising kept people employed.

    Deeds and Moran, campaigning against McAuliffe, should have told voters to read Crashing The Gate.

  4. the momentum’s clearly on Deeds’ side, but there’s something a little strange about how rapid and extreme the shift has been. Before the Post endorsement, McAuliffe was riding high. As soon as Deeds won that nod, he suddenly soaked up all those undecideds and is now polling at 40%? I realize the key for him was always going to be cracking NoVa, and the Post endorsement couldn’t have hurt on that front, but it just seems like such an overwhelming shift in such a short period of time…how solid do we think it is? Considering how fluid these numbers have been all along, couldn’t his lead be just as soft now as McAuliffe’s was a week or two ago? Especially since it seems to have been catalyzed by a newspaper endorsement (not exactly the typical event that brings thousands of primary voters to switch allegiances).

    I’m hoping Deeds wins, not just because I like him but because I really want to hold VA-Gov in November, but as someone who was a very active Obama supporter before and during the primaries, I’ll never forget that softer-than-cotton-candy lead he built in those five days between Iowa and New Hampshire, and how it evaporated without warning. Deeds supporters in Virginia should do their best to avoid complacency.

  6. In 2005 race for attorney general, Deeds was behind in all the polls and then ended up losing to McDonnell by less than 400 votes and got 49.95% of the votes. I think that Deeds should be able to beat McDonnell in rematch based on this due to the fact alone that more people vote in the Governor’s race than the AG’s race.

  7. what a comeback.  Looking forward to those post-primary polls.

    Would be very interesting if we lose the NJ governorship, but hold the VA one, despite the usual trend of things.

  8. Jerome Armstrong says it’ll come down to turnout. If it’s high, then it’s Deeds. If it’s low, then he seems to sort of imply that Moran could pull it out. He doesn’t come right out and make that prediction, but he insists that McAuliffe and Moran have strong field operations, and Deeds doesn’t have anything. (High and low, obviously, are relative terms… It’s going to be a pretty low-turnout primary overall.)

    I don’t know enough about Virginia voters to make a prediction (though of course I will if there’s a prediction thread), but this has been a great ride.

    Is it just McDonnell for the GOP, or is there a token other candidate?

  10. CAN SOMEONE TELL ME ABOUT DEEDS?

    I lived in Virginia in the 1980s, but I never heard of Deeds.  Can someone please give me a synopsis of who he is — what his ideas, accomplishments are, etc?

    I know this — Terry McAuliffe is a bum.  It’s people like him that hurt Democrats for many years.  He was on Chicago Tonight, a TV program, a year or so ago, and with a grin that said “I’m smarter than anyone” declared with 100 percent conviction that there were four reasons Kerry lost to Bush.

    He was right about one — the Swift Boat attacks.  The other three were so ridiculous that no one could ever guess them.  The bottom line is that he believes that ideas don’t matter, records of accomplishment or lack thereof don’t matter, and plans for the future/plans for governance don’t matter.

    I’m guessing he lost, if he loses, because he has no ideas or plans and voters think his accomplishments, digging for money, are irrelevant to being an effective governor.

    I hope he gets his __ kicked.  Democrats — and voters — don’t need people like him in power.  Let him fund campaigns and be invisible.

    Shalom,

    ZWrite

  11. and i can’t remember a newspaper endorsement having this much power before.

    generally, low turnout primaries require campaigns to practically stop by voters’ doors, grab them by the hand and get them to the polls.  does deeds have that kind of operation?  and are unions or outside groups who do this kind of work doing it?

  13. I mentioned before that I preferred T-Mac for the nomination (I won’t reitterate my reasons), but Deeds is a solid candidate and I feel like he will win the Democratic nomination.  If anything, he has proven to be an effective campaigner and has gotten more bang for the bucks than T-Mac or Moran.

    I think the VA-governor’s race will be close, but Deeds has the momentum and hasn’t been roughed up in the primary.  I’ve been impressed with how he’s delivered his campaign message and his ability to win support in NoVa and the Southern portion of Virginia.

    After the primary, I feel like he will gain some additional support from the Moran/T-Mac camps that will only assist him in winning this race in November.  

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