9 Competitive Districts for Indiana

In a “now for something completely different” moment, I decided to redistrict a state in such away where all districts would be maximally competitive.  Indiana is ideal for this since it was extremely close in the last election and does not have large enough minority populations to invoke the VRA.

Without further ado:

I used the town totals from the back of this data set to split Lake and LaPorte counties. For the other split counties, notably Marion and Hamilton, I just came up with reasonable numbers for what I wanted the split to be, figuring it would be relatively easy to adjust the lines to make it a reality.

Estimates of margins of victory and political analysis

District 1 (Blue):  Obama by 3500.  Hammond and Terre Haute are balanced against some conservative Indianapolis suburbs. Open seat.

District 2 (Green): Obama by 4900. Loses Michigan City and gain some Conservative territory to the East, but retains its South Bend base assuring Donnelly’s relatively easy reelection.

District 3 (Purple): McCain by 700, the only one he wins. This Fort Wayne based district now gains some Democratic turf in Muncie and Anderson. Souder had challenging races in his old district, so would presumably draw even stronger challenges here.

District 4 (Red): Obama by 5800. Gary and Lake County weigh against a broad swath of conservative turf, setting up a battle royale of Visclosky verses Buyer.  Theoretically the most Democratic district, but the estimates are a bit sketchy for some of the splits.

District 5 (Gold): Obama 1400. Some Democratic turf near the lake and Tippecanoe County weigh against the conservative interior, most notably deep red Kosciuskco.  Open seat.

District 6 (Turquoise): Obama by 3300. Some of the more Democratic parts of Marion weigh against Republican rural areas and suburbs.  Carson will need to convince enough of those folks that it’s okay to send a Muslim to congress that Indianapolis can carry the day.

District 7 (Gray): Obama by 4200.  A good urban suburban mix.  Burton will need to convince those urban voters that his golf habit won’t prevent him from representing them.

District 8 (Lavender): Obama by 3400.  This district is slight more Democratic than the old Eighth, since it picks up Monroe county. Blue Dog Ellsworth should have no trouble.

District 9 (Cyan): Obama by 2600.  I would think that moderate Democrat Hill would have the advantage over the ultra conservative Pence, who may prefer to run in the Sixth, but Hill has never won by particularly large margins, so who knows.