How to Stop the Embarrassment: MN Redistricting 7 Seat Map

Minnesota is going to possibly lose a seat and with a DFL governor, we’ll be able to do some damage.  These districts should pass any compactness laws as nothing is gerrymandered beyond unacceptability.  My 8 seat map is in the works and near done and both of these maps reflect what I think is possible and appropriate for Minnesota, all Dem seats with one GOP dump district.

I did none of this with a computer program or anything like that.  i was fortunate that MN provides all the info I needed to do this with the MnSOS office providing all the vote totals and also precinct maps of every state house seat, which was the main way I broke down the districts by vote and population when I didnt need to break it down to city/township/precinct level.  The state legislature websites has excellent maps with the two I used constantly were a map of the all the state house seats that also showed city boundaries which made it my go to map for figuring out my planned geography.  More importantly though, a precinct map of the entire state showing election results from dark red to dark blue.  I found county population totals for 2007 and when they broke down beyond that point, I wikipediad it which sometimes included 2006 estimates but mainly for 2000 totals and then I used common sense for population movements, figured out the percentage of growth for that county/area, etc to figure out the 2007 population of said city/precinct.  There is certainly some error involved in this but nothing that would alter more than a couple precincts here or there and then my map accounts for current population movement as opposed to 2000, little bit of a trade off there.

Everything is recorded in excel spreadsheets, they look like a hot mess.

map with county lines can be found here: http://s635.photobucket.com/al…

I figured I had three options with Minneapolis/St. Paul. 1. Put each in their own CD and have to expand them, which meant expanding into more Dem friendly suburbs, which in turn would mean I would end up strengthening Paulsen.  2. Put them both into the same CD, making one uber D+35-like district which would then leave behind all Dem burbs currently in the two districts plus a little bit of one of the cities.  I could then gerrymander two suburban seats into two Dem-leaning districts, most likely.  But McCollum lives in a burb just outside of St Paul so while it wouldnt make an Ellison v McCollum, it would mean her district being gerrymandered to be really Dem and then Paulsen would just get beefed up in return as a consequence.  I could put Ellison in a suburban district but well, that’d never work for him.   McCollum could survive it fine probably.  And option 3, which I chose, was to divide up MSP into three districts and pair them with adjacent suburbs, creating 3 solid Dem seats.  This was the more devious and fun way to go.

I will say at first, doing it this way REALLY bugged me but I was being politically minded, I looked at this and thought, that would never happen.  Quite frankly, I think it would have a decent shot after I’ve sat on it.  The map doesn’t look messed up, it puts the cities and suburbs all compactly into three districts and the other districts all make perfect sense.  It’s compact, simple, but really does a lot of damage.  You just have to get past Minneapolis dominating two districts.

CD1,7,8 all stay heavily rural districts with some exurban areas picked up and CD2 is one huge swath of Republican exurbia.

This map would result in a for sure 6/1 delegation as the seat I eliminated was Bachmann’s and Paulsen’s is now a heavy DFL seat.  An open MN-6 would probably make it 5/2 but maybe not.

As for the tables, the first 2008 is new the district’s 2008 total, the second is former districts.  I also did the 2004 totals since many of you asked in other redistrictings what they would be.  And then are the county totals for each one so one would know where to watch for votes and such.  

MN-1 Rep. Walz	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	740228	52/47	51/47	48.5/51	47/51
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Houston County	19515	54	44	48	51
Winona County	49802	58	52	48.8	49.3
Watonwan County	7535	53	44	47.5	48
Steele County	36378	46	51	56	43
Dodge County	19552	44	54	42	57
Wabasha County	21783	47	50	47	52
Olmsted County	76470	51	47	47	52
Mower County	38040	60	37	61	38
Freeborn County	31257	57	41	55	44
Waseca County	19528	45	53	43	56
Blue Earth County	59802	55	42	48	51
Nicollet County	31680	54	44	50	49
Dakota County	121909	46	52	43	57

MN-1 is now more based in the southeast corner and is almost indentical to the 1990’s lines (it just worked out that way), this makes it 1% more for Obama as the southwestern rural counties are the Republican ones while the southeast is heavily DFL.  It now includes some of exurban MSP, but still keeps its rural district title.  Walz lives on the edge of the district and should still be quite safe.

