If South Carolina does gain a district, as projected, it will be possible to make that new district a second majority African American one.
Here’s one such map that does this:
(Full Resolution)
Charleston:
Columbia:
The racial demographics of the two districts are:
District 6 (Charleston based):
Black: 341,718 (53.4%)
White: 263,579 (41.2%)
Other (inc. Hispanic): 34,797 (5.4%)
District 7 (Columbia based):
Black: 357,623 (55.9%)
White: 242,185 (37.9%)
Other: 39,613 (6.2%)
Even if the DOJ doesn’t mandate the creation of new African American district, the Republican controlled legislature may want to create one anyway, since it would shore up the 1st and 2nd districts, both of which had strong challenges last year, and take some Black voters out of the 5th, which would go from 32 to 25 percent Black, though it would remain unlikely that they will be competitive there until Spratt retires.
support SC and, apparently, Indiana now.
Regarding your map, don’t you think it’s likely that the Republicans would try to remove Spratt at the same time? Were I them I would not want to give up his seniority and influence, but I am not them. . .
But I’m not sure if it will hold up. The African-American population has actually sightly shrunk relative to the rest of the population. However, they could argue that 29% of the population is Black, and 2/7 is ~28.6%, so it’s only fair.
Of course, if they were privy to making that argument, Texas would have to add 3 new Hispanic-majority districts and 1 new African-American-majority (or plurality) one.
First off, if I were drawing a new African American district in South Carolina, I’d draw it with Bakari Sellers, a State Rep from Bamberg County, in mind while giving Jim Clyburn an Orangeburg based district. Sellers is one of the future stars for the Dems and would present a new face for African Americans in the state.
If we’re basing seats by straight up populations of African Americans, then Virginia would also get another majority or majority minority seat. One would have to think that the base of such a district would be Virginia’s 4th, which is over 30% African American.
To pull that one off, you would have to play mix and match between the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts, with African American portions of the 1st being used as backfill for the 3rd’s losses. Such swaps would likely cost us the 2nd and 5th but would lock in a Democratic 4th CD for a long while.
I also believe that by straight population, Texas Latinos would be due 3 more districts and African Americans would also land another district. My guess is that its practically impossible not to draw a Latino plurality or majority seat in the DFW metroplex, so they should end up with something that looks like a more Latino friendly version of the old 24th that used to be Martin Frost’s stomping grounds and my guess is that Rafael Anchia or Kirk England will represent it. Beyond that….maybe another minority friendly seat somewhere in Houston-and that’s a pretty iffy maybe.