Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Gov primary (Dems):
Neil Abercrombie (D): 42
Mufi Hannemann (D): 22
Undecided: 36
(MoE: ±5%)
Gov general:
Neil Abercrombie (D): 45
James “Duke” Aiona (R): 36
Undecided: 19Mufi Hannemann (D): 44
James “Duke” Aiona (R): 34
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)
For those of you not familiar with the players out here, Neil Abercrombie represents HI-01 in Congress, Mufi Hannemann is the Mayor of Honolulu, and Duke Aiona is the current Lt. Gov. Abercrombie has already pulled the trigger on a run; Hannemann has formed an exploratory committee. It’s pretty interesting that Abercrombie has a material lead in the primary test, given that Hannemann has the better favorables (56-20 vs. 55-33).
I had thought that Hannemann wasn’t too likely to run, but his recent activities indicate otherwise. He does have $660K left over from his mayoral campaign last year he can transfer over to a gov account. On the flipside, he’s 16 years younger than the 70-year-old Abercrombie, and there’s a decent chance Sen. Dan Akaka’s seat will be open in 2012, if Hannemann’s interested in that alternative.
One interesting side note: These two have faced off before, and are 1-and-1 in an unusual set of circumstances. Both men ran for HI-01 in 1986 when the incumbent, Cecil Heftel, ran for governor. Hannemann won the primary, but Abercrombie won the special election to fill the final two months of the term. Hannemann wound up losing to the Republican in the general election.
Speaking of Republicans, Duke Aiona has a decent 44-26 favorability rating, and has already raised $1.5 million. However, he’s charging against the blue tide here – Hawaii’s only ever had one Republican governor (the current incumbent, Linda Lingle), and gave the highest vote percentage to Obama of any state last year. SSP currently rates this race Lean Democrat.
And speaking of Linda Lingle, we also have some Senate numbers:
Dan Inouye (D-inc): 52
Linda Lingle (R): 40
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)
I don’t think anyone expects her to run, but she’s almost certainly the only Republican on any of Hawaii’s islands who could give Inouye a serious challenge. And even still, she trails by double digits with Inouye over 50. She sports better favorables than most governors, but at 51-43, they aren’t great, and are considerably weaker than Senator Dan’s 56-38 rating. SSP currently considers this a Race to Watch, but if Lingle doesn’t bite, it will move to Safe D.
Hawaii will have a 72 year old Governor and two 86 year old Senators. It’s a good thing that Barack Obama didn’t return to Hawaii to start his political career; a youngster like him wouldn’t have had a chance.
I am more worried about the race to replace Abercrombie. We need to make sure its not Ed Case.
About a year ago I went to an environmental engineering convention in Honolulu, Hawaii. Mufi Hannemann, the mayor, gave us a speech about Hawaii’s environmental issues. One environmental issue is garbage, Hawaii imports tons of packaged goods and the garbage stays there. He came off as very smart and knowledgeable.
how small the political community is in Hawaii. It seems like every politician has run against every other politician sometime in the past.
Hawaii’s first governor (as a state) was Republican Bill Quinn. However, he was beaten in 1962, and the Dems held the office until 2002.
It is funny that Case is thinking of running in the 1st District, since he used to represent the 2nd District. Patsy Mink did the same thing in reverse. In her initial congressional stint (1965-77), she represented the 1st. After a fourteen years gap, she was elected to represent the 2nd District and served six terms. Case was her successor.
Last I checked there’s 4 or 5 candidates in there. It seems that the assumption is that Abercrombie will win the Governor’s seat, and Akaka will retire in 2012. That would put the Lt. Governor – the only other statewide elected position in the Aloha State – in a prime position to move up. Gary Hooser’s already got a website up, and Honolulu city councilmen Rod Tam and Donovan Dela Cruz are already filed. Should be an interesting undercard race to watch, as the winner will likely be a favorite for Gov or Senate in the future.