MN-2 OPEN	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	736283	42/56	48/50	38/61	45/54
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Wright County	112870	40	58	38	61
Scott County	126642	44	55	40	60
Carver County	75075	42	57	36	63
Sherburne County	78127	39	60	37	62
Stearns County	81037	39	58	38	60
Anoka County	132044	41	57	40	59
Washington County	7336	43	56	39	60

I combined all the exurban Republican counties from Kline and Bachmann’s districts as they are by far the most Republican in the state and a great population base.  Also, the district took in parts of Hennepin county for population and gerrymandering purposes.  The areas it picked up are exurban for the most part and are extremely Republican, the Lake Minnetonka cities (but not Minnetonka) and also Maple Grove had to be included, and these suburbs lean pretty heavily GOP, as well.

Kline now lives in CD1 but the city he lives in, Lakeville, borders CD2.  I would assume he’d opt to run in the new CD2 as he would certainly not beat Walz and the territory of his included in CD1 are his least favorable counties, and nor would he let Bachmann simply claim CD2 as hers.  Bachmann’s district is simply gone and I would assume she’d move to run here, which  means that I may not have eliminated Bachmann, but actually strengthened her, depending if she could win the primary.  Bachmann could dominate in the caucuses and probably get the GOP endorsement but primary voters would probably be more apt to voting for Kline.  This is a consequence we can live with as at least someone got eliminated still and she is a good fundraiser for us.

MN-3 Rep. Paulsen	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	739257	61/36	52/46	57/41.5	48/51
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Hennepin County	489340	65	33	60	38
Dakota County	249917	52	42	51	48

This district combines Edina, Eden Prarie,, part of Minnetonka, Bloomington, southern Minneapolis and also Eagan in Dakota County.  All of the suburbs are trending Democratic with most of the areas in the district voting for Obama, but also voting for Paulsen, except for Bloomington which went Madia.  Paulsen lives in Eden Prairie and would be in this district, but would certainly get his ass kicked by just about any Dem challenger.  This district is now solid Dem, whatever the political climate.

MN-4 Rep. McCollum	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	739603827	60/36	64/34	58.5/40	62/37
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Ramsey County	499891	66	32	63	36
Washington County	199318	53	45	49	50
Dakota County	22126	58	39	61	37
Anoka County	18098	49.2	48.6	44	55

This district stays pretty much the same except for it adds most of Washington county.  I initially divided MSP up three ways perfectly with some of the St. Paul state house seats going to CD5 but this district then dipped below 60% for Obama.  I wanted to maintain at least 60% in CD4&5 so this district maintains all of it’s Ramsey county territory and largely is a St. Paul+burbs district still.

MN-5 Rep. Ellison	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	740611	62/35.5	74/24	60/40	71/28
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Hennepin County	569459	65	33	61	37.5
Anoka County	171152	53	45	49	50

This district takes in the north half of Minneapolis (where Ellison resides) and includes all the suburbs to the west and then also to the north in Anoka County of Minneapolis, and then also picks up suburbs on the Hennepin/Anoka border and also Blaine.  Everything except Maple Grove and Plymouth are Democratic in Hennepin while the Anoka areas vary with Dem leaning to slight Repub suburbs.  Keith Ellison is really liberal but doesn’t cause very many waves and would still be safe here.

MN-6 Rep. Peterson	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	737087	47/51	47/50	43/55	43/55
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Kittson County	4505	58	40	50	49
Traverse County	3712	51	46	48	50
Stevens County	9624	49	48	47	51
Swift County	11192	55	42	55	43
Todd County	4378	43	54	41	57
Yellow Medicine County	10000	51	46	49	50
Lake of the Woods County	4095	42	55	38	60
Marshall County	9618	49	48	42	57
Becker County	31964	45	52	40	58
Polk County	30708	51	47	43	56
Pope County	11065	51	47	49	49
Clearwater County	8245	44	54	43	56
Red Lake County	4118	51	45	44	54
Mahnomen County	5129	61	36	53	45
Pennington County	13756	50	48	44	54
Clay County	54835	57	41	47	52
Otter Tail County	57031	42	55	37	61
Douglas County	36075	44	54	44	54
Grant County	6021	51	46	49	50
Big Stone County	5385	52	46	50	48
Lac qui Parle County	7258	52	46	53	46
Renville County	16132	48	49	45	53
Lyon County	24695	48	50	42	57
Beltrami County	43609	54	44	50	48
Roseau County	15946	40	58	31	68
Chippewa County	12465	52	46	52	47
Wilkin County	6418	45	52	33	65
Sibley County	15007	45	52	39	59
Kandiyohi County	40784	46	52	44	55
Norman County	6685	62	35	47	51
Hubbard County	18781	42	56	42	57
Wadena County	13382	40	58	39	59
McLeod County	9603	40	57	36.5	62
Meeker County	23211	43	54	43	56
Le Seur County	28034	47	51	45	54
Stearns County	2465	55	43	49	51
Wright County	4502	48	50	48	51
Martin County	20462	41	56	42	57
Brown County	26013	43	55	37	61
Murray County	8511	49	48	44	54
Jackson County	10883	47	51	46	52
Cottwonwood County	11349	46	52	43	56
Nobles County	20128	48	50	42	56
Pipestone County	9305	42	55	38	61
Rock County	9498	42	56	39	60
Faribault County	14869	46	51	43	55
Fillmore County	21037	53	44	49	50
Lincoln County	5877	49	48	47	52
Redwood County	15519	42	55	38	62
Watonwan County	3487	41	56	38	60

This is the old MN-7 with it having the same base and will have the same congresscritter.  The district had to expand and the only option was into CD1 as CD2 areas are way Republican and the old CD8 is a northern Iron Range district that consistently elect a pretty progressive Dem.  (Oberstar is a lot more liberal than one would think based off the district.)  I managed to only make this district a tick more Republican, which is pretty good considering the areas to expand were all Republican.

MN-7 Rep. Oberstar	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	737135	53/44	53/45	52/46	53/46
Cook County	5398	60	37	53	45
Lake County	10741	60	38	60	39
St. Louis County	200528	65	33	65	34
Carlton County	33893	62	35	63	36
Pine County	228164	49	48	50	49
Koochiching County	13459	54	44	50	48
ItascaCounty	44542	55	42	55	44
Cass County	28723	45	53	43	56
Crow Wing County	61648	45	53	42	57
Morrison County	32733	39	58	41	58
Mille Lacs County	26354	45	52	43	55
Kanabec County	16090	44	53	44	55
Aitkin County	15910	49	49	48	51
Chisago County	50128	44	54	43	56
Isanti County	38921	41	56	41	58
Benton County	39504	44	53	44	55
Stearns County	62549	53	46	50	48
Sherburne County	8160	57	40	56	42
Washington County	7655	43	51	42	57

This is the old CD8 with its base up north in Duluth and on the Iron Range.  Unlike what many have done, I left it completely intact except by removing Bemidji. I put in St. Cloud and then also included the colleges St. Ben’s and St. John’s which are blue.  It was tricky to figure out where to put St. Cloud since it is +2000 votes for Obama but the counties attached to it are all so Republian.  The district had to pick up counties south for population and I managed to make it a tick less Republican.  Oberstar is safe and so is his successor, House Majority Leader Sertich.  He could be speaker if Kelliher runs for governor, and he’s young so it’ll be in our hands for the next 50 years guaranteed